摘要
2000—2001年川滇地区有大震震情趋势,应用GPS地形变测量(G),Kaiser效应法地应力测量(K)技术,采用GK联合并网方法,同步监测云南昆明—玉溪地区及邻区地形变场、地应力场;依托本构定律及岩石学组合判据,进行发震应力条件、发震几率、震级大小的分析研究;得出云南地区3~5年内不具备发生MS≥7.0大震的发震应力条件;同时划出滇东北形变高值区,10年左右有可能发生MS6.0~7.0地震。
From 2000 to 2001,there was trends of potential large earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yuan region.This paper investigated the application of a new technology combining the ground deformation measurement from GPS(G)and the crustal stress measurement from Kaiser effect(K).This technology simultaneously monitored the fields of ground deformation and crustal stress using combined G-K network.Based on the constitutive lawand rock mechanics criterion,the stress condition,probability,and magnitude of potential earthquake occurrence were analyzed.It concluded that the Yunnan region lacked the stress condition for large earthquakes of MS≥7.0.Northeast Yunnan was identified to have large ground deformation and earthquakes of MS6.0~7.0 that might occur in 10 years.Overall the conclusions were consistent with the actual occurrence of earthquakes in Yunnan.
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