对健康效用贴现率中Keeler-Cretin悖论加以变形的思考
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摘要
在进行药物经济学研究时,成本和收益在未来时点发生是非常常见的情况。对于成本和收益进行贴现也成为目前药物经济学研究的一种主流认知。然而,对于其成本和收益贴现率的选择,学术界目前尚未有统一的定论。通过介绍Keeler-Cretin悖论以及简单阐述收益和成本的贴现率应该保持一致的必要性,推导Keeler-Cretin悖论以及对推导过程加以变形从而使其更加符合逻辑,使得Keeler-Cretin悖论无法被"跳过"。
In pharmacoeconomic research, cost and benefit were very common in the future. Discounting cost and income had also became a mainstream cognition in pharmacoeconomics research. However, the academic community had not yet reached a unified conclusion on the choice of the discount rate of its cost and earnings. To introduce the Keeler-Cretin paradox and simply explain the necessity and method of keeping discount rates of income and cost consistent, Keeler-Cretin paradox was deduced and the deduction process was modified so as to make it more logical. The Keeler-Cretin paradox could not be "skipped" by discounting a single scheme at different time points.
In pharmacoeconomic research, cost and benefit were very common in the future. Discounting cost and income had also became a mainstream cognition in pharmacoeconomics research. However, the academic community had not yet reached a unified conclusion on the choice of the discount rate of its cost and earnings. To introduce the Keeler-Cretin paradox and simply explain the necessity and method of keeping discount rates of income and cost consistent, Keeler-Cretin paradox was deduced and the deduction process was modified so as to make it more logical. The Keeler-Cretin paradox could not be "skipped" by discounting a single scheme at different time points.
引文
[1]邓建良,孙利华.国外药物经济学评价中健康收益贴现率选择的主要考虑及其启示[J].中国新药杂志,2012(21):2470-2472.
[2]OLSEN J.A.Time preferences for health gains:an empirical investigation[J].Health economics,2010,2(3):257-265.
[3]KEELER E B,SHAN C.Discounting of life-saving and other nonmonetary effects[J].Management science,1983,29(3):300-306.
[4]CRETIN S.Cost/benefit analysis of treatment and prevention of myocardial infarction[J].Health services research,1977,12(2):174-189.
[5]GARBER A M,PHELPS C E.Economic foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis[J].Journal of health economics,1997,16(1):1-31.
[6]WEINSTEIN M C,STASON W B.Foundations of costeffectiveness analysis for health and medical practices[J].The New England journal of medicine,1977,296(13):716-721.
[7]NORD E.Discounting future health benefits:the poverty of consistency arguments[J].Health economics,2011,20(1):16-26.
[8]VAN HOUT B A.Discounting costs and effects:a reconsideration[J].Health economics,1998,7(7):581-594.
[9]孙利华,宗欣.对我国药物经济学评价中贴现率选择问题的思考[J].中国新药杂志,2010.19(9):737-739.
[10]ARROW K J.Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care[J].The American economic review,1963,53(5):941-973.
[11]SAKAI T,NAKASHIMA Y,SAKU K.Assessment of DPCimplemented to improve the cost effectiveness,the foundation of health insurance association,and the quality of health care[J].Journal of hypertension,2006,246(70):221.
[2]OLSEN J.A.Time preferences for health gains:an empirical investigation[J].Health economics,2010,2(3):257-265.
[3]KEELER E B,SHAN C.Discounting of life-saving and other nonmonetary effects[J].Management science,1983,29(3):300-306.
[4]CRETIN S.Cost/benefit analysis of treatment and prevention of myocardial infarction[J].Health services research,1977,12(2):174-189.
[5]GARBER A M,PHELPS C E.Economic foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis[J].Journal of health economics,1997,16(1):1-31.
[6]WEINSTEIN M C,STASON W B.Foundations of costeffectiveness analysis for health and medical practices[J].The New England journal of medicine,1977,296(13):716-721.
[7]NORD E.Discounting future health benefits:the poverty of consistency arguments[J].Health economics,2011,20(1):16-26.
[8]VAN HOUT B A.Discounting costs and effects:a reconsideration[J].Health economics,1998,7(7):581-594.
[9]孙利华,宗欣.对我国药物经济学评价中贴现率选择问题的思考[J].中国新药杂志,2010.19(9):737-739.
[10]ARROW K J.Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care[J].The American economic review,1963,53(5):941-973.
[11]SAKAI T,NAKASHIMA Y,SAKU K.Assessment of DPCimplemented to improve the cost effectiveness,the foundation of health insurance association,and the quality of health care[J].Journal of hypertension,2006,246(70):221.