基于Mann-kendall法的嘉陵江流域降水量时空分布规律
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摘要
选取嘉陵江流域11个气象站点经过处理的1961-2015年月降水量数据资料,以Mann-kendall非参数检验方法为主,分析嘉陵江流域降水量时空分布特征,为其水资源检测、评估和防治提供一定理论依据和基础.结果表明:(1)嘉陵江流域近55年年均降水量为977.7mm,整体上呈现出下降的趋势(Z=-0.56),且存在多个突变点;(2)降水量在春季和秋季均呈减小幅度,秋季最为明显(Z=-1.35),且主要集中在夏季,约占全年降水量的48.3%;(3)年均降水量空间分布总体表现为自东南向西北地区逐渐减少.遂宁地区降水量春季减小幅度最大(Z=-1.86),夏季上升最为明显(Z=2.49),秋季除武都地区增加(Z=0.21),其余地区均呈减小趋势,冬季巴中地区降水量上升幅度最大(Z=1.00).研究降水量的变化,预测和防治流域内旱涝和泥石流等气象灾害的发生,并在一定程度上预测未来气候变化趋势具有重要的意义.
In order to provide some theoretical foundation for water resource detection and evaluation and for meteorological disaster prediction and prevention,the monthly precipitation data of 1961-2015 from 11 meteorological stations in the Jialing River Basin were selected and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method was used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in this area.The results showed that the annual mean precipitation in the Jialing River Basin was 977.7 mm in the past 55 years(1961-2015),and it exhibited a decreasing trend(Z=-0.56).And there were multiple mutation points in precipitation.The precipitation in summer and winter showed a moderate upward trend,and the precipitation was mainly concentrated in summer,accounting for 48.3% of the annual precipitation;and the precipitation in spring and autumn showed a downward trend,being the most significant in autumn(Z=-1.35).The spatial distribution of the annual precipitation in the Jialing River Basin was uneven,increasing gradually from the southeast to the northwest.In Suining,the precipitation showed a decreasing trend in spring(Z=-1.86)and a significant rising trend in summer(Z=0.249).In autumn,the precipitation in all areas showed a decreasing trend except in Wudu,where autumn precipitation increased(Z=0.21).In winter,the precipitation in Bazhong area showed the greatest increase(Z=1.00).
In order to provide some theoretical foundation for water resource detection and evaluation and for meteorological disaster prediction and prevention,the monthly precipitation data of 1961-2015 from 11 meteorological stations in the Jialing River Basin were selected and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method was used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in this area.The results showed that the annual mean precipitation in the Jialing River Basin was 977.7 mm in the past 55 years(1961-2015),and it exhibited a decreasing trend(Z=-0.56).And there were multiple mutation points in precipitation.The precipitation in summer and winter showed a moderate upward trend,and the precipitation was mainly concentrated in summer,accounting for 48.3% of the annual precipitation;and the precipitation in spring and autumn showed a downward trend,being the most significant in autumn(Z=-1.35).The spatial distribution of the annual precipitation in the Jialing River Basin was uneven,increasing gradually from the southeast to the northwest.In Suining,the precipitation showed a decreasing trend in spring(Z=-1.86)and a significant rising trend in summer(Z=0.249).In autumn,the precipitation in all areas showed a decreasing trend except in Wudu,where autumn precipitation increased(Z=0.21).In winter,the precipitation in Bazhong area showed the greatest increase(Z=1.00).
引文
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[21]简虹,骆云中,谢德体.基于Mann-kendall法和小波分析的降水变化特征研究[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,36(4):217-222.
[22]普发贵.Mann-Kendall检验法在抚仙湖水质趋势分析中的应用[J].环境科学导刊,2014,33(6):83-86.
[23]蒋薇,张祖强,刘芸芸.21世纪以来西南地区干季降水与西太平洋副热带高压年代际变化的关系[J].气象,2016,42(11):1335—1341.
[24]胡浩然,梁玲.近50年西南地区降水的气候特征及区划[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,37(7):146-154.
[25]吴建峰,谭燕,安佑志,等.基于降水距平百分率的重庆市干旱特征分析[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(18):127-130.
[26]任国玉.气候变化与中国水资源[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:9.
[2]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):0519-0531.
[3]晏利斌.1961-2014年黄土高原气温和降水变化趋势[J].地球环境学报,2015,6(5):266-282.
[4]黄小燕,李耀辉,冯建英,等.中国西北地区降水量及极端干旱气候变化特征[J].生态学报,2015,35(5):1359-1370.
[5]康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量的时空分布规律[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):501.
[6]董满宇,吴正方.近50年来吉林省气温和降水变化趋势分析[J].东北师大学报(自然科学版),2007,39(3):114-119.
[7]丁锋,周顺武.近50年青岛夏季降水变化趋势及其可能原因[J].气象,2004,30(5):3-7.
[8]李学勇,秦大河,李家洋,等.气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[9]徐宗学,张玲,阮本清.北京地区降雨量时空分布规律分析[J].干旱区地理,2006,4(2):186-192.
[10]赵嘉阳,文辉,全锋.基于EOF的福建省降水量时空变化特征分析[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(2):73-79.
[11]张晓慧,谢世友,任伟.1951-2014年重庆市主城区降水变化特征分析—以沙坪坝区为例[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(4):104-109.
[12]刘勤,严昌荣,张燕卿,等.近50年黄河流域气温和降水量变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):475-480.
[13]曹玲,窦永祥.黑河流域降水的时空特征及预报方法[J].干旱气象,2005,23(2):35-38.
[14]褚健婷,夏军,许崇育,等.海河流域气象和水文降水资料对比分析及时空变异[J].地理学报,2009,64(9):1083-1092.
[15]许炯心.人类活动和降水变化对嘉陵江流域侵蚀产沙的影响[J].地理科学,2006,26(4):432-437.
[16]陈桂亚,CLARKE D.气候变化对嘉陵江流域水资源量的影响分析[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(4):14-18.
[17]高鹏,穆兴民,王炜.长江支流嘉陵江水沙变化趋势及其驱动因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(4):57-61.
[18]段文明,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域近50年降水量演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(1):97-101.
[19]曾小凡,叶磊,翟建青,等.嘉陵江流域极端降水变化及其对水文过程影响的初步探究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(Z1):159-164.
[20]蒋冲,王飞,张仁慧.渭河流域近52年日照时数和风速时空变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(5):228-233.
[27]杜华明,延军平,杨登兴,等.嘉陵江流域降水变化及旱涝多时间尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):836-845.
[21]简虹,骆云中,谢德体.基于Mann-kendall法和小波分析的降水变化特征研究[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,36(4):217-222.
[22]普发贵.Mann-Kendall检验法在抚仙湖水质趋势分析中的应用[J].环境科学导刊,2014,33(6):83-86.
[23]蒋薇,张祖强,刘芸芸.21世纪以来西南地区干季降水与西太平洋副热带高压年代际变化的关系[J].气象,2016,42(11):1335—1341.
[24]胡浩然,梁玲.近50年西南地区降水的气候特征及区划[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,37(7):146-154.
[25]吴建峰,谭燕,安佑志,等.基于降水距平百分率的重庆市干旱特征分析[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(18):127-130.
[26]任国玉.气候变化与中国水资源[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:9.