51a河北省降水时空分布及变化特征
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摘要
利用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、Mann-kendall突变性检验、滑动T检验、最大熵谱分析等方法,分析了河北省1961-2011年降水量的变化情况,结果表明:河北省年降水量空间分布不均,在燕山和太行山迎风坡一侧降水量较大,其中承德南部、唐山、秦皇岛年平均降水量较多,超过600 mm,张家口和承德北部年平均降水量较少,不足400 mm,各区降水量主要呈下降趋势,除故城、盐山、黄骅、昌黎、唐山、滦县、遵化外,大部分台站下降趋势不显著;河北省年降水量的空间分布既有"一致型",也存在"南北型";在时间变化上,除夏季降水量显著减少,5月(8月)显著增加(减少)外,年及其他月季降水量增减不明显;河北省年降水量整体存在2~3 a左右的变化周期,在1996年存在突变现象,而各季节降水量的变化有所不同。河北省降水量的时空特征符合河北地形特点及大尺度气候系统的变化规律。
The time-spatial characteristics of precipitation in Hebei Province,China during 1961-2011 were analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),Mann-kendall test,moving t-test,maximum entropy spectrum. The results showed that the spatial distribution of rainfall is very uneven and the greater precipitation lies on the side of the windward slope of Yanshan and Taihang Mountains. The large value center of precipitation which was greater than 600 mm lies on the southern Chengde,Tangshan,and Qinghuangdao. The precipitation had a downward trend in most area of Hebei. in addition to individual regions,the downward trend was not significant in most areas. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Hebei not only had the coherence in the whole area,but also showed variations from south to north. in time trend,the summer precipitation was decreased trend and the decreasing trend was anomaly significant. the increase(decrease)in May(August)was the most significant,but not significant changes in other momthly,seasonal,annual precipitation. there was a marked change among decades and years; there were abrupt changes and periods on annual and seasonal precipitation. The time-spatial distribution and variational characteristics conform with the terrain feature of Hebei and the variation discipline in large-scale climate system.
The time-spatial characteristics of precipitation in Hebei Province,China during 1961-2011 were analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),Mann-kendall test,moving t-test,maximum entropy spectrum. The results showed that the spatial distribution of rainfall is very uneven and the greater precipitation lies on the side of the windward slope of Yanshan and Taihang Mountains. The large value center of precipitation which was greater than 600 mm lies on the southern Chengde,Tangshan,and Qinghuangdao. The precipitation had a downward trend in most area of Hebei. in addition to individual regions,the downward trend was not significant in most areas. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Hebei not only had the coherence in the whole area,but also showed variations from south to north. in time trend,the summer precipitation was decreased trend and the decreasing trend was anomaly significant. the increase(decrease)in May(August)was the most significant,but not significant changes in other momthly,seasonal,annual precipitation. there was a marked change among decades and years; there were abrupt changes and periods on annual and seasonal precipitation. The time-spatial distribution and variational characteristics conform with the terrain feature of Hebei and the variation discipline in large-scale climate system.
引文
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[18]徐国昌,董安祥.我国西部降水量的准三年周期[J].高原气象,1982,1(2):11-17.[XU Guochang,DONG Anxiang.The quasithree year period of precipitation in the west of China[J].Plateau Meteorology,1982,1(2):11-17.]
[19]陈豫英,冯建民,陈楠,等.西北地区东部可利用降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(1):56-66.[CHEN Yuying,FENG Jianmin,CHEN Nan,et al.Spatial-temporal variation characteristic of the utilizable precipitation in eastern part of northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1):56-66.]
[20]刘波,肖子牛.1961-2005年新疆区域分级雨日(量)的气候特征[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(3):419-428.[LIU Bo,XIAO Ziniu.Climatic features of graded rain in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2005[J].Arid Land Geography,2011,34(3):419-428.]
[2]张国宏,李智才,宋燕,等.中国降水量变化的空间分布特征与东亚夏季风[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1):34-42.[ZHANG Guohong,LI Zhicai,SONG Yan,et a1.Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China and the role of east Asia summer monsoon[J].Arid Land Geography,2011,34(1):34-42.]
[3]徐维新,古松,苏文将,等.1971-2010年三江源地区干湿状况变化的空间特征[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(1):46-55.[XU Weisong,GU Song,SU Wenjiang,et al.Spatial pattern and its variations of aridity/humidity during 1971-2010 in Three-River Source Region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1):46-55.]
[4]高霞,李强.1961-2005年河北省降水气候特征及雨水资源的开发利用[J].气象与环境学报,2008,24(4):49-52.[GAO Xia,LI Qiang.Climatic characteristics of precipitation and exploitation and utilization of rainwater resource from 1961 to 2005 in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2008,24(4):49-52.]
[5]王春泽,王树峰.2004年河北省的降水特性[J].南水北调与水利科技,2005,3(2):170-175.[WANG Chunze,WANG Shufeng.The precipitation characteristic of Hebei Province in 2004[J].South-to-Nonh Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2005,3(2):170-175.]
[6]李月英,范俊红,于海磊,等.石家庄降水量和气温变化特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2009,3(2):31-34.[LI Yueying,FAN Junhong,YU Hailei,et al.Characteristics of precipitation and temperature variations in Shijiazhuang[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2009,3(2):31-34.]
[7]河北简介[EB/OL].http://china.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2010/07/07/011615270.shtml.[Introduce of hebei[EB/OL].http://china.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2010/07/07/011615270.shtml.]
[8]王晓东,潘学标,龙步菊,等.近50年来河北省降水和温度极端事件分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):170-175.[WANG Xiaodong,PAN Xuebiao,LONG Buju,et al.Analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature events in Hebei Province over last50 years[J].Chimese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(2):170-175.]
[9]朱业玉,顾万龙,王记芳,等.河南省汛期极端降水事件分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,5(18):495-500.[ZHU Yeyu,GU Wanlong,WANG Jifang,et al.Analysis on extreme precipitation events in flood season of Henan Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2009,5(18):495-500.]
[10]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999,42-148.[WEI Fengying.Modern diagnosis and prediction of climate statistics[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999,42-148.]
[11]包云,李晓兵,黄玲梅,等.1961-2007年内蒙古降水时空分布[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1):52-61.[BAO Yun,LI Xiaobing,HUANG Lingmei,et al.Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in Inner Mongolia from 1961-2007[J].Arid Land Geography,2011,34(1):52-61.]
[12]HOREL John D.A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the northern hemisphere 500 mb height field[J].Monthly Weather Review,1981,109:2080-2092.
[13]NORTH Gerald R,BELL Thomas L,CAHALAN Rober F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Monthly Weather Review,1982,110:699-706.
[14]周顺武,王传辉,吴萍,等.青藏高原强降水日数的时空分布特征[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(1):23-31.[ZHOU Shunwu,WANG Chuanhui,WU Ping,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of strong precipitation days over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1):23-31.]
[15]徐国强,藏建升,周伟灿.1998年京津冀夏季风的低频振荡与降水的特征[J].应用气象学报,2001,12(3):297-306.[XU Guoqiang,ZANG Jiansheng,ZHOU Weican.Features of summer monsoon LFO and LFR over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area in 1998[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2001,12(3):297-306.]
[16]周俊菊,石培基,师玮.1960-2009年石羊河流域气候变化及极端干湿事件演变特征[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(1):143-153.[ZHOU Junju,SHI Peiji,SHI Wei.Temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change and extreme dry and wet events in Shiyang River Basin from 1960 to 2009[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(1):143-153.]
[17]刘学锋,赵黎明,王颖.京津冀区域春夏季降水的气候变化[J].地理学与国土研究,2002,1(18):72-76.[LIU Xuefeng,ZHAO Liming,WANG Ying.The climatic variation of precipitation in Beijing Tianjin and Hebei in spring and sunmmer[J].Geography and Territorial Research,2002,1(18):72-76.]
[18]徐国昌,董安祥.我国西部降水量的准三年周期[J].高原气象,1982,1(2):11-17.[XU Guochang,DONG Anxiang.The quasithree year period of precipitation in the west of China[J].Plateau Meteorology,1982,1(2):11-17.]
[19]陈豫英,冯建民,陈楠,等.西北地区东部可利用降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(1):56-66.[CHEN Yuying,FENG Jianmin,CHEN Nan,et al.Spatial-temporal variation characteristic of the utilizable precipitation in eastern part of northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1):56-66.]
[20]刘波,肖子牛.1961-2005年新疆区域分级雨日(量)的气候特征[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(3):419-428.[LIU Bo,XIAO Ziniu.Climatic features of graded rain in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2005[J].Arid Land Geography,2011,34(3):419-428.]