城乡收入差距、要素流动与经济增长再研究——以重庆为例
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摘要
从经济主体行为出发,讨论了城乡收入差距与要素流动的内在关系,结合新经济地理学分析范式,对经济增长的空间演变规律进行了分析。最后,以重庆为例构建状态空间模型和STR模型并进行验证。结果表明:城乡收入差距与人口城镇化存在倒"U"关系,要素流动和政府参与度对缩小差距存在时滞性和时变性,城乡差距正向影响经济增长,但作用逐步放缓,且具有非线性转换特征。基于此,应加强区域化分工,促进要素合理流动;继续深化户籍改革,有序推进农业转移人口市民化;调整财政支出和农地流转政策,激活农村要素市场,保障农村经济长效增长。
Assuming that the behavior of economic agents,this paper discusses the inherent relationship between urban-rural income gap and factor mobility,and analyzes the spatial evolvement in above both elements and economic growth theoretically by the methods of the new economic geography. Finally,taking Chongqing as an example,it builds state-space model to testify. The results show that there's an inverted " U" relationship between the urban-rural income gap and population urbanization,the elements flow and participation in economic activities of the Government have time-lag effect and time-variation effect on narrowing the gap,and the gap have an impact effect on economic growth,but slowing down. Based on above,it is feasible to strengthen regional division of labor,promote the rational flow of factors,deepen the reform of household registration,adjust fiscal expenditure and the policy of land transfer,activate the rural factor markets,and ensure the rural economy growth.
Assuming that the behavior of economic agents,this paper discusses the inherent relationship between urban-rural income gap and factor mobility,and analyzes the spatial evolvement in above both elements and economic growth theoretically by the methods of the new economic geography. Finally,taking Chongqing as an example,it builds state-space model to testify. The results show that there's an inverted " U" relationship between the urban-rural income gap and population urbanization,the elements flow and participation in economic activities of the Government have time-lag effect and time-variation effect on narrowing the gap,and the gap have an impact effect on economic growth,but slowing down. Based on above,it is feasible to strengthen regional division of labor,promote the rational flow of factors,deepen the reform of household registration,adjust fiscal expenditure and the policy of land transfer,activate the rural factor markets,and ensure the rural economy growth.
引文
[1]Hayashi F,E Prescott.The Depressing Effect of Agricultural Institutionson the Prewar Japanese Economy[J].Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(4):573-632.
[2]张幼文,薛安伟.要素流动对世界经济增长的影响机理[J].软科学,2013(2):3-8.
[3]Persson T,G Tabellini.Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?[J].The Ameriean Economic Review,1994(84):600-621.
[4]Knack Stephen,Keefer Philip.Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff?A Cross-Country Investigation[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997(112):51-88.
[5]Kristin J,Forbes.A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth[J].The American Economic Review,2000(90):869-887.
[6]Barro.Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2000(65):5-32.
[7]陈钊,万广华,陆铭.行业间不平等:日益重要的城镇收入差距成因——基于回归方程的分解[J].中国社会科学,2010(03):65-76.
[8]吕炜,储德银.城乡居民收入差距与经济增长研究[J].经济学动态,2011(12):30-36.
[9]王小鲁,樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005(10):24-36.
[10]陈宗胜,高玉伟.关于公有经济收入差别倒U理论的讨论与验证(上)[J].经济社会体制比较,2012(02):18-27.
[11]刘田.中国城乡收入差距收敛性及倒U形检验[J].当代经济科学,2013(1):1-8.
[12]田新民,王少国,杨永恒.城乡收入差距变动及其对经济效率的影响[J].经济研究,2009(7):107-117.
1基尼系数与洛伦茨曲线也可得到类似结论,具体推导参见周云波2009年7月发表于《经济学(季刊)》上的“城市化、城乡差距以及全国居民总体收入差距的变动”一文。
1式(10)、式(11)括号中的值为T统计值。
[2]张幼文,薛安伟.要素流动对世界经济增长的影响机理[J].软科学,2013(2):3-8.
[3]Persson T,G Tabellini.Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?[J].The Ameriean Economic Review,1994(84):600-621.
[4]Knack Stephen,Keefer Philip.Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff?A Cross-Country Investigation[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997(112):51-88.
[5]Kristin J,Forbes.A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth[J].The American Economic Review,2000(90):869-887.
[6]Barro.Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2000(65):5-32.
[7]陈钊,万广华,陆铭.行业间不平等:日益重要的城镇收入差距成因——基于回归方程的分解[J].中国社会科学,2010(03):65-76.
[8]吕炜,储德银.城乡居民收入差距与经济增长研究[J].经济学动态,2011(12):30-36.
[9]王小鲁,樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005(10):24-36.
[10]陈宗胜,高玉伟.关于公有经济收入差别倒U理论的讨论与验证(上)[J].经济社会体制比较,2012(02):18-27.
[11]刘田.中国城乡收入差距收敛性及倒U形检验[J].当代经济科学,2013(1):1-8.
[12]田新民,王少国,杨永恒.城乡收入差距变动及其对经济效率的影响[J].经济研究,2009(7):107-117.
1基尼系数与洛伦茨曲线也可得到类似结论,具体推导参见周云波2009年7月发表于《经济学(季刊)》上的“城市化、城乡差距以及全国居民总体收入差距的变动”一文。
1式(10)、式(11)括号中的值为T统计值。