Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation
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摘要
The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.
The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.
The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.
引文
Alexander M A,BladéI,Newman M,et al.2002.The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.Journal of Climate,15(16):2205-2231,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2
Alexander M A,Matrosova L,Penland C,et al.2008.Forecasting Pacific SSTs:Linear inverse model predictions of the PDO.Journal of Climate,21(2):385-402,doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1849.1
Anderson J L.2001.An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation.Monthly Weather Review,129(12):2884-2903,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2884:AEAKFF>2.0.CO;2
Auad G,Miller A J,Roads J O.2004.Pacific ocean forecasts.Journal of Marine Systems,45(1-2):75-90,doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.11.010
Beattie J C,Elsberry R L.2012.Western North Pacific monsoon depression formation.Weather and Forecasting,27(6):1413-1432,doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00094.1
Chen Hui,Yin Xunqiang,Song Zhengya,et al.2015.The impacts of ocean data assimilation on tropical precipitation bias in a climate model.Haiyang Xuebao(in Chinese),37(7):41-53
Dai Aiguo.2006.Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models.Journal of Climate,19(18):4605-4630,doi:10.1175/JCLI3884.1
Di Lorenzo E,Cobb K M,Furtado J C,et al.2010.Central pacific El Ni?o and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean.Nature Geoscience,3(11):762-765,doi:10.1038/ngeo984
Duan Wansuo,Wu Yujie.2015.Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies.Climate Dynamics,44(3-4):1053-1072,doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2364-5
Ezer T,Mellor G L.1994.Continuous assimilation of geosat altimeter data into a three-dimensional primitive equation Gulf Stream model.Journal of Physical Oceanography,24(4):832-847,doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<0832:CAOGAD>2.0.CO;2
Ezer T,Mellor G L.1997.Simulations of the Atlantic ocean with a free surface sigma coordinate ocean model.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,102(C7):15647-15657,doi:10.1029/97JC00984
Goddard L.2012.Climate predictions,seasonal-to-decadal.In:Rasch P,ed.Climate Change Modeling Methodology.New York:Springer,261
Guilyardi E,Madec G.1997.Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21global ocean-atmosphere coupled model.Climate Dynamics,13(2):149-165,doi:10.1007/s003820050157
Haines K.1991.A direct method for assimilating sea surface height data into ocean models with adjustments to the deep circulation.Journal of Physical Oceanography,21(6):843-868,doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<0843:ADMFAS>2.0.CO;2
Hasselmann K.1991.Ocean circulation and climate change.Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,43(4):82-103,doi:10.3402/tellusa.v43i4.11939
Hu Zengzhen,Huang Bohua.2009.Interferential impact of ENSO and PDO on dry and wet conditions in the U.S.Great Plains.Journal of Climate,22(22):6047-6065,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2798.1
Hu Zengzhen,Kumar A,Huang Bohua,et al.2014.Prediction skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2:Impact of ENSO and beyond.Journal of Climate,27(11):4263-4272,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00633.1
Huang Chuanjiang,Qiao Fangli,Shu Qi,et al.2012.Evaluating austral summer mixed-layer response to surface wave-induced mixing in the Southern Ocean.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,117(C11):C00J18
Huang Chuanjiang,Qiao Fangli,Song Zhenya,et al.2011.Improving simulations of the upper ocean by inclusion of surface waves in the Mellor-Yamada turbulence scheme.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,116(C1):C01007
Kelly K A,Small R J,Samelson R M,et al.2010.Western boundary currents and frontal air-sea interaction:gulf stream and Kuroshio Extension.Journal of Climate,23(21):5644-5667,doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3346.1
Kim H M,Webster P J,Curry J A.2012.Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter.Climate Dynamics,39(12):2957-2973,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6
Kwon Y O,Alexander M A,Bond N A,et al.2010.Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction:a review.Journal of Climate,23(12):3249-3281,doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3343.1
Landman W A,Mason S J.2001.Forecasts of near-global sea surface temperatures using canonical correlation analysis.Journal of Climate,14(18):3819-3833,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3819:FONGSS>2.0.CO;2
Latif M,Barnett T P.1994.Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America.Science,266(5185):634-637,doi:10.1126/science.266.5185.634
Lau K M,Lee J Y,Kim K M,et al.2004.The North Pacific as a regulator of summertime climate over Eurasia and North America.Journal of Climate,17(4):819-833,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0819:TNPAAR>2.0.CO;2
Lau N C,Nath M J.1994.A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system.Journal of Climate,7(7):1184-1207
Lau N C,Nath M J.1996.The role of the"atmospheric bridge"in linking tropical Pacific ENSO events to extratropical SST anomalies.Journal of Climate,9(9):2036-2057,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2036:TROTBI>2.0.CO;2
Li Gang,Chen Jiepeng,Wang Xin,et al.2017.Modulation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship of El Ni?o with southern China rainfall during early boreal winter.Atmospheric Science Letters,18(8):336-341,doi:10.1002/asl.761
Lienert F.2011.Simulation and Prediction of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Victoria:University of Victoria.
Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Yuan,et al.1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,78(6):1069-1079,doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2
Namias J,Born R M.1970.Temporal coherence in North Pacific seasurface temperature patterns.Journal of Geophysical Research,75(30):5952-5955,doi:10.1029/JC075i030p05952
Overland J E,Alheit J,Bakun A,et al.2010.Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations.Journal of Marine Systems,79(3-4):305-315,doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.009
Qiao Fangli,Song Zhenya,Bao Ying,et al.2013.Development and evaluation of an Earth System Model with surface gravity waves.Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,118(9):4514-4524,doi:10.1002/jgrc.20327
Qiao F L,Yuan Y L,Ezer T,et al.2010.A three-dimensional surface wave-ocean circulation coupled model and its initial testing.Ocean Dynamics,60(5):1339-1355,doi:10.1007/s10236-010-0326-y
Qiao Fangli,Yuan Yeli,Yang Yongzeng,et al.2004.Wave-induced mixing in the upper ocean:Distribution and application to a global ocean circulation model.Geophysical Research Letters,31(11):L11303
Ratheesh S,Sharma R,Basu S.2012.Projection-based assimilation of satellite-derived surface data in an Indian ocean circulation model.Marine Geodesy,35(2):175-187,doi:10.1080/01490419.2011.637855
Shu Qi,Qiao Fangli,Bao Ying,et al.2015.Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulation by FIO-ESM based on data assimilation experiment.Haiyang Xuebao(in Chinese),37(11):33-40
Song Zhenya,Qiao Fangli,Lei Xiaoyan,et al.2007.The establishment of an atmosphere-wave-ocean circulation coupled numerical model and its application in the North Pacific SST simulation.Journal of Hydrodynamics(in Chinese),22(5):543-548
Song Zhenya,Shu Qi,Bao Ying,et al.2015.The prediction on the2015/16 El Ni?o event from the perspective of FIO-ESM.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,34(12):67-71,doi:10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4
Wang Xin,Wang Dongxiao,Zhou Wen.2009.Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Ni?o and La Ni?a occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models.Geophysical Research Letters,36(11):L11701,doi:10.1029/2009GL037929
Wen Caihong,Xue Yan,Kumar A.2012.Seasonal prediction of North Pacific SSTs and PDO in the NCEP CFS hindcasts.Journal of Climate,25(17):5689-5710,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00556.1
Xing Wen,Wang Bin,Yim S Y.2016.Long-lead seasonal prediction of China summer rainfall using an EOF-PLS regression-based methodology.Journal of Climate,29(5):1783-1796,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0016.1
Yeh S W,Wang Xin,Wang Chuanzai,et al.2015.On the relationship between the North Pacific climate variability and the central Pacific El Ni?o.Journal of Climate,28(2):663-677,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00137.1
Yin Xunqiang.2015.Development of assimilation module for ensemble adjustment Kalman filter and its applications in ocean and climate system models(in Chinese)[dissertation].Qingdao:Ocean University of China
Yin Xunqiang,Qiao Fangli,Yang Yongzeng,et al.2010.An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter study for Argo data.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,28(3):626-635,doi:10.1007/s00343-010-9017-2
Yu Jinyi,Wang Xin,Yang Song,et al.2017.The changing El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and associated climate extremes.In:Wang S Y S,Yoon J H,Fuck C C,et al.,eds.Climate Extremes:Patterns and Mechanisms.Hoboken,NJ:AGU Geophysical Monograph Series,226:3-38
Yuan Y,Qiao F,Hua F,et al.1999.The development of a coastal circulation numerical model:1.Wave-induced mixing and wavecurrent interaction.Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics(in Chinese),14:1-8
Zhang Ying,Zhu Jieshun,Li Zhongxian,et al.2017.Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme.Climate Dynamics,49(3):1049-1059,doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3100-0
Zhao Xia,Li Jianping,Zhang Wenjun.2012.Summer persistence barrier of sea surface temperature anomalies in the central western north pacific.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,29(6):1159-1173,doi:10.1007/s00376-012-1253-2
Zhou Wen,Li Chongyin,Wang Xin.2007.Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and east Asian winter monsoon.Geophysical Research Letters,34(1):L01701
Zhu Jieshun,Kumar A,Wang Hui,et al.2015.Sea surface temperature predictions in NCEP CFSv2 using a simple ocean initialization scheme.Monthly Weather Review,143(8):3176-3191,doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00297.1
Alexander M A,Matrosova L,Penland C,et al.2008.Forecasting Pacific SSTs:Linear inverse model predictions of the PDO.Journal of Climate,21(2):385-402,doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1849.1
Anderson J L.2001.An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation.Monthly Weather Review,129(12):2884-2903,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2884:AEAKFF>2.0.CO;2
Auad G,Miller A J,Roads J O.2004.Pacific ocean forecasts.Journal of Marine Systems,45(1-2):75-90,doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.11.010
Beattie J C,Elsberry R L.2012.Western North Pacific monsoon depression formation.Weather and Forecasting,27(6):1413-1432,doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00094.1
Chen Hui,Yin Xunqiang,Song Zhengya,et al.2015.The impacts of ocean data assimilation on tropical precipitation bias in a climate model.Haiyang Xuebao(in Chinese),37(7):41-53
Dai Aiguo.2006.Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models.Journal of Climate,19(18):4605-4630,doi:10.1175/JCLI3884.1
Di Lorenzo E,Cobb K M,Furtado J C,et al.2010.Central pacific El Ni?o and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean.Nature Geoscience,3(11):762-765,doi:10.1038/ngeo984
Duan Wansuo,Wu Yujie.2015.Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies.Climate Dynamics,44(3-4):1053-1072,doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2364-5
Ezer T,Mellor G L.1994.Continuous assimilation of geosat altimeter data into a three-dimensional primitive equation Gulf Stream model.Journal of Physical Oceanography,24(4):832-847,doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<0832:CAOGAD>2.0.CO;2
Ezer T,Mellor G L.1997.Simulations of the Atlantic ocean with a free surface sigma coordinate ocean model.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,102(C7):15647-15657,doi:10.1029/97JC00984
Goddard L.2012.Climate predictions,seasonal-to-decadal.In:Rasch P,ed.Climate Change Modeling Methodology.New York:Springer,261
Guilyardi E,Madec G.1997.Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21global ocean-atmosphere coupled model.Climate Dynamics,13(2):149-165,doi:10.1007/s003820050157
Haines K.1991.A direct method for assimilating sea surface height data into ocean models with adjustments to the deep circulation.Journal of Physical Oceanography,21(6):843-868,doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<0843:ADMFAS>2.0.CO;2
Hasselmann K.1991.Ocean circulation and climate change.Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,43(4):82-103,doi:10.3402/tellusa.v43i4.11939
Hu Zengzhen,Huang Bohua.2009.Interferential impact of ENSO and PDO on dry and wet conditions in the U.S.Great Plains.Journal of Climate,22(22):6047-6065,doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2798.1
Hu Zengzhen,Kumar A,Huang Bohua,et al.2014.Prediction skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2:Impact of ENSO and beyond.Journal of Climate,27(11):4263-4272,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00633.1
Huang Chuanjiang,Qiao Fangli,Shu Qi,et al.2012.Evaluating austral summer mixed-layer response to surface wave-induced mixing in the Southern Ocean.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,117(C11):C00J18
Huang Chuanjiang,Qiao Fangli,Song Zhenya,et al.2011.Improving simulations of the upper ocean by inclusion of surface waves in the Mellor-Yamada turbulence scheme.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,116(C1):C01007
Kelly K A,Small R J,Samelson R M,et al.2010.Western boundary currents and frontal air-sea interaction:gulf stream and Kuroshio Extension.Journal of Climate,23(21):5644-5667,doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3346.1
Kim H M,Webster P J,Curry J A.2012.Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter.Climate Dynamics,39(12):2957-2973,doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6
Kwon Y O,Alexander M A,Bond N A,et al.2010.Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction:a review.Journal of Climate,23(12):3249-3281,doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3343.1
Landman W A,Mason S J.2001.Forecasts of near-global sea surface temperatures using canonical correlation analysis.Journal of Climate,14(18):3819-3833,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3819:FONGSS>2.0.CO;2
Latif M,Barnett T P.1994.Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America.Science,266(5185):634-637,doi:10.1126/science.266.5185.634
Lau K M,Lee J Y,Kim K M,et al.2004.The North Pacific as a regulator of summertime climate over Eurasia and North America.Journal of Climate,17(4):819-833,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0819:TNPAAR>2.0.CO;2
Lau N C,Nath M J.1994.A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system.Journal of Climate,7(7):1184-1207
Lau N C,Nath M J.1996.The role of the"atmospheric bridge"in linking tropical Pacific ENSO events to extratropical SST anomalies.Journal of Climate,9(9):2036-2057,doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2036:TROTBI>2.0.CO;2
Li Gang,Chen Jiepeng,Wang Xin,et al.2017.Modulation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship of El Ni?o with southern China rainfall during early boreal winter.Atmospheric Science Letters,18(8):336-341,doi:10.1002/asl.761
Lienert F.2011.Simulation and Prediction of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Victoria:University of Victoria.
Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Yuan,et al.1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,78(6):1069-1079,doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2
Namias J,Born R M.1970.Temporal coherence in North Pacific seasurface temperature patterns.Journal of Geophysical Research,75(30):5952-5955,doi:10.1029/JC075i030p05952
Overland J E,Alheit J,Bakun A,et al.2010.Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations.Journal of Marine Systems,79(3-4):305-315,doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.009
Qiao Fangli,Song Zhenya,Bao Ying,et al.2013.Development and evaluation of an Earth System Model with surface gravity waves.Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,118(9):4514-4524,doi:10.1002/jgrc.20327
Qiao F L,Yuan Y L,Ezer T,et al.2010.A three-dimensional surface wave-ocean circulation coupled model and its initial testing.Ocean Dynamics,60(5):1339-1355,doi:10.1007/s10236-010-0326-y
Qiao Fangli,Yuan Yeli,Yang Yongzeng,et al.2004.Wave-induced mixing in the upper ocean:Distribution and application to a global ocean circulation model.Geophysical Research Letters,31(11):L11303
Ratheesh S,Sharma R,Basu S.2012.Projection-based assimilation of satellite-derived surface data in an Indian ocean circulation model.Marine Geodesy,35(2):175-187,doi:10.1080/01490419.2011.637855
Shu Qi,Qiao Fangli,Bao Ying,et al.2015.Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulation by FIO-ESM based on data assimilation experiment.Haiyang Xuebao(in Chinese),37(11):33-40
Song Zhenya,Qiao Fangli,Lei Xiaoyan,et al.2007.The establishment of an atmosphere-wave-ocean circulation coupled numerical model and its application in the North Pacific SST simulation.Journal of Hydrodynamics(in Chinese),22(5):543-548
Song Zhenya,Shu Qi,Bao Ying,et al.2015.The prediction on the2015/16 El Ni?o event from the perspective of FIO-ESM.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,34(12):67-71,doi:10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4
Wang Xin,Wang Dongxiao,Zhou Wen.2009.Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Ni?o and La Ni?a occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models.Geophysical Research Letters,36(11):L11701,doi:10.1029/2009GL037929
Wen Caihong,Xue Yan,Kumar A.2012.Seasonal prediction of North Pacific SSTs and PDO in the NCEP CFS hindcasts.Journal of Climate,25(17):5689-5710,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00556.1
Xing Wen,Wang Bin,Yim S Y.2016.Long-lead seasonal prediction of China summer rainfall using an EOF-PLS regression-based methodology.Journal of Climate,29(5):1783-1796,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0016.1
Yeh S W,Wang Xin,Wang Chuanzai,et al.2015.On the relationship between the North Pacific climate variability and the central Pacific El Ni?o.Journal of Climate,28(2):663-677,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00137.1
Yin Xunqiang.2015.Development of assimilation module for ensemble adjustment Kalman filter and its applications in ocean and climate system models(in Chinese)[dissertation].Qingdao:Ocean University of China
Yin Xunqiang,Qiao Fangli,Yang Yongzeng,et al.2010.An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter study for Argo data.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,28(3):626-635,doi:10.1007/s00343-010-9017-2
Yu Jinyi,Wang Xin,Yang Song,et al.2017.The changing El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and associated climate extremes.In:Wang S Y S,Yoon J H,Fuck C C,et al.,eds.Climate Extremes:Patterns and Mechanisms.Hoboken,NJ:AGU Geophysical Monograph Series,226:3-38
Yuan Y,Qiao F,Hua F,et al.1999.The development of a coastal circulation numerical model:1.Wave-induced mixing and wavecurrent interaction.Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics(in Chinese),14:1-8
Zhang Ying,Zhu Jieshun,Li Zhongxian,et al.2017.Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme.Climate Dynamics,49(3):1049-1059,doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3100-0
Zhao Xia,Li Jianping,Zhang Wenjun.2012.Summer persistence barrier of sea surface temperature anomalies in the central western north pacific.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,29(6):1159-1173,doi:10.1007/s00376-012-1253-2
Zhou Wen,Li Chongyin,Wang Xin.2007.Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and east Asian winter monsoon.Geophysical Research Letters,34(1):L01701
Zhu Jieshun,Kumar A,Wang Hui,et al.2015.Sea surface temperature predictions in NCEP CFSv2 using a simple ocean initialization scheme.Monthly Weather Review,143(8):3176-3191,doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00297.1