An approach to grading coalbed methane resources in China for the purpose of implementing a differential production subsidy
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摘要
The heterogeneity of coalbed methane(CBM) resources was not taken into account when the current indiscriminate subsidy policy was developed. In it, limited subsidy funds are given first to high-quality resources and even to subsidize profitable projects. Thus, the policy has had less than the intended effect in improving CBM production. To implement a new type of differential subsidy, it is necessary to grade the CBM resources, as will be discussed in this paper. After the factors affecting the resources value are systemically examined, sorted and merged, the relationship between the key factors and economic value is analyzed by an engineering economics method, and the production profile type, peak production(or stable production) and buried depth are used as grading factors. The production profile type is used to categorize, and peak production and buried depth are used to grade resources within the same category. The grading method is as follows: use subsidy levels at the economic critical point(NPV = 0) to identify the grades of resources, and determine the combination of peak production and buried depth for different resources grades base on indifference curves drawn according to the relationship between the economic value and peak production and buried depth.
The heterogeneity of coalbed methane(CBM) resources was not taken into account when the current indiscriminate subsidy policy was developed. In it, limited subsidy funds are given first to high-quality resources and even to subsidize profitable projects. Thus, the policy has had less than the intended effect in improving CBM production. To implement a new type of differential subsidy, it is necessary to grade the CBM resources, as will be discussed in this paper. After the factors affecting the resources value are systemically examined, sorted and merged, the relationship between the key factors and economic value is analyzed by an engineering economics method, and the production profile type, peak production(or stable production) and buried depth are used as grading factors. The production profile type is used to categorize, and peak production and buried depth are used to grade resources within the same category. The grading method is as follows: use subsidy levels at the economic critical point(NPV = 0) to identify the grades of resources, and determine the combination of peak production and buried depth for different resources grades base on indifference curves drawn according to the relationship between the economic value and peak production and buried depth.
The heterogeneity of coalbed methane(CBM) resources was not taken into account when the current indiscriminate subsidy policy was developed. In it, limited subsidy funds are given first to high-quality resources and even to subsidize profitable projects. Thus, the policy has had less than the intended effect in improving CBM production. To implement a new type of differential subsidy, it is necessary to grade the CBM resources, as will be discussed in this paper. After the factors affecting the resources value are systemically examined, sorted and merged, the relationship between the key factors and economic value is analyzed by an engineering economics method, and the production profile type, peak production(or stable production) and buried depth are used as grading factors. The production profile type is used to categorize, and peak production and buried depth are used to grade resources within the same category. The grading method is as follows: use subsidy levels at the economic critical point(NPV = 0) to identify the grades of resources, and determine the combination of peak production and buried depth for different resources grades base on indifference curves drawn according to the relationship between the economic value and peak production and buried depth.
引文
BP. BP statistical review of world energy 2016. 2016. http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview.
Chen ZH,Wang YB,Chen JS,et al. Factors influencing single well coal-bed methane production:a case from the Fanzhuang Block in the south part of the Qinshui Basin. Acta Pet Sin.2009;03:409-12. https://doi.org/10.7623/syxb200903016(in Chinese).
CNPC(China National Petroleum Corporation). Reference index of long-distance transport pipeline project investment. Beijing:China Petroleum Engineering Cost Management Center; 2012(in Chinese).
Ding H,Dai RF. A study of China's fiscal policies for unconventional hydrocarbon industry. Sino-Glob Eng. 2013;18(5):33-6(in Chinese).
Fuertez J, Nguyen V, McLennan JD, et al. Optimization of biogenic methane production from coal. Int J Coal Geol. 2017; 183:14-24.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2017.09.014.
Knoll MS. The crude oil windfall profit tax act of 1980. Resour Energy.1987;9(2):163-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0572(87)90016-8.
Langenberg CW, Beaton A, Berhane H. Regional evaluation of the coalbed-methane potential of the Foothills/Mountains of Alberta, Canada. Int J Coal Geol. 2006;65:114-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2005.04.010.
Li YH, Zhang SA, Wang H. Analysis of the effect of geological conditions in the economic evaluation of coal bed methane exploitation projects. Coal Geol China. 2000;02:27-9. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-1803.2000.02.009(in Chinese).
Li N, Li Y, Lv B, et al. Thoughts on collection of compensation fees for offshore oil and gas resources in China. Nat Resour Econ China. 2014;2:43-5. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn. 1672-6995,2014.02.011(in Chinese).
Li WD, Luo DK, Yuan JH. A new approach for the comprehensive grading of petroleum reserves in China:two natural gas examples. Energy. 2016;118:914-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energ y.2016.10.125.
Liu YL, Zhang PH. Analysis of production dynamics and main controlling factors of single coalbed methane(CBM)wells in the Liulin area. Coal Geol Explor. 2016;02:34-8(in Chinese).
Logan JS. Crude oil"Windfall Profit"tax act of 1980. Energy Law J.1980;1:2.
Luo DK. Oil and gas exploration investment economic evaluation methods. Pet Geol Recov Effic. 2002;01:21-3. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn. 1009-9603.2002.01.006(in Chinese).
Luo DK. A study of petroleum tax reform. Tax Res. 2005;10:42-4(in Chinese).
Luo DK, Dai YJ. Economic evaluation of coalbed methane production in China. Energy Policy. 2009;37(10):3883-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.049.
Luo DK, Xia LY. An economic evaluation method of coalbed methane resources during the target selection phase of exploration. Pet Sci.2015;12(4):705-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-015-0053-6.
Luo DK, Wu XD, Zhang BS. Technical and economic evaluation of coalbed methane resources in China. Beijing:Coal Ind Press;2015(in Chinese).
Ministry of Construction, People's Republic of China. Petroleum construction project economic evaluation methods and parameters.Beijing:China Planning Press; 2010(in Chinese).
Ministry of Finance, People's Republic of China. To improve the production subsidy standard of coal bed methane to 0.3 CNY/m3.China Coal. 2016;04:98(in Chinese).
Ministry of Land and Resources Oil and Gas Resources Strategy Research Center,People's Republic of China. National petroleum resource assessment. Beijing:China Land Press; 2015(in Chinese).
Ministry of Land and Resources, People's Republic of China. Specifications for coalbed methane resources/reserves. Beijing:China Standard Press; 2011(in Chinese).
Qin JY, Zhou J, Zhou ZS. Key influencing factors of productivity of coalbed methane in wells of the Liujia area Fuxin basin. J Liaoning Tech Univ(Nat Sci). 2008;S1:28-30(in Chinese).
Qin Y, Li YM, Bai JM, et al. Technologies in the CBM drainage and production of wells in the southern Qinshui basin with high-rank coal beds. Nat Gas Ind. 2011;11:22-5. https://doi.org/10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2011.11.006(in Chinese).
Salmachi A, Yarmohammadtooski Z. Production data analysis of coalbed methane wells to estimate the time required to reach to peak of gas production. Int J Coal Geol. 2015;141-142:33-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2015.02.006.
Shao XJ, Wang CF, Tang DZ, et al. Productivity mode and controlling factors of coalbed methane wells:a case from the Hancheng region. Coal Acta. 2013;02:271-6(in Chinese).
Verleger PK. An assessment of the effects of the windfall profits tax on crude oil supply. Energy J. 1980;1(4):41-58. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-3.
Wang T, Lin BQ. Impacts of unconventional gas development on China's natural gas production and import. Renew Sustain Energy Rev. 2014;39:546-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.103.
Wang GQ, Xi MY, Wu JH, et al. Description and analysis of typical production characteristics of coalbed methane wells in the Panhe area. Nat Gas Ind. 2007;07:83-5. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0976.2007.07.024(in Chinese).
Wang CW, Peng XL, Jia CS, et al. Production stage and productivity model division of coalbed methane in the Zaoyuan block. ReservEval Dev. 2016a;04:74-8. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.2095-1426.2016.03.015(in Chinese).
Wang JL, Mohr S, Feng LY, et al. Analysis of resource potential for China's unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth. Energy Policy. 2016b;88:389-401. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.042.
Xia LY, Luo DK. A method for calculating economic critical depth of shale gas resources in China via break-even analysis. J Nat Gas Sci Eng. 2014;21:1091-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2014.11.004.
Yuan JH, Luo DK, Xia LY, et al. Policy recommendations to promote shale gas development in China based on a technical and economic evaluation. Energy Policy. 2015;85:194-206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.006.
Zhang PH. Study of CBM well capacity grading schemes. China Coalbed Methane. 2007;01:27-9. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-3074.2007.01.007(in Chinese).
Zhang AX, Zhang XY, Yao Z, et al. CBM well productivity analysis in the Hancheng model area. China Coal Geol. 2013;11:27-30(in Chinese).
Zhang X, Jiao HB, Zhao ZY, et al. A study of fiscal and financial policies to accelerate the development of the coalbed methane industry in China. China Price. 2015;05:61-3(in Chinese).
Zheng AH, Feng XY, Zheng XH, et al. Comparison of foreign coalbed methane exploitation policies and its enlightenment to China.Nat Resour Econ China. 2009;03:31-2. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-6995.2009.03.012(in Chinese).
Zhu LH, Yuan JH, Luo DK. A new approach to estimating surface facility costs for shale gas development. J Nat Gas Sci Eng. 2016;2016(36):202-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.10.013.
Chen ZH,Wang YB,Chen JS,et al. Factors influencing single well coal-bed methane production:a case from the Fanzhuang Block in the south part of the Qinshui Basin. Acta Pet Sin.2009;03:409-12. https://doi.org/10.7623/syxb200903016(in Chinese).
CNPC(China National Petroleum Corporation). Reference index of long-distance transport pipeline project investment. Beijing:China Petroleum Engineering Cost Management Center; 2012(in Chinese).
Ding H,Dai RF. A study of China's fiscal policies for unconventional hydrocarbon industry. Sino-Glob Eng. 2013;18(5):33-6(in Chinese).
Fuertez J, Nguyen V, McLennan JD, et al. Optimization of biogenic methane production from coal. Int J Coal Geol. 2017; 183:14-24.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2017.09.014.
Knoll MS. The crude oil windfall profit tax act of 1980. Resour Energy.1987;9(2):163-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0572(87)90016-8.
Langenberg CW, Beaton A, Berhane H. Regional evaluation of the coalbed-methane potential of the Foothills/Mountains of Alberta, Canada. Int J Coal Geol. 2006;65:114-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2005.04.010.
Li YH, Zhang SA, Wang H. Analysis of the effect of geological conditions in the economic evaluation of coal bed methane exploitation projects. Coal Geol China. 2000;02:27-9. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-1803.2000.02.009(in Chinese).
Li N, Li Y, Lv B, et al. Thoughts on collection of compensation fees for offshore oil and gas resources in China. Nat Resour Econ China. 2014;2:43-5. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn. 1672-6995,2014.02.011(in Chinese).
Li WD, Luo DK, Yuan JH. A new approach for the comprehensive grading of petroleum reserves in China:two natural gas examples. Energy. 2016;118:914-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energ y.2016.10.125.
Liu YL, Zhang PH. Analysis of production dynamics and main controlling factors of single coalbed methane(CBM)wells in the Liulin area. Coal Geol Explor. 2016;02:34-8(in Chinese).
Logan JS. Crude oil"Windfall Profit"tax act of 1980. Energy Law J.1980;1:2.
Luo DK. Oil and gas exploration investment economic evaluation methods. Pet Geol Recov Effic. 2002;01:21-3. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn. 1009-9603.2002.01.006(in Chinese).
Luo DK. A study of petroleum tax reform. Tax Res. 2005;10:42-4(in Chinese).
Luo DK, Dai YJ. Economic evaluation of coalbed methane production in China. Energy Policy. 2009;37(10):3883-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.06.049.
Luo DK, Xia LY. An economic evaluation method of coalbed methane resources during the target selection phase of exploration. Pet Sci.2015;12(4):705-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-015-0053-6.
Luo DK, Wu XD, Zhang BS. Technical and economic evaluation of coalbed methane resources in China. Beijing:Coal Ind Press;2015(in Chinese).
Ministry of Construction, People's Republic of China. Petroleum construction project economic evaluation methods and parameters.Beijing:China Planning Press; 2010(in Chinese).
Ministry of Finance, People's Republic of China. To improve the production subsidy standard of coal bed methane to 0.3 CNY/m3.China Coal. 2016;04:98(in Chinese).
Ministry of Land and Resources Oil and Gas Resources Strategy Research Center,People's Republic of China. National petroleum resource assessment. Beijing:China Land Press; 2015(in Chinese).
Ministry of Land and Resources, People's Republic of China. Specifications for coalbed methane resources/reserves. Beijing:China Standard Press; 2011(in Chinese).
Qin JY, Zhou J, Zhou ZS. Key influencing factors of productivity of coalbed methane in wells of the Liujia area Fuxin basin. J Liaoning Tech Univ(Nat Sci). 2008;S1:28-30(in Chinese).
Qin Y, Li YM, Bai JM, et al. Technologies in the CBM drainage and production of wells in the southern Qinshui basin with high-rank coal beds. Nat Gas Ind. 2011;11:22-5. https://doi.org/10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2011.11.006(in Chinese).
Salmachi A, Yarmohammadtooski Z. Production data analysis of coalbed methane wells to estimate the time required to reach to peak of gas production. Int J Coal Geol. 2015;141-142:33-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2015.02.006.
Shao XJ, Wang CF, Tang DZ, et al. Productivity mode and controlling factors of coalbed methane wells:a case from the Hancheng region. Coal Acta. 2013;02:271-6(in Chinese).
Verleger PK. An assessment of the effects of the windfall profits tax on crude oil supply. Energy J. 1980;1(4):41-58. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-3.
Wang T, Lin BQ. Impacts of unconventional gas development on China's natural gas production and import. Renew Sustain Energy Rev. 2014;39:546-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.103.
Wang GQ, Xi MY, Wu JH, et al. Description and analysis of typical production characteristics of coalbed methane wells in the Panhe area. Nat Gas Ind. 2007;07:83-5. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0976.2007.07.024(in Chinese).
Wang CW, Peng XL, Jia CS, et al. Production stage and productivity model division of coalbed methane in the Zaoyuan block. ReservEval Dev. 2016a;04:74-8. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.2095-1426.2016.03.015(in Chinese).
Wang JL, Mohr S, Feng LY, et al. Analysis of resource potential for China's unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth. Energy Policy. 2016b;88:389-401. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.042.
Xia LY, Luo DK. A method for calculating economic critical depth of shale gas resources in China via break-even analysis. J Nat Gas Sci Eng. 2014;21:1091-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2014.11.004.
Yuan JH, Luo DK, Xia LY, et al. Policy recommendations to promote shale gas development in China based on a technical and economic evaluation. Energy Policy. 2015;85:194-206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.006.
Zhang PH. Study of CBM well capacity grading schemes. China Coalbed Methane. 2007;01:27-9. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-3074.2007.01.007(in Chinese).
Zhang AX, Zhang XY, Yao Z, et al. CBM well productivity analysis in the Hancheng model area. China Coal Geol. 2013;11:27-30(in Chinese).
Zhang X, Jiao HB, Zhao ZY, et al. A study of fiscal and financial policies to accelerate the development of the coalbed methane industry in China. China Price. 2015;05:61-3(in Chinese).
Zheng AH, Feng XY, Zheng XH, et al. Comparison of foreign coalbed methane exploitation policies and its enlightenment to China.Nat Resour Econ China. 2009;03:31-2. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1672-6995.2009.03.012(in Chinese).
Zhu LH, Yuan JH, Luo DK. A new approach to estimating surface facility costs for shale gas development. J Nat Gas Sci Eng. 2016;2016(36):202-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.10.013.