基于人-机-环境因素的未来交通事故风险研究
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摘要
基于人-机-环境系统工程理论,调研自动驾驶车辆和中国交通事故形态的发展趋势,综合考虑人、车、路因素的变化,推测未来可能出现的新的交通事故形态场景。关注探究最近发生的自动驾驶车辆事故案例。未来新的影响因素比如多种自动驾驶车辆与有人驾驶车辆共存、人机驾驶行为切换、智能交通系统的信息安全性问题等,都可能引发事故。其中,人的因素和环境影响依然重要;弱势道路使用者是自动驾驶车辆的重点避撞对象。对相关的法规制定、事故预防和处理的应对措施提出了建议。
Based on the theory of human-machine-environment system engineering, this paper investigated the developing trends of autonomous vehicles and the types of traffic crashes in China, and integrated changing human-vehicle-road factors of traffic system to speculate the possible new types and scenarios of traffic crashes. The recent occurred crash cases involving autonomous vehicles were concerned and investigated. In future, some new affecting factors such as the mix traffic with various autonomous vehicles and piloted vehicles, the switching of driving behavior between human and machine,and the information security of intelligent traffic system, may cause traffic crashes. Among these, the human factors and the influence of environment are still significant. Vulnerable road users are the main groups for automatic vehicles to avoid collision. The relevant laws formulating and the countermeasures for the crash prevention and processing are also suggested.
Based on the theory of human-machine-environment system engineering, this paper investigated the developing trends of autonomous vehicles and the types of traffic crashes in China, and integrated changing human-vehicle-road factors of traffic system to speculate the possible new types and scenarios of traffic crashes. The recent occurred crash cases involving autonomous vehicles were concerned and investigated. In future, some new affecting factors such as the mix traffic with various autonomous vehicles and piloted vehicles, the switching of driving behavior between human and machine,and the information security of intelligent traffic system, may cause traffic crashes. Among these, the human factors and the influence of environment are still significant. Vulnerable road users are the main groups for automatic vehicles to avoid collision. The relevant laws formulating and the countermeasures for the crash prevention and processing are also suggested.
引文
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[2]刘健皓.第一起自动驾驶死亡车祸!特斯拉事故复现分析[EB/OL].(2016-07-04)[2016-08-09].http://tech.ifeng.com/a/20160704/41633017_0.shtml.Liu Jianhao.The first fatal crash with autonomous car!Reconstruction and analysis of Tesla crash[EB/OL].(2016-07-04)[2016-08-09].http://tech.ifeng.com/a/20160704/41633017_0.shtml.
[3]Payre W,Cestac J,Delhomme P.Intention to use a fully automated car:Attitudes and a priori acceptability[J].Transportation Research Part F(S1369-8478),2014,27(PB):252-263.
[4]Hevelke A,Nida-Ru¨melin J.Responsibility for Crashes of Autonomous Vehicles:An Ethical Analysis[J].Sci Eng Ethics(S1353-3452),2015,21(3):619-630.
[5]Schroll C.Splitting the Bill:Creating a National Car Insurance Fund to Pay for Accidents in Autonomous Vehicles[M].USA:Northwestern University Law Reviewn,2015.
[6]Marchant G E,Lindor R A.The coming collision between autonomous vehicles and the liability system[J].Santa Clara Law Review(S0146-0315),2012,52(4):1321-1340.
[7]China’s Baidu to test driverless cars in the U.S.[N].THEWALL STREET JOURNAL.2016-03-16.
[8]中华人民共和国道路交通事故统计年报(2010-2014)[R].公安部交通管理局,北京,2011-2015年.Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security of PRC.Annual statistical report of China road traffic collisions(2010-2014)[R].Beijing,2011-2015.
[9]NHTSA.Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles[M]//Publication NHTSA 14-13.Washington,D.C.,USA:U.S.Department of Transportation,2013.
[10]Goodall N J.Ethical Decision Making During Automated Vehicle Crashes[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,Washington,D.C.(S0361-1981),2014,2424(1):58-65.
[11]Evans L.Causal Influence of Car Mass and Size on Driver Fatality Risk[J].American Journal of Public Health(S0148-7191),2001,91(7):1076-1081.
[12]Williams M.San Francisco has had its first self-driving car accident[EB/OL].(2016-01-21)[2016-03-16].http://www.pcworld.com/article/3024939/car-tech/sanfrancisco-has-had-its-first-autonomous-car-accident.html.
[13]Winter JCFD,Happee R,Martens MH,et al.Effects of adaptive cruise control and highly automated driving on workload and situation awareness:A review of the empirical evidence[J].Transportation Research Part F(S1369-8478),2014,27(PB):196-217.
[14]Strand N,Nilsson J,Karlsson ICM,et al.Semi-automated versus highly automated driving in critical situations caused by automation failures[J].Transportation Research Part F(S1369-8478),2014,27(PB):218-228.
[15]Merat N,Jamson A H,Lai FCH,ea al.Transition to manual:Driver behaviour when resuming control from a highly automated vehicle[J].Transportation Research Part F(S1369-8478),2014,27(PB):274-282.
[16]姜靖.无人驾驶车缘何一遇雪天就罢工[EB/OL].科技日报,(2016-02-22)[2016-03-16].http://digitalpaper.stdaily.com/http_www.kjrb.com/kjrb/html/2016-02/22/content_331893.htm?div=-1.Jiang Jing.Why driverless vehicle doesnot work in snowy days[EB/OL].Science and Technology Daily,(2016-02-22)[2016-03-16]..http://digitalpaper.stdaily.com/http_www.kjrb.com/kjrb/html/2016-02/22/content_331893.htm?div=-1.
[17]Waldrop M M.Autonomous vehicle:No Drivers Required[EB/OL].(2015-02-04)[2016-03-16].http://www.nature.com/news/autonomous-vehicles-no-drivers-required-1.16832.