基于移动通信大数据的地震灾区人口伤亡获取与评估系统设计
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摘要
针对现有评估系统存在评估准确性低、耗时长以及稳定性差的问题,提出并设计基于移动通信大数据的地震灾害人口伤亡评估系统。给出系统总体架构,结合移动通信大数据,设计震害数据采集、数据传输、人口伤亡评估以及数据统计分析等硬件模块,完成地震灾害人口伤亡数据的采集和数据统计。将第一次定位数据与经过震中烈度和当地人口密度系数修正后,得到的地震数据相比较,基于前后两次定位,若定位后数据不变,可以认定为受伤或者受困,甚至死亡,将第二次定位数据根据键-值的模式排列在表格之内,实现大数据的存储和分析,运用线性回归的原理,构建地震人员伤亡评估模型,完成地震灾害人口伤亡评估系统设计。实验结果表明,该系统评估结果较为准确,与实际评估结果拟合度较高,且该系统评估时效性较好,表明该系统具有一定可行性。
To solve the problems in the existing evaluation system, i.e., low evaluation accuracy, long time consumption, and poor stability, a seismic disaster casualty assessment system based on mobile communication big data is proposed and designed. The overall system architecture is first given; then, combined with the mobile communication big data, hardware modules, including systems for seismic damage data acquisition, data transmission, population injury assessment, and data statistical analysis, are designed. Finally, the acquisition and data statistics of the population casualties of earthquake disasters are completed. The first positioning data are compared with the seismic data after the correction of the epicenter intensity and local population density coefficient. If the positioning data remain unchanged, the casualty can be regarded as injured or trapped, or even dead. According to the key-value pattern, the second positioning data are arranged in a table to store and analyze the big data. Using the principle of linear regression, the earthquake casualty assessment model is constructed, and the earthquake disaster population casualty assessment system is designed. The experimental results show that the system evaluation result is accurate, and the fitting degree with the actual evaluation results is high, indicating that the system has a certain feasibility.
To solve the problems in the existing evaluation system, i.e., low evaluation accuracy, long time consumption, and poor stability, a seismic disaster casualty assessment system based on mobile communication big data is proposed and designed. The overall system architecture is first given; then, combined with the mobile communication big data, hardware modules, including systems for seismic damage data acquisition, data transmission, population injury assessment, and data statistical analysis, are designed. Finally, the acquisition and data statistics of the population casualties of earthquake disasters are completed. The first positioning data are compared with the seismic data after the correction of the epicenter intensity and local population density coefficient. If the positioning data remain unchanged, the casualty can be regarded as injured or trapped, or even dead. According to the key-value pattern, the second positioning data are arranged in a table to store and analyze the big data. Using the principle of linear regression, the earthquake casualty assessment model is constructed, and the earthquake disaster population casualty assessment system is designed. The experimental results show that the system evaluation result is accurate, and the fitting degree with the actual evaluation results is high, indicating that the system has a certain feasibility.
引文
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[2] 钟德燕,郭欣,王小龙,等.基于移动通信大数据的地震灾区人口快速处理系统研究[J].山西地震,2018,25(1):125-127.ZHONG Deyan,GUO Xin,WANG Xiaolong,et al.Research on Rapid Population Processing System of Earthquake Disaster Area Based on Mobile Communication Big Data[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2018,25(1):125-127.
[3] 王曦,周洪建,张弛.地震灾害死亡人口快速评估方法对比研究[J].地理科学,2018,38(2):235-238.WANG Xi,ZHOU Hongjian,ZHANG Chi.A Comparative Study on Rapid Evaluation Methods of Death Population Caused by Earthquake Disasters[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(2):235-238.
[4] 何萍,陈修吾,何霆,等.基于GIS的东莞市地震灾害评估系统的设计与实现[J].华南地震,2017,37(3):9-17.HE Ping,CHEN Xiuwu,HE Ting,et al.Designing and Implementation of Earthquake Disaster Assessment Software System for Dongguan City[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2017,37(3):9-17.
[5] 周德红,冯豪,程乐棋,等.遗传算法优化的BP神经网络在地震死亡人数评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(6):2267-2272.ZHOU Dehong,FENG Hao,CHENGLeqi,et al.Earthquake Casualty Assessment Based on the BP Neural Network of the Optimized Genetic Algorithm[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2017,17(6):2267-2272.
[6] 文彦君,杨宏伟.陕西省地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估[J].华南地震,2016,36(4):42-49.WEN Yanjun,YANG Hongwei.Macro Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Population Vulnerability in Shaanxi Province[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2016,36(4):42-49.
[7] 姚远,胡伟华,吴国栋,等.2015年7月3日新疆皮山MS6.5地震烈度与地震地质灾害特点[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):663-668.YAO Yuan,HU Weihua,WU Guodong,et al.Geological Hazard Characteristics and Seismic Intensity of July 3,2015,Pishan,Xinjiang,MS6.5 Earthquake[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(4):663-668.
[8] 朱林,姜立新,杨天青.BP神经网络模型在地震应急人员伤亡评估中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(6):33-41.ZHU Lin,JIANG Lixin,YANG Tianqing.Application of BP Neural Network Model to Earthquake Emergency Casualty Assessment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(6):33-41.
[9] 吴新燕,余世舟.玉溪盆地地震死亡人数快速评估方法研究[J].国际地震动态,2015(9):188-188.WU Xinyan,YU Shizhou.Study on Rapid Evaluation Method of Earthquake Death in Yuxi Basin[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2015(9):188-188.
[10] 和朝霞,韶丹,孙哲,等.基于行政村居民地的地震人员死亡评估方法研究——以陕西礼泉县为例[J].灾害学,2016,31(2):84-88.[HT][CDH00746][HT5K] HE Zhaoxia,SHAO Dan,SUN Zhe,et al.Evaluation Method of Earthquake Death of Administrative Village Residents——A Case Study on Liquan County[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(2):84-88.
[11] 唐丽华,李山有,宋立军.地震灾害风险评估方法的对比分析——以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(5):838-845.TANG Lihua,LI Shanyou,SONG Lijun.Comparative Analysis of Earthquake Risk Assessment Methods:A Case Study on Urumqi City[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(5):838-845.
[12] 熊金红,陈岑,孙萌,等.基于地震反射特征的梨树断陷白垩纪沉积研究[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(16):27-34.XIONG Jinhong,CHEN Cen,SUN Meng,et al.Research of Cretaceous Sedimentary Based on Seismic Reflection Characteristics in Lishu Rift[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2016,16(16):27-34.
[13] 吴昊昱,吴新燕,李宏伟.基于神经网络的地震死亡人数快速评估研究[J].科技通报,2017,33(4):241-244.WU Haoyu,WU Xinyan,LI Hongwei.Research on Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Death Toll Based on Neural Network[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,2017,33(4):241-244.
[14] 王晓东,吴雅琴.基于模糊综合评判的网络受损状态评估的设计与实现[J].现代电子技术,2016,39(23):83-85.WANG Xiaodong,WU Yaqin.Design and Implementation of Network Damage State Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgment[J].Modern Electronics Technique,2016,39(23):83-85.