基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的龙海市土地利用/覆被变化与模拟
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摘要
以2002、2008、2014年龙海市土地利用/覆被类型数据和Logistic回归模型生成的各土地利用类型空间分布概率适宜性图集为基础,借助IDRISI软件平台,运用CA-Markov模块对龙海市土地利用变化进行模拟预测.结果表明:在粗放发展情景下,龙海市的耕地将被大量侵占,生态用地得不到有效保护,人地矛盾关系愈演愈烈;在城市规划与区域发展情景下,龙海市未来各用地类型结构的发展将趋于稳定,表明土地利用政策法规的约束实施在一定程度上有利于促进土地的可持续发展.
To predict land use changes in Longhai City,land use data in 2002,2008 and 2014 were firstly converted by IDRISI software,and spatial distribution probability of various land types was generated from Logistic-CA-Markov model.The results showed that in the scenario of extensive development area of arable land dropped mostly among all land use types,which was followed by forest land and garden.While area of construction land expanded sharply.When it comes to urban planning and regional development scenario,conversions of land use types with ecological functions to construction land was alleviated,so that arable land was protected to certain extent.Therefore,policy guidance and implementation of land use constraints are conducive to sustainable development of land.
To predict land use changes in Longhai City,land use data in 2002,2008 and 2014 were firstly converted by IDRISI software,and spatial distribution probability of various land types was generated from Logistic-CA-Markov model.The results showed that in the scenario of extensive development area of arable land dropped mostly among all land use types,which was followed by forest land and garden.While area of construction land expanded sharply.When it comes to urban planning and regional development scenario,conversions of land use types with ecological functions to construction land was alleviated,so that arable land was protected to certain extent.Therefore,policy guidance and implementation of land use constraints are conducive to sustainable development of land.
引文
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[12]龙海市统计局.龙海市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版局,2005.
[13]左彤,何玲,张俊梅.基于CA-Markov模型的滨海土壤盐渍化动态变化研究——以黄骅市为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(6):1 298-1 305.
[14]韩文霆,郭聪聪,张立元,等.基于无人机遥感的灌区土地利用与覆被分类方法[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(11):270-277.
[2]郑燕凤.基于GIS的CA-MARKOV模型的土地利用变化研究[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2009.
[3]史洪超.土地利用覆被变化(LUCC)研究进展综述[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(26):13 107-13 110,13 125.
[4]SCHIRPKE U,LEITINGER G,TAPPEINER U et al.SPA-LUCC:Developing land-use/cover scenarios in mountain landscapes[J].Ecological Informatics,2012,12(11):68-76.
[5]史晓亮,李颖,杨志勇.基于SWAT模型的诺敏河流域径流对土地利用/覆被变化的响应模拟研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):65-69.
[6]ANPUTHES M,JANMAAT J A,NICOL C F,et al.Modeling spatial association in pattern based land use simulation models[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2016,181:465-476.
[7]杨俊,张永恒,葛全胜,等.基于GA-MACE算法的不规则邻域CA土地利用模拟[J].地理研究,2016,35(7):1 288-1 300.
[8]王美霞,任志远,王永明.千河流域土地利用空间格局模拟及其影响因素分析[J].测绘科学,2013,38(4):34-36,151.
[9]FANG S,GERTNER G Z,ANDERSON A B.Prediction of multiracial probability of land use change using a bisection decomposition and logistic regression[J].Landscape Ecology,2007,22(22):419-430.
[10]ARSANJANI J J,HELBICH M,KAINZ W,et al.Integration of logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automate models to simulate urban expansion[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo-information,2013,21(1):265-275.
[11]DESSEL W V,ROMPEAY A V,SZILASSI P.Sensitivity analysis of logistic regression parameterization for land use and land cover probability estimation[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2011,25(3):489-508.
[12]龙海市统计局.龙海市统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版局,2005.
[13]左彤,何玲,张俊梅.基于CA-Markov模型的滨海土壤盐渍化动态变化研究——以黄骅市为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(6):1 298-1 305.
[14]韩文霆,郭聪聪,张立元,等.基于无人机遥感的灌区土地利用与覆被分类方法[J].农业机械学报,2016,47(11):270-277.