水电站分期发电调度规则提取方法
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摘要
针对水电站发电优化调度需求,提出了结合灰色关联度(GRA)和贝叶斯模型平均法(BMA)提取水电站水库分期发电调度规则方法。在确定性优化调度模型基础上,首先确定决策变量和影响因子属性集,基于GRA筛选分期影响因子;然后分别采用多元线性回归模型、支持向量机模型及BP神经网络模型拟合得到分期水电站水库发电调度规则;最后应用BMA进行多模型结果加权平均获取最终分期水电站水库发电调度规则。以新安江水电站为例,对本文的方法进行了验证。研究结果表明,基于GRA和BMA结合的调度规则提取方法不仅可以提供精度较高的均值模拟,而且能较好地保持确定性优化调度的发电效益。
Applying the grey relational analysis(GRA) and Bayesian model averaging(BMA) method, this paper develops a new method for dispatching the power production of a hydropower station. We first determine decision variables and impact factor sets using GRA and the results of a deterministic optimal dispatch model, and then obtain rules for staged hydropower production dispatching using a multivariate linear regression model, a support vector machine, and a back propagation neural networks. Finally, the rules for monthly power dispatching are derived using BMA to take weighted average of the models' results. Application in a case study of the Xinanjiang hydropower station shows that our method is more accurate and can achieve an efficiency of hydropower production comparable to that of deterministic optimal dispatch.
Applying the grey relational analysis(GRA) and Bayesian model averaging(BMA) method, this paper develops a new method for dispatching the power production of a hydropower station. We first determine decision variables and impact factor sets using GRA and the results of a deterministic optimal dispatch model, and then obtain rules for staged hydropower production dispatching using a multivariate linear regression model, a support vector machine, and a back propagation neural networks. Finally, the rules for monthly power dispatching are derived using BMA to take weighted average of the models' results. Application in a case study of the Xinanjiang hydropower station shows that our method is more accurate and can achieve an efficiency of hydropower production comparable to that of deterministic optimal dispatch.
引文
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[16]周磊,方国华,王丽艳,等.基于ELQG算法的水库群优化调度研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):163-167.ZHOU Lei,FANG Guohua,WANG Liyan,et al.Research on optimal operation of reservoir group based on extended liner quadrastic gaussian algorithm[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(1):163-167.(in Chinese)
[17]纪昌明,苏学灵,周婷,等.梯级水电站群调度函数的模型与评价[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(3):33-37.JI Changming,SU Xueling,ZHOU Ting,et al.Model establishment and evaluation of operation function for cascade reservoirs[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(3):33-37.(in Chinese)
[18]王蕊,董祥旻,何卫苹.一种多元非线性回归模型的建立方法及其应用[J].中国考试,2010(11):17-22.WANG Rui,DONG Xiangmin,HE Weiping.A kind of mutiple nonliner regression model and its application[J].China Examinations,2010(11):17-22.(in Chinese)
[19]李康顺,李凯,张文生.一种基于改进BP神经网络的PCA人脸识别算法[J].计算机应用与软件,2014(1):158-161.LI Kangshun,LI Kai,ZHANG Wensheng.PCA face recognition algorithm based on improved BP neural network[J].Computer Applications and Software,2014(1):158-161.(in Chinese)
[20]杜新忠,李叙勇,王慧亮,等.基于贝叶斯模型平均的径流模拟及不确定性分析[J].水文,2014,34(3):6-10.DU Xinzhong,LI Xuyong,WANG Huiliang,et al.Multimodel ensemble runoff simulation based on Bayesian model averaging method and model structure uncertainty analysis[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(3):6-10.(in Chinese)
[2]郭旭宁,秦韬,雷晓辉,等.水库群联合调度规则提取方法研究进展[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(1):19-27.GUO Xuning,QIN Tao,LEI Xiaohui,et al.Advances in derivation method for multi-reservoir joint operation policy[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(1):19-27.(in Chinese)
[3]纪昌明,喻杉,周婷,等.蚁群算法在水电站调度函数优化中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(20):103-107.JI Changming,YU Shan,ZHOU Ting,et al.Application of ant colony algorithm for hydropower dispaching function optimization[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(20):103-107.(in Chinese)
[4]周婷,纪昌明,朱艳霞,等.基于支持向量机的梯级水电站群中长期调度计划制定及评价[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(2):56-60.ZHOU Ting,JI Changming,ZHU Yanxia,et al.Eatablishment and evaluation of medium-long term operating plans for cascade hydropower stations based on support vector machine[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(2):56-60.(in Chinese)
[5]李基栋,黄炜斌,马光文,等.雅砻江下游梯级水库隐随机联合优化调度函数研究[J].水电能源科学,2014(12):49-53.LI Jidong,HUANG Weibin,MA Guangwen,et al.Research on ISO dispatching function of cascade hydropower plants of cascade hydropower plants on lower reaches of Yalongjiang River[J].Water Resources and Power,2014(12):49-53.(in Chinese)
[6]SHARMA A.Seasonal to interannual rainfall probabilistic forecasts for improved water supply management:Part 1.A strategy for system predictor identification[J].Journal of Hydrology,2000,239(1/2/3/4):232-239.
[7]WANG W C,CHAU K W,CHENG C T,et al.Acomparison of performance of several artificial intelligence methods for forecasting monthly discharge time series[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,374(3/4):294-306.
[8]MOGHADDAMNIA A,GOUSHEH M G,PIRI J,et al.Evaporation estimation using artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system techniques[J].Advances in Water Resources,2009,32(1):88-97.
[9]纪昌明,李继伟,张新明,等.基于粗糙集和支持向量机的水电站发电调度规则研究[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(1):43-49.JI Changming,LI Jiwei,ZHANG Xinming,et al.Study on hydropower station operation rules based on rough sets and support vector machine[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(1):43-49.(in Chinese)
[10]杨光,郭生练,陈柯兵,等.基于决策因子选择的梯级水库多目标优化调度规则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(8):914-923.YANG Guang,GUO Shenglian,CHEN Kebing,et al.Multi-objective cascade reservoir optimal operation rules based on decision factor selection[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(8):914-923.(in Chinese)
[11]孙芳芳.浅议灰色关联度分析方法及其应用[J].科技信息,2010,2(17):886-888.SUN Fangfang.A brief discussion on grey relational analysis method and its application[J].Science&Technology Information,2010,2(17):886-888.(in Chinese)
[12]梁忠民,戴荣,王军,等.基于贝叶斯模型平均理论的水文模型合成预报研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(2):114-118.LIANG Zhongmin,DAI Rong,WANG Jun,et al.Study on forecast combination of different hydrological models by Bayesian model averaging[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2010,29(2):114-118.(in Chinese)
[13]W?HLING T,VRUGT J A.Combining multiobjective optimization and Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models[J].Water Resources Research,2008,44(12):181-198.
[14]ZHANG J,LIU P,WANG H,et al.A Bayesian model averaging method for the derivation of reservoir operating rules[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,528:276-285.
[15]王亮.贝叶斯模型平均方法研究综述与展望[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016(3):19-23.WANG Liang.Overview and prospect of Bayesian model averaging method[J].Technoeconomics&Management Research,2016(3):19-23.(in Chinese)
[16]周磊,方国华,王丽艳,等.基于ELQG算法的水库群优化调度研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):163-167.ZHOU Lei,FANG Guohua,WANG Liyan,et al.Research on optimal operation of reservoir group based on extended liner quadrastic gaussian algorithm[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(1):163-167.(in Chinese)
[17]纪昌明,苏学灵,周婷,等.梯级水电站群调度函数的模型与评价[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(3):33-37.JI Changming,SU Xueling,ZHOU Ting,et al.Model establishment and evaluation of operation function for cascade reservoirs[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(3):33-37.(in Chinese)
[18]王蕊,董祥旻,何卫苹.一种多元非线性回归模型的建立方法及其应用[J].中国考试,2010(11):17-22.WANG Rui,DONG Xiangmin,HE Weiping.A kind of mutiple nonliner regression model and its application[J].China Examinations,2010(11):17-22.(in Chinese)
[19]李康顺,李凯,张文生.一种基于改进BP神经网络的PCA人脸识别算法[J].计算机应用与软件,2014(1):158-161.LI Kangshun,LI Kai,ZHANG Wensheng.PCA face recognition algorithm based on improved BP neural network[J].Computer Applications and Software,2014(1):158-161.(in Chinese)
[20]杜新忠,李叙勇,王慧亮,等.基于贝叶斯模型平均的径流模拟及不确定性分析[J].水文,2014,34(3):6-10.DU Xinzhong,LI Xuyong,WANG Huiliang,et al.Multimodel ensemble runoff simulation based on Bayesian model averaging method and model structure uncertainty analysis[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(3):6-10.(in Chinese)