Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley
|
摘要
Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.
Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.
Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.
引文
Chen X Y,Zou X K,Zhang Q.2017.Grades of rainstorm disaster(in Chinese).National Standard of the People’s of China,GB/T33680-2017
Chen Y,Zhai P M.2016.Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley.Clim Dyn,47:989-1006
Deng W T,Sun Z B,Zeng G,Ni D H.2009.Interdecadal variation of summer precipitation pattern over eastern China and its relationship with the North Pacific(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,33:835-846
Ding Y H,Wang S W,Zheng J Y,Wang H J,Yang X Q.2013.Climate of China(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press.557
Du Y,Li T,Xie Z Q,Zhu Z W.2016.Interannual variability of the Asian subtropical westerly jet in boreal summer and associated with circulation and SST anomalies.Clim Dyn,46:2673-2688
Du Y,Bao Q,Xie Z Q.2017.FGOALS model simulation of variation of East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet during Meiyu period(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,41:603-617
Duan W L,He B,Nover D,Fan J L,Yang G S,Chen W,Meng H F,Liu CM.2016.Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century.Nat Hazards,82:401-413
Fu S M,Yu F,Wang D H,Xia R D.2013.A comparison of two kinds of eastward-moving mesoscale vortices during the mei-yu period of 2010.Sci China Earth Sci,56:282-300
Han L F,Xu Y P,Lei C G,Yang L,Deng X J,Hu C S,Xu G.2016.Degrading river network due to urbanization in Yangtze River Delta.JGeogr Sci,26:694-706
Han L F,Xu Y P,Yang L,Deng X J.2015.Changing structure of precipitation evolution during 1957-2013 in Yangtze River Delta,China.Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess,29:2201-2212
Hu C S,Xu Y P,Han L F,Yang L,Xu G L.2016.Long-term trends in daily precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta region during 1960-2012,Eastern China.Theor Appl Climatol,125:131-147
Hu Y M,Ding Y H.2009.Possible reasons for northward shift of Meiyu belt in Yangtze-Huaihe River region during 2000-2005(in Chinese).Meteorol Mon,35:37-43
Huang D Q,Zhu J,Kuang X Y.2011.Decadal variation of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation and the possible cause.Chin Sci Bull,56:424-431
Li J,Yu R C,Sun W.2013.Duration and seasonality of hourly extreme rainfall in the central eastern China.Acta Meteorol Sin,27:799-807
Li M G,Guan Z Y,Mei S L.2016.Interannual and interdecadal variations of summer rainfall duration over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in association with anomalous circulation and Rossby wave activities(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,40:1199-1214
Li S L,Wang Y M,Gao Y Q.2009.A review of the researches on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its climate influence(in Chinese).Trans Atmos Sci,32:458-465
Li X,Yu L,Sohl T,Clinton N,Li W,Zhu Z,Liu X,Gong P.2016.Acellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets(2010-2100).Chin Sci Bull,61:1651-1661
Liang P,Ding Y H.2017.The long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation and its link to urbanization effects in Shanghai during 1916-2014.Adv Atmos Sci,34:321-334
Liu J H,Wang H,Gao X R,Chen S L,Wang J H,Shao W W.2014.Review on urban hydrology.Chin Sci Bull,59:3581-3590
Liu J Y,Tan Z M,Zhang Y.2012.Study of the three types of torrential rains of different formation mechanism during the Meiyu period(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sin,70:452-466
Liu R,Liu S C,Cicerone R J,Shiu C J,Li J,Wang J,Zhang Y.2015.Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes.Adv Atmos Sci,32:1027-1037
Ma X Y,Zhang Y C.2015.Numerical study of the impacts of urban expansion on Meiyu precipitation over Eastern China.J Meteorol Res,29:237-256
Min S,Qian Y F.2008.Regional and persistence of extreme precipitation events in China(in Chinese).Adv Water Sci,19:763-771
Qin D H,Zhang J Y,Shan C C,Song L C.2015.China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters.Beijing:Science Press.136
Sha R,Zeng H.1994.Morphological analysis of flood in the Qinhuai River basin(in Chinese).J Nanjing Norm Univ,17:47-53
Shou S W.2010.Theory and application of potential vorticity(in Chinese).Meteorol Mon,36:9-18
Si D,Ding Y H,Liu Y J.2009.Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause.Chin Sci Bull,54:4742-4748
Sun H M,Wang G J,Li X C,Chen J,Su B D,Jiang T.2017.Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China.Adv Atmos Sci,34:209-225
Tamarin T,Kaspi Y.2016.The poleward motion of extratropical cyclones from a potential vorticity tendency analysis.J Atmos Sci,73:1687-1707
Wan J H,Zhang B W,Liu J G,Deng J,Li Y P.2016.The distribution of flood disaster loss during 1950-2013(in Chinese).J Catastrophol,31:63-68
Wang L,Gu W.2016.The Eastern China flood of June 2015 and its causes.Chin Sci Bull,61:178-184
Xie Z Q,Du Y,Yang S.2015.Zonal extension and retraction of the subtropical westerly jet stream and evolution of precipitation over East Asia and the Western Pacific.J Clim,28:6783-6798
Yang M G,Chen X,Cheng C S Q.2016.Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin,China.Springer Plus,5:1731
Yao X P,Wu G X,Zhao B K,Yu Y B,Yang G M.2007.Research on the dry intrusion accompanying the low vortex precipitation.Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci,50:1396-1408
Yu R C,Li J.2016.Regional characteristics of diurnal peak phases of precipitation over contiguous China(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sin,74:18-30
Yue J,Zhang X M.2003.A discussion on the classification of land use in China(in Chinese).Arid Land Geography,26:78-88
Zhai P M,Li L,Zhou B Q,Chen Y.2016.Progress on mechanism and prediction methods for persistent extreme precipitation in the YangtzeHuaihe River valley(in Chinese).J Appl Meteorol Sci,27:631-640
Zhang H,Zhai P M.2011.Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation over eastern China in the warm season.Adv Atmos Sci,28:1177-1183
Zhang Q,Zhang J Q,Yan D H,Wang Y F.2014.Extreme precipitation events identified using detrended fluctuation analysis(DFA)in Anhui,China.Theor Appl Climatol,117:169-174
Zhang S X,Feng G L,Zhao J H.2013.Cumulative effect of torrential rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(in Chinese).Acta Phys Sin,62:069201
Zhao B K,Wu G X,Yao X P.2008.A diagnostic analysis of potential vorticity associated with development of a strong cyclone during the Meiyu period of 2003(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,32:1241-1255
Zheng J Y,Sun D,Liu K B,Hao Z X,Zhang X Z,Ge Q S.2016.Variations of extreme Meiyu events and flood disasters over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the past 300 Years(in Chinese).J Nat Res,31:1971-1983
Zheng Y G,Xue M,Li B,Chen J,Tao Z Y.2016.Spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall over China with hourly through 24-hour accumulation periods based on national-level hourly rain gauge data.Adv Atmos Sci,33:1218-1232
Zheng Y J,Wu G X,Liu Y M.2013.Dynamical and thermal problems in vortex development and movement.Part I:A PV-Q view(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sinica,27:1-14
Zhou B,Liang P,Wand D Q,Zhou Y H,Xu M,Xiang Y,Qin M R.2017.Meiyu monitoring indices(in Chinese).National Standard of the People’s of China,GB/T33671-2017
Zhu J,Huang D Q,Yang T.2016.Changes of Meiyu system in the future under A1B scenario simulated by MIROC_Hires model.Theor Appl Climatol,123:461-471
Zhu J,Huang D Q,Zhang Y C,Huang A N,Kuang X Y,Huang Y.2013.Decadal changes of Meiyu rainfall around 1991 and its relationship with two types of ENSO.J Geophys Res-Atmos,118:9766-9777
Chen Y,Zhai P M.2016.Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley.Clim Dyn,47:989-1006
Deng W T,Sun Z B,Zeng G,Ni D H.2009.Interdecadal variation of summer precipitation pattern over eastern China and its relationship with the North Pacific(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,33:835-846
Ding Y H,Wang S W,Zheng J Y,Wang H J,Yang X Q.2013.Climate of China(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press.557
Du Y,Li T,Xie Z Q,Zhu Z W.2016.Interannual variability of the Asian subtropical westerly jet in boreal summer and associated with circulation and SST anomalies.Clim Dyn,46:2673-2688
Du Y,Bao Q,Xie Z Q.2017.FGOALS model simulation of variation of East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet during Meiyu period(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,41:603-617
Duan W L,He B,Nover D,Fan J L,Yang G S,Chen W,Meng H F,Liu CM.2016.Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century.Nat Hazards,82:401-413
Fu S M,Yu F,Wang D H,Xia R D.2013.A comparison of two kinds of eastward-moving mesoscale vortices during the mei-yu period of 2010.Sci China Earth Sci,56:282-300
Han L F,Xu Y P,Lei C G,Yang L,Deng X J,Hu C S,Xu G.2016.Degrading river network due to urbanization in Yangtze River Delta.JGeogr Sci,26:694-706
Han L F,Xu Y P,Yang L,Deng X J.2015.Changing structure of precipitation evolution during 1957-2013 in Yangtze River Delta,China.Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess,29:2201-2212
Hu C S,Xu Y P,Han L F,Yang L,Xu G L.2016.Long-term trends in daily precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta region during 1960-2012,Eastern China.Theor Appl Climatol,125:131-147
Hu Y M,Ding Y H.2009.Possible reasons for northward shift of Meiyu belt in Yangtze-Huaihe River region during 2000-2005(in Chinese).Meteorol Mon,35:37-43
Huang D Q,Zhu J,Kuang X Y.2011.Decadal variation of different durations of continuous Meiyu precipitation and the possible cause.Chin Sci Bull,56:424-431
Li J,Yu R C,Sun W.2013.Duration and seasonality of hourly extreme rainfall in the central eastern China.Acta Meteorol Sin,27:799-807
Li M G,Guan Z Y,Mei S L.2016.Interannual and interdecadal variations of summer rainfall duration over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in association with anomalous circulation and Rossby wave activities(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,40:1199-1214
Li S L,Wang Y M,Gao Y Q.2009.A review of the researches on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its climate influence(in Chinese).Trans Atmos Sci,32:458-465
Li X,Yu L,Sohl T,Clinton N,Li W,Zhu Z,Liu X,Gong P.2016.Acellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets(2010-2100).Chin Sci Bull,61:1651-1661
Liang P,Ding Y H.2017.The long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation and its link to urbanization effects in Shanghai during 1916-2014.Adv Atmos Sci,34:321-334
Liu J H,Wang H,Gao X R,Chen S L,Wang J H,Shao W W.2014.Review on urban hydrology.Chin Sci Bull,59:3581-3590
Liu J Y,Tan Z M,Zhang Y.2012.Study of the three types of torrential rains of different formation mechanism during the Meiyu period(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sin,70:452-466
Liu R,Liu S C,Cicerone R J,Shiu C J,Li J,Wang J,Zhang Y.2015.Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes.Adv Atmos Sci,32:1027-1037
Ma X Y,Zhang Y C.2015.Numerical study of the impacts of urban expansion on Meiyu precipitation over Eastern China.J Meteorol Res,29:237-256
Min S,Qian Y F.2008.Regional and persistence of extreme precipitation events in China(in Chinese).Adv Water Sci,19:763-771
Qin D H,Zhang J Y,Shan C C,Song L C.2015.China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters.Beijing:Science Press.136
Sha R,Zeng H.1994.Morphological analysis of flood in the Qinhuai River basin(in Chinese).J Nanjing Norm Univ,17:47-53
Shou S W.2010.Theory and application of potential vorticity(in Chinese).Meteorol Mon,36:9-18
Si D,Ding Y H,Liu Y J.2009.Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause.Chin Sci Bull,54:4742-4748
Sun H M,Wang G J,Li X C,Chen J,Su B D,Jiang T.2017.Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China.Adv Atmos Sci,34:209-225
Tamarin T,Kaspi Y.2016.The poleward motion of extratropical cyclones from a potential vorticity tendency analysis.J Atmos Sci,73:1687-1707
Wan J H,Zhang B W,Liu J G,Deng J,Li Y P.2016.The distribution of flood disaster loss during 1950-2013(in Chinese).J Catastrophol,31:63-68
Wang L,Gu W.2016.The Eastern China flood of June 2015 and its causes.Chin Sci Bull,61:178-184
Xie Z Q,Du Y,Yang S.2015.Zonal extension and retraction of the subtropical westerly jet stream and evolution of precipitation over East Asia and the Western Pacific.J Clim,28:6783-6798
Yang M G,Chen X,Cheng C S Q.2016.Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin,China.Springer Plus,5:1731
Yao X P,Wu G X,Zhao B K,Yu Y B,Yang G M.2007.Research on the dry intrusion accompanying the low vortex precipitation.Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci,50:1396-1408
Yu R C,Li J.2016.Regional characteristics of diurnal peak phases of precipitation over contiguous China(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sin,74:18-30
Yue J,Zhang X M.2003.A discussion on the classification of land use in China(in Chinese).Arid Land Geography,26:78-88
Zhai P M,Li L,Zhou B Q,Chen Y.2016.Progress on mechanism and prediction methods for persistent extreme precipitation in the YangtzeHuaihe River valley(in Chinese).J Appl Meteorol Sci,27:631-640
Zhang H,Zhai P M.2011.Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation over eastern China in the warm season.Adv Atmos Sci,28:1177-1183
Zhang Q,Zhang J Q,Yan D H,Wang Y F.2014.Extreme precipitation events identified using detrended fluctuation analysis(DFA)in Anhui,China.Theor Appl Climatol,117:169-174
Zhang S X,Feng G L,Zhao J H.2013.Cumulative effect of torrential rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(in Chinese).Acta Phys Sin,62:069201
Zhao B K,Wu G X,Yao X P.2008.A diagnostic analysis of potential vorticity associated with development of a strong cyclone during the Meiyu period of 2003(in Chinese).Chin J Atmos Sci,32:1241-1255
Zheng J Y,Sun D,Liu K B,Hao Z X,Zhang X Z,Ge Q S.2016.Variations of extreme Meiyu events and flood disasters over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the past 300 Years(in Chinese).J Nat Res,31:1971-1983
Zheng Y G,Xue M,Li B,Chen J,Tao Z Y.2016.Spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall over China with hourly through 24-hour accumulation periods based on national-level hourly rain gauge data.Adv Atmos Sci,33:1218-1232
Zheng Y J,Wu G X,Liu Y M.2013.Dynamical and thermal problems in vortex development and movement.Part I:A PV-Q view(in Chinese).Acta Meteorol Sinica,27:1-14
Zhou B,Liang P,Wand D Q,Zhou Y H,Xu M,Xiang Y,Qin M R.2017.Meiyu monitoring indices(in Chinese).National Standard of the People’s of China,GB/T33671-2017
Zhu J,Huang D Q,Yang T.2016.Changes of Meiyu system in the future under A1B scenario simulated by MIROC_Hires model.Theor Appl Climatol,123:461-471
Zhu J,Huang D Q,Zhang Y C,Huang A N,Kuang X Y,Huang Y.2013.Decadal changes of Meiyu rainfall around 1991 and its relationship with two types of ENSO.J Geophys Res-Atmos,118:9766-9777