The Difficult Path from Perception to Precautionary Action—Participatory Modeling as a Practical Tool to Overcome the Risk Perception Paradox in Flood Preparedness
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摘要
The risk perception paradox illustrates the perception of natural hazards as not directly related to a willingness to act or engage in precautionary behavior. Yet the utilization of participatory processes can help to overcome this gap. In a practical example in the watershed of the Danube River and its contributing streams in Germany,we aimed to solve questions about the value of participatory modeling as a method to bridge the gap linked to flood polder planning and a relocation of a dike for protection against high floods(centennial floods and rarer). Local communities, citizen initiatives, and nongovernmental environmental organizations joined together for round table discussions initiated by the water management authorities. A participatory modeling process enabled these diverse stakeholders to engage with the experts who built the groundwater models for the planning process. As part of this study, two case studies are presented. In the first example, neutral mediators assisted the round table ‘‘Flood Polder Katzau(Danube)'' in order to cultivate mutual trust and understanding between the authorities and the former opponents of the project. This process is still ongoing,challenged by long-term planning and the more immediate obstacle of current political changes. The second case studyis located on the river Alz, a tributary of the river Inn,which flows into the Danube, where the relocation of a dike was planned. This article demonstrates how participatory modeling contributes to bridging the gap between a local resident's risk perception and real action in the case of flood preparedness.
The risk perception paradox illustrates the perception of natural hazards as not directly related to a willingness to act or engage in precautionary behavior. Yet the utilization of participatory processes can help to overcome this gap. In a practical example in the watershed of the Danube River and its contributing streams in Germany,we aimed to solve questions about the value of participatory modeling as a method to bridge the gap linked to flood polder planning and a relocation of a dike for protection against high floods(centennial floods and rarer). Local communities, citizen initiatives, and nongovernmental environmental organizations joined together for round table discussions initiated by the water management authorities. A participatory modeling process enabled these diverse stakeholders to engage with the experts who built the groundwater models for the planning process. As part of this study, two case studies are presented. In the first example, neutral mediators assisted the round table ‘‘Flood Polder Katzau(Danube)'' in order to cultivate mutual trust and understanding between the authorities and the former opponents of the project. This process is still ongoing,challenged by long-term planning and the more immediate obstacle of current political changes. The second case studyis located on the river Alz, a tributary of the river Inn,which flows into the Danube, where the relocation of a dike was planned. This article demonstrates how participatory modeling contributes to bridging the gap between a local resident's risk perception and real action in the case of flood preparedness.
The risk perception paradox illustrates the perception of natural hazards as not directly related to a willingness to act or engage in precautionary behavior. Yet the utilization of participatory processes can help to overcome this gap. In a practical example in the watershed of the Danube River and its contributing streams in Germany,we aimed to solve questions about the value of participatory modeling as a method to bridge the gap linked to flood polder planning and a relocation of a dike for protection against high floods(centennial floods and rarer). Local communities, citizen initiatives, and nongovernmental environmental organizations joined together for round table discussions initiated by the water management authorities. A participatory modeling process enabled these diverse stakeholders to engage with the experts who built the groundwater models for the planning process. As part of this study, two case studies are presented. In the first example, neutral mediators assisted the round table ‘‘Flood Polder Katzau(Danube)'' in order to cultivate mutual trust and understanding between the authorities and the former opponents of the project. This process is still ongoing,challenged by long-term planning and the more immediate obstacle of current political changes. The second case studyis located on the river Alz, a tributary of the river Inn,which flows into the Danube, where the relocation of a dike was planned. This article demonstrates how participatory modeling contributes to bridging the gap between a local resident's risk perception and real action in the case of flood preparedness.
引文
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Diersch,H.-J.G.2014.FEFLOW finite element modeling of flow,mass and heat transport in porous and fractured media.Berlin:Springer.
Erzigkeit,I.2017.High-water dialogue on the Bavarian flood polder program(Hochwasserdialog zum bayerischen Flutpolderprogramm)(Contribution to the focus issue‘‘Quality criteria for citizen participation processes’’/Beitrag zum Schwerpunktthema‘‘Qualita¨tskriterien fu¨r Bu¨rgerbeteiligungsprozesse’’).Der Mediator 2017(1):9-12.Fernuniversita¨t in Hagen(in German).
Henly-Shepard,S.,S.A.Gray,and L.J.Cox.2015.The use of participatory modeling to promote social learning and facilitate community disaster planning.Environmental Science and Policy45:109-122.
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Keilholz,P.,M.Disse,and P.K.Bhola.2015.Integrated consideration of the problem of high groundwater in the community of Tacherting(Bavaria)(Integrierte Betrachtung der Grundhochwasser-Problematik in der Gemeinde Tacherting(Bayern)).Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft 2015(11):688-693(in German).
Kotir,J.H.,G.Brown,N.Marshall,and R.Johnstone.2017.Systemic feedback modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development:An application of participatory modelling approach in the Volta River Basin.Environmental Modelling&Software 88:106-118.
Nujic,M.2009.Hydro_AS-2D-Ein zweidimensionales Stro¨mungsmodell fu¨r die wasserwirtschaftliche Praxis,Hydro_AS-2D User Manual.https://www.hydrotec.de/software/support/downloads/hydro_as2d/.Accessed 3 Dec 2018.
Radtke,J.,L.Holstenkamp,J.Barnes,and O.Renn.2018.Concepts,formats,and methods of participation:Theory and practice.In Energy transition and participation manual(Handbuch Energiewende und Partizipation),ed.L.Holstenkamp,and J.Radtke.Wiesbaden:Springer.
Reed,M.S.2008.Stakeholder participation for environmental management:A literature review.Biological Conservation 141(10):2417-2431.
Renn,O.2008.Risk governance.Coping with uncertainty in a complex world.London:Earthscan.
Rutschmann,P.,M.Asenkerschbaumer,and D.Skublics.2012.Delay and assessment of high flood waves along the Bavarian Danube(Verzo¨gerung und Abscha¨tzung von Hochwasserwellen entlang der bayerischen Donau).Final report 2012,Chair and Research Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Economy,Technical University of Munich(Abschlussbericht 2012,Lehrstuhl und Versuchsanstalt fu¨r Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft,Technische Universita¨t Mu¨nchen)(in German).
Wachinger,G.,C.Begg,O.Renn,and C.Kuhlicke.2013.The risk perception paradox-Implications for governance and communication of natural hazards.Risk Analysis 33(6):1049-1065.
Wachinger,G.,O.Renn,S.-K.Wist,S.-M.Steinhilber,and U.Triemer.2014.Using participation to create resilience:How to involve citizens in designing a hospital system?Environment Systems and Decisions 34(2):208-223.
DHI(Danish Hydraulic Institute).2017a.MIKE 11.A modelling system for rivers and channels.Reference manual.http://manuals.mikepoweredbydhi.help/2017/Water_Resources/MIKE11_UserManual.pdf.Accessed 3 Dec 2018.
DHI(Danish Hydraulic Institute).2017b.MIKE SHE.Volume 2:Reference manual.http://manuals.mikepoweredbydhi.help/2017/Water_Resources/MIKE_SHE_Printed_V2.pdf.Accessed 3 Dec2018.
Diersch,H.-J.G.2014.FEFLOW finite element modeling of flow,mass and heat transport in porous and fractured media.Berlin:Springer.
Erzigkeit,I.2017.High-water dialogue on the Bavarian flood polder program(Hochwasserdialog zum bayerischen Flutpolderprogramm)(Contribution to the focus issue‘‘Quality criteria for citizen participation processes’’/Beitrag zum Schwerpunktthema‘‘Qualita¨tskriterien fu¨r Bu¨rgerbeteiligungsprozesse’’).Der Mediator 2017(1):9-12.Fernuniversita¨t in Hagen(in German).
Henly-Shepard,S.,S.A.Gray,and L.J.Cox.2015.The use of participatory modeling to promote social learning and facilitate community disaster planning.Environmental Science and Policy45:109-122.
ICPDR(International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River).2014.Floods in June 2013 in the Danube River basin:Brief oversight of key events and lessons learned.Vienna:ICPDR.https://www.icpdr.org/main/sites/default/files/nodes/documents/icpdr_floods-report-web_0.pdf.Accessed 12 Nov2018
Keilholz,P.,M.Disse,and P.K.Bhola.2015.Integrated consideration of the problem of high groundwater in the community of Tacherting(Bavaria)(Integrierte Betrachtung der Grundhochwasser-Problematik in der Gemeinde Tacherting(Bayern)).Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft 2015(11):688-693(in German).
Kotir,J.H.,G.Brown,N.Marshall,and R.Johnstone.2017.Systemic feedback modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development:An application of participatory modelling approach in the Volta River Basin.Environmental Modelling&Software 88:106-118.
Nujic,M.2009.Hydro_AS-2D-Ein zweidimensionales Stro¨mungsmodell fu¨r die wasserwirtschaftliche Praxis,Hydro_AS-2D User Manual.https://www.hydrotec.de/software/support/downloads/hydro_as2d/.Accessed 3 Dec 2018.
Radtke,J.,L.Holstenkamp,J.Barnes,and O.Renn.2018.Concepts,formats,and methods of participation:Theory and practice.In Energy transition and participation manual(Handbuch Energiewende und Partizipation),ed.L.Holstenkamp,and J.Radtke.Wiesbaden:Springer.
Reed,M.S.2008.Stakeholder participation for environmental management:A literature review.Biological Conservation 141(10):2417-2431.
Renn,O.2008.Risk governance.Coping with uncertainty in a complex world.London:Earthscan.
Rutschmann,P.,M.Asenkerschbaumer,and D.Skublics.2012.Delay and assessment of high flood waves along the Bavarian Danube(Verzo¨gerung und Abscha¨tzung von Hochwasserwellen entlang der bayerischen Donau).Final report 2012,Chair and Research Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Economy,Technical University of Munich(Abschlussbericht 2012,Lehrstuhl und Versuchsanstalt fu¨r Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft,Technische Universita¨t Mu¨nchen)(in German).
Wachinger,G.,C.Begg,O.Renn,and C.Kuhlicke.2013.The risk perception paradox-Implications for governance and communication of natural hazards.Risk Analysis 33(6):1049-1065.
Wachinger,G.,O.Renn,S.-K.Wist,S.-M.Steinhilber,and U.Triemer.2014.Using participation to create resilience:How to involve citizens in designing a hospital system?Environment Systems and Decisions 34(2):208-223.