黑河上游八宝河流域径流变化及其对气候变化的响应
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摘要
在气候变化的背景下,祁连山八宝河流域的气候和径流都发生了变化。从线性趋势看,1968～2012年,八宝河流域年均气温显著升高,平均每10a升温0.35℃,约为全球平均气温增速的3倍;年降水量呈微弱上升趋势,平均每10a上升1.5%;年径流量显著增加,平均每10a增加5.2%。总体上,八宝河径流主要受降水控制,分成了三个阶段。从干湿两季看,湿季显著升高的气温对径流量影响不大,但略微增加的降水却与增加的径流量显著相关;干季降水极少且为固态形式,对径流量无影响,其径流量的显著增加为气温显著升高带来的冻土深度减小、土壤含水层增加所致。
The meteorological factors and runoff in the Babaohe basin of Qilian Mountains have responded positively to the climate change. The annual mean air temperature has risen greatly with the increase of 0.35℃ per 10 a from the linear trend during 1968-2012, which is three times of the world average rate. Besides, the annual precipitation has risen slightly with the increase of 1.5% per 10 a while the annual runoff has risen significantly with the increase of 5.2% per 10 a. Generally, the annual runoff is dominated by precipitation that is categorized into 3 phases. In the wet season, the intensively increased temperature has slightly affected the runoff while the slightly increasing precipitation has significant correlation with the increasing runoff. However, very limited solid precipitation has no effect on the runoff in the dry season. The obviously increasing runoff has been dominated by the decrease of frozen ground depth and the increase of soil aquifer that caused by the intensively increase of temperature.
The meteorological factors and runoff in the Babaohe basin of Qilian Mountains have responded positively to the climate change. The annual mean air temperature has risen greatly with the increase of 0.35℃ per 10 a from the linear trend during 1968-2012, which is three times of the world average rate. Besides, the annual precipitation has risen slightly with the increase of 1.5% per 10 a while the annual runoff has risen significantly with the increase of 5.2% per 10 a. Generally, the annual runoff is dominated by precipitation that is categorized into 3 phases. In the wet season, the intensively increased temperature has slightly affected the runoff while the slightly increasing precipitation has significant correlation with the increasing runoff. However, very limited solid precipitation has no effect on the runoff in the dry season. The obviously increasing runoff has been dominated by the decrease of frozen ground depth and the increase of soil aquifer that caused by the intensively increase of temperature.
引文
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[3]戴春霞.黑河上游泥沙来源及分布、演变规律分析[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2010,46(6):3-4.(DAI Chunxia.The distribution and change of sediment from the upper part of Heihe River[J].Gansu Water Conservancy and Hydropower Technology,2010,46(6):3-4.(in Chinese))
[4]李云武.八宝河祁连站降水量演变分析[J].甘肃科技,2015,31(23):40-42.(LI Yunwu.Analysis of precipitation change of Qilian hydrological station in the Babao River basin[J].Gansu Science and Technology,2015,31(23):40-42.(in Chinese))
[5]牛最荣,安冬.60年来黑河流域东部子水系中上游气温、降水、蒸发变化特征分析[J].水文,2013,33(6):85-89.(NIU Zuirong,ANDong.Change characteristics of temperature,precipitation and evaporation in upper and middle reaches of eastern Heihe River basin in recent 60 years[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2013,33(6):85-89.(in Chinese))
[6]黑河计划数据管理中心.黑河流域边界数据集[DB/OL].中科院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,2011.(Cold and Arid Regions Sciences Data Center.Heihe River basin boundary[DB/OL].Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2011.(in Chinese))
[7]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(3):365-377.(HUAI Baojuan,LI Zhongqin,SUN Meiping,et al.RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River basin in the last 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(3):365-377.(in Chinese))
[8]何咏琪.基于遥感及GIS技术的寒区积雪水文模拟研究[D].兰州大学,2014.(HE Yongqi.Snow Hydrological Simulation in Alpine Areas Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technologies[D].Lanzhou University,2014.(in Chinese))
[9]Kendall M G.Rank correlation methods[J].British Journal of Psychology,1934,25(1):86-91.
[10]宇传华.SPSS与统计分析[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2007.(YU Chuanhua.SPSS and Statistical Analysis[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Electronics Industry,2007.(in Chinese))
[11]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].气象出版社,2007.(WEI Fengying.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Techniques[M].China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese))
[12]Morlet J,Arens G,Fourgeau E,et al.Wave propagation and sampling theory;part I,complex signal and scattering in multilayered media[J].Geophysics,1982,47(2):203.
[13]IPCC,Pachauri R K,Meyer L A,et al.Climate change 2014:synthesis report[R].IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthsis Report,2014.