来安县气候多尺度时间变化特征及其对气候生产力的影响
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摘要
文章利用来安县国家气象站1961—2015年温度和降水资料,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算气候生产力,分析来安县近55年温度和降水气候因子的时空变化特征,研究气候变化对来安气候生产力的影响,得出结论:近55年来安升温趋势显著,升温幅度0.23℃/10a,此趋势是一突变现象,具体突变点是2001年。降水量呈波动上升趋势,波动幅度大,最大波动幅度高达1 230 mm。年平均气温和降水量在年际尺度上周期振荡以准4～8a为主,年代际尺度上周期信号以准16a为主;近55年来安气候生产力上升趋势显著,上升幅度每10年20 kg·km-2,此上升趋势是一突变现象,具体突变点是1995年。气候生产力在年际尺度上周期振荡以准8a左右为主,年代际尺度上周期信号以准16a为主;气候生产力同时受气温、降水影响,气候变化对气候生产力的提高有利,但只在水分充足条件下,其提高幅度才更大,未来"暖湿型"变化趋势使来安气候生产力的上升空间在10%左右。
Using the temperature and precipitation data of the National Weather Station of Lai'an county from 1961 to2015,the Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to calculate the climate productivity,and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the temperature and precipitation climatic factors in the past 55 years were analyzed to study the climate change.The impact is:in the past 55 years,the heating trend is significant,the temperature rise is 0.23℃/10 a,this trend is a mutation phenomenon,the specific mutation point is 2001.The precipitation is fluctuating and rising,and the fluctuation range is large.The maximum fluctuation range is as high as 1 230 mm.The annual average temperature and precipitation on the interannual scale are mainly quasi 4～8 a,and the periodic signals on the interdecadal scale are mainly quasi 16 a.In the past 55 years,the increase in climate productivity is significant,with an increase of 20 kg·km-2 per 10 years,this uptrend is a mutation phenomenon,the specific mutation point is 1995.At the interannual scale,the climate productivity is dominated by quasi-8 a.On the interdecadal scale,the periodic signal is dominated by quasi 16 a;climate productivity is affected by temperature and precipitation,and climate change is beneficial to the improvement of climate productivity,but only in water.Under sufficient conditions,the increase will be even greater.In the future,the"warm and wet"trend will increase the climate productivity of Lai'an by about 10%.
Using the temperature and precipitation data of the National Weather Station of Lai'an county from 1961 to2015,the Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to calculate the climate productivity,and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the temperature and precipitation climatic factors in the past 55 years were analyzed to study the climate change.The impact is:in the past 55 years,the heating trend is significant,the temperature rise is 0.23℃/10 a,this trend is a mutation phenomenon,the specific mutation point is 2001.The precipitation is fluctuating and rising,and the fluctuation range is large.The maximum fluctuation range is as high as 1 230 mm.The annual average temperature and precipitation on the interannual scale are mainly quasi 4～8 a,and the periodic signals on the interdecadal scale are mainly quasi 16 a.In the past 55 years,the increase in climate productivity is significant,with an increase of 20 kg·km-2 per 10 years,this uptrend is a mutation phenomenon,the specific mutation point is 1995.At the interannual scale,the climate productivity is dominated by quasi-8 a.On the interdecadal scale,the periodic signal is dominated by quasi 16 a;climate productivity is affected by temperature and precipitation,and climate change is beneficial to the improvement of climate productivity,but only in water.Under sufficient conditions,the increase will be even greater.In the future,the"warm and wet"trend will increase the climate productivity of Lai'an by about 10%.
引文
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[4]黄维,邓祥征,何书金,等.中国气候变化对县域粮食产量影响的计量经济分析[J].地理科学进展,2010(6):677-683.
[5]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015(1):80-94.
[6]黄嘉佑.气候统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.
[7]秦大河,丁一汇,苏纪兰,等.中国气候与环境演变评估(Ⅰ):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2005(1):4-9.