Inter-provincial Differences in Rice Multi-cropping Changes in Main Double-cropping Rice Area in China: Evidence from Provinces and Households
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摘要
Since the early 1980 s, the multi-cropping index for rice has decreased significantly in main double-cropping rice area in China, which is the primary double-cropping rice(DCR) production area. This decline may bring challenges to food security in China because rice is the staple food for more than 60% of the Chinese population. It has been generally recognized that rapidly rising labor costs due to economic growth and urbanization in China is the key driving force of the ‘double-to-single' rice cropping system adaption. However, not all provinces have shown a dramatic decline in DCR area, and labor costs alone cannot explain this difference. To elucidate the reasons for these inter-provincial distinctions and the dynamics of rice cropping system adaption, we evaluated the influencing factors using provincial panel data from 1980 to 2015. We also used household survey data for empirical analysis to explore the mechanisms driving differences in rice multi-cropping changes. Our results indicated that the eight provinces in the study can be divided into three spatial groups based on the extent of DCR area decline, the rapidly-declining marginal, core, and stable zones. Increasing labor cost due to rapid urbanization was the key driving force of rice cropping system adaption, but the land use dynamic vary hugely among different provinces. These differences between zones were due to the interaction between labor price and accumulated temperature conditions. Therefore, increasing labor costs had the greatest impact in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hubei, where the accumulated temperature is relatively low and rice multi-cropping index declined dramaticly. However, labor costs had little impact in Guangdong and Guangxi. Differences in accumulated temperature conditions resulted in spatially different labor demands and pressure on households during the busy season. As a result, there have been different profits and rice multi-cropping changes between provinces and zones. Because of these spatial differences, regionally appropriate policies that provide appropriate subsidies for early rice in rapidly-declining marginal zone such as Zhejiang and Hubei should be implemented. In addition, agricultural mechanization and the number of agricultural workers have facilitated double-cropping; therefore, small machinery and agricultural infrastructure construction should be further supported.
Since the early 1980 s, the multi-cropping index for rice has decreased significantly in main double-cropping rice area in China, which is the primary double-cropping rice(DCR) production area. This decline may bring challenges to food security in China because rice is the staple food for more than 60% of the Chinese population. It has been generally recognized that rapidly rising labor costs due to economic growth and urbanization in China is the key driving force of the ‘double-to-single' rice cropping system adaption. However, not all provinces have shown a dramatic decline in DCR area, and labor costs alone cannot explain this difference. To elucidate the reasons for these inter-provincial distinctions and the dynamics of rice cropping system adaption, we evaluated the influencing factors using provincial panel data from 1980 to 2015. We also used household survey data for empirical analysis to explore the mechanisms driving differences in rice multi-cropping changes. Our results indicated that the eight provinces in the study can be divided into three spatial groups based on the extent of DCR area decline, the rapidly-declining marginal, core, and stable zones. Increasing labor cost due to rapid urbanization was the key driving force of rice cropping system adaption, but the land use dynamic vary hugely among different provinces. These differences between zones were due to the interaction between labor price and accumulated temperature conditions. Therefore, increasing labor costs had the greatest impact in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hubei, where the accumulated temperature is relatively low and rice multi-cropping index declined dramaticly. However, labor costs had little impact in Guangdong and Guangxi. Differences in accumulated temperature conditions resulted in spatially different labor demands and pressure on households during the busy season. As a result, there have been different profits and rice multi-cropping changes between provinces and zones. Because of these spatial differences, regionally appropriate policies that provide appropriate subsidies for early rice in rapidly-declining marginal zone such as Zhejiang and Hubei should be implemented. In addition, agricultural mechanization and the number of agricultural workers have facilitated double-cropping; therefore, small machinery and agricultural infrastructure construction should be further supported.
Since the early 1980 s, the multi-cropping index for rice has decreased significantly in main double-cropping rice area in China, which is the primary double-cropping rice(DCR) production area. This decline may bring challenges to food security in China because rice is the staple food for more than 60% of the Chinese population. It has been generally recognized that rapidly rising labor costs due to economic growth and urbanization in China is the key driving force of the ‘double-to-single' rice cropping system adaption. However, not all provinces have shown a dramatic decline in DCR area, and labor costs alone cannot explain this difference. To elucidate the reasons for these inter-provincial distinctions and the dynamics of rice cropping system adaption, we evaluated the influencing factors using provincial panel data from 1980 to 2015. We also used household survey data for empirical analysis to explore the mechanisms driving differences in rice multi-cropping changes. Our results indicated that the eight provinces in the study can be divided into three spatial groups based on the extent of DCR area decline, the rapidly-declining marginal, core, and stable zones. Increasing labor cost due to rapid urbanization was the key driving force of rice cropping system adaption, but the land use dynamic vary hugely among different provinces. These differences between zones were due to the interaction between labor price and accumulated temperature conditions. Therefore, increasing labor costs had the greatest impact in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hubei, where the accumulated temperature is relatively low and rice multi-cropping index declined dramaticly. However, labor costs had little impact in Guangdong and Guangxi. Differences in accumulated temperature conditions resulted in spatially different labor demands and pressure on households during the busy season. As a result, there have been different profits and rice multi-cropping changes between provinces and zones. Because of these spatial differences, regionally appropriate policies that provide appropriate subsidies for early rice in rapidly-declining marginal zone such as Zhejiang and Hubei should be implemented. In addition, agricultural mechanization and the number of agricultural workers have facilitated double-cropping; therefore, small machinery and agricultural infrastructure construction should be further supported.
引文
Barnwal P,Kotani K,2010.Impact of variation in climatic factors on crop yield:a case of rice crop in Andhra Pradesh,India.Japan:International University of Japan,1-46.
Cabas J,Weersink A,Olale E,2010.Crop yield response to economic,site and climatic variables.Climatic Change,101(3-4):599-616.doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9754-4
Chalise S,Naranpanawa A,2016.Climate change adaptation in agriculture:a computable general equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal.Land Use Policy,59:241-250.doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.09.007
Chen Baiming,Du Hongliang,2006.Analyzing decoupling relationship between arable land occupation and GDP growth.Resources Science,28(5):36-42.(in Chinese)
Chen Fengbo,Ma Zhixiong,Chen Peiyong,2011.Selecting status of farmers’rice cropping patterns and its impact factor analysis:four provinces survey along the Yangtze River.Agricultural Economics and Management,(3):62-73.(in Chinese)
Deng X Z,Huang J K,Rozelle S et al.,2015.Impact of urbanization on cultivated land changes in China.Land Use Policy,45:1-7.doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.007
Heerink N,Qu F T,Kuiper M et al.,2007.Policy reforms,rice production and sustainable land use in China:a macro-micro analysis.Agricultural Systems,94(3):784-800.doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2006.11.005
Huang J K,Wang Y J,Wang J X,2015.Farmers’adaptation to extreme weather events through farm management and its impacts on the mean and risk of rice yield in China.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,97(2):602-617.doi:10.1093/ajae/aav005
Huang Xinjian,Dai Shuyan,2004.Agriculture structure regulation and industrial development of Poyang Lake district.Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science),28(2):133-135,139.(in Chinese)
Jiang L G,Bergen K M,Brown D G et al.,2008.Land-cover change and vulnerability to flooding near Poyang Lake,Jiangxi Province,China.Photogrammetric Engineering&Remote Sensing,74(6):775-86.doi:10.14358/PERS.74.6.775
Kim M K,Pang A,2009.Climate change impact on rice yield and production risk.Journal of Rural Development,32(2):17-29.
Leff B,Ramankutty N,Foley J A,2004.Geographic distribution of major crops across the world.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,18(1):GB1009.doi:10.1029/2003GB002108
Liu J Q,Hull V,Batistella M et al.,2013.Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world.Ecology and Society,18(2):26.doi:10.5751/ES-05873-180226
Liu Zhaoxu,Liu Liming,Peng Qian,2012.Analysis of rice cropping decision-making in a double-cropping rice area of southern China.Resources Science,34(12):2234-2241.(in Chinese)
Luo G C,Chen F B,Wang J J,2017.Lot characteristics,household diversity,and rice cropping pattern selection:Based on the sample analysis of the middle-down Yangtze River plain.Research of Agricultural Modernization,38(3):437-444.(in Chinese)
Müller D,Munroe D K,2014.Current and future challenges in land-use science.Journal of Land Use Science,9(2):133-142.doi:10.1080/1747423X.2014.883731
National Statistical Bureau of China,2016.China Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press.(in Chinese)
Qiu B W,Qi W,Tang Z H et al.,2015.Rice cropping density and intensity lessened in southeast China during the twenty-first century.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,188(1):5.doi:10.1007/s10661-015-5004-6
Shao Liuchang,Qiao Jiajun,2016.Analysis of the coupling coordination between economic development and grain production in Henan Province.Research of Agricultural Modernization,37(2):230-237.(in Chinese)
Talhelm T,Zhang X,Oishi S et al.,2014.Large-scale psychological differences within China explained by rice versus wheat agriculture.Science,344(6184):603-608.doi:10.1126/science.1246850
Tian Q,Brown D G,Zheng L et al.,2015.The role of cross-scale social and environmental contexts in household-level land-use decisions,Poyang Lake region,China.Annals of the Association of American Geographers,105(6):1240-1259.doi:10.1080/00045608.2015.1060921
Tian Yujun,Li Xiubin,Chen Yuqi et al.,2010.A review on research advances in farm labor migration and its impacts on farm land use.Journal of Natural Resources,25(4):686-695.(in Chinese)
Verburg P H,Erb K H,Mertz O et al.,2013.Land System Science:between global challenges and local realities.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,5(5):433-437.doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.08.001
Wang X,Li X B,Xin L J et al.,2016.Ecological compensation for winter wheat abandonment in groundwater over-exploited areas in the north China plain.Journal of Geographical Sciences,26(10):1463-1476.doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1338-4
Weng Zhenlin,Wang Yapeng,2009.Analysis of influential factors on the big rice farmer’s behavior of‘Transferring Two-season Farming Rice to Sing-season One’in the main grain-growing areas:based on 619 big rice farmer households of Jiangxi Province.Ecological Economy,(4):45-47,51.(in Chinese)
Xin Liangjie,Li Xiubin,2009.Changes of multiple cropping in double cropping rice area of southern China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,24(1):58-65.(in Chinese)
Yi Fujin,Liu Ying,2016.The paradox of rice planted area changes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang:an interpretation based on elasticity of substitution.Statistics&Information Forum,31(4):87-92.(in Chinese)
Zhang Y P,Zhu D F,Xiong H et al.,2012.Development and transition of rice planting in China.Agricultural Science&Technology,13(6):1270-1276.
Zheng Xuyuan,Xu Zhigang,Ying Ruiyao,2014.Regional heterogeneity in the changes of grain production in the context of urbanization and structural adjustment in China.China Soft Science,(11):71-86.(in Chinese)
Zou Fengyu,2011.Economic Geography of Grain.Beijing:China Logistics Publishing House,18-24.(in Chinese)
(1)The DCR region in China primarily covers ten provincial-level administrative units,including Zhejiang,Anhui,Hubei,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,and Hainan.We selected the first eight(seven provinces plus the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region)for analysis because some required statistics were missing for Yunnan and Hainan and the DCR area in these provinces only accounts for~0.6%of the total DCR planting area
(1)This information can be found in the Compilation of National Agricultural Products Cost-benefit Data
(1)Here one workday is an 8-h working period for one laborer
Cabas J,Weersink A,Olale E,2010.Crop yield response to economic,site and climatic variables.Climatic Change,101(3-4):599-616.doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9754-4
Chalise S,Naranpanawa A,2016.Climate change adaptation in agriculture:a computable general equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal.Land Use Policy,59:241-250.doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.09.007
Chen Baiming,Du Hongliang,2006.Analyzing decoupling relationship between arable land occupation and GDP growth.Resources Science,28(5):36-42.(in Chinese)
Chen Fengbo,Ma Zhixiong,Chen Peiyong,2011.Selecting status of farmers’rice cropping patterns and its impact factor analysis:four provinces survey along the Yangtze River.Agricultural Economics and Management,(3):62-73.(in Chinese)
Deng X Z,Huang J K,Rozelle S et al.,2015.Impact of urbanization on cultivated land changes in China.Land Use Policy,45:1-7.doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.007
Heerink N,Qu F T,Kuiper M et al.,2007.Policy reforms,rice production and sustainable land use in China:a macro-micro analysis.Agricultural Systems,94(3):784-800.doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2006.11.005
Huang J K,Wang Y J,Wang J X,2015.Farmers’adaptation to extreme weather events through farm management and its impacts on the mean and risk of rice yield in China.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,97(2):602-617.doi:10.1093/ajae/aav005
Huang Xinjian,Dai Shuyan,2004.Agriculture structure regulation and industrial development of Poyang Lake district.Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science),28(2):133-135,139.(in Chinese)
Jiang L G,Bergen K M,Brown D G et al.,2008.Land-cover change and vulnerability to flooding near Poyang Lake,Jiangxi Province,China.Photogrammetric Engineering&Remote Sensing,74(6):775-86.doi:10.14358/PERS.74.6.775
Kim M K,Pang A,2009.Climate change impact on rice yield and production risk.Journal of Rural Development,32(2):17-29.
Leff B,Ramankutty N,Foley J A,2004.Geographic distribution of major crops across the world.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,18(1):GB1009.doi:10.1029/2003GB002108
Liu J Q,Hull V,Batistella M et al.,2013.Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world.Ecology and Society,18(2):26.doi:10.5751/ES-05873-180226
Liu Zhaoxu,Liu Liming,Peng Qian,2012.Analysis of rice cropping decision-making in a double-cropping rice area of southern China.Resources Science,34(12):2234-2241.(in Chinese)
Luo G C,Chen F B,Wang J J,2017.Lot characteristics,household diversity,and rice cropping pattern selection:Based on the sample analysis of the middle-down Yangtze River plain.Research of Agricultural Modernization,38(3):437-444.(in Chinese)
Müller D,Munroe D K,2014.Current and future challenges in land-use science.Journal of Land Use Science,9(2):133-142.doi:10.1080/1747423X.2014.883731
National Statistical Bureau of China,2016.China Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press.(in Chinese)
Qiu B W,Qi W,Tang Z H et al.,2015.Rice cropping density and intensity lessened in southeast China during the twenty-first century.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,188(1):5.doi:10.1007/s10661-015-5004-6
Shao Liuchang,Qiao Jiajun,2016.Analysis of the coupling coordination between economic development and grain production in Henan Province.Research of Agricultural Modernization,37(2):230-237.(in Chinese)
Talhelm T,Zhang X,Oishi S et al.,2014.Large-scale psychological differences within China explained by rice versus wheat agriculture.Science,344(6184):603-608.doi:10.1126/science.1246850
Tian Q,Brown D G,Zheng L et al.,2015.The role of cross-scale social and environmental contexts in household-level land-use decisions,Poyang Lake region,China.Annals of the Association of American Geographers,105(6):1240-1259.doi:10.1080/00045608.2015.1060921
Tian Yujun,Li Xiubin,Chen Yuqi et al.,2010.A review on research advances in farm labor migration and its impacts on farm land use.Journal of Natural Resources,25(4):686-695.(in Chinese)
Verburg P H,Erb K H,Mertz O et al.,2013.Land System Science:between global challenges and local realities.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,5(5):433-437.doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.08.001
Wang X,Li X B,Xin L J et al.,2016.Ecological compensation for winter wheat abandonment in groundwater over-exploited areas in the north China plain.Journal of Geographical Sciences,26(10):1463-1476.doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1338-4
Weng Zhenlin,Wang Yapeng,2009.Analysis of influential factors on the big rice farmer’s behavior of‘Transferring Two-season Farming Rice to Sing-season One’in the main grain-growing areas:based on 619 big rice farmer households of Jiangxi Province.Ecological Economy,(4):45-47,51.(in Chinese)
Xin Liangjie,Li Xiubin,2009.Changes of multiple cropping in double cropping rice area of southern China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,24(1):58-65.(in Chinese)
Yi Fujin,Liu Ying,2016.The paradox of rice planted area changes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang:an interpretation based on elasticity of substitution.Statistics&Information Forum,31(4):87-92.(in Chinese)
Zhang Y P,Zhu D F,Xiong H et al.,2012.Development and transition of rice planting in China.Agricultural Science&Technology,13(6):1270-1276.
Zheng Xuyuan,Xu Zhigang,Ying Ruiyao,2014.Regional heterogeneity in the changes of grain production in the context of urbanization and structural adjustment in China.China Soft Science,(11):71-86.(in Chinese)
Zou Fengyu,2011.Economic Geography of Grain.Beijing:China Logistics Publishing House,18-24.(in Chinese)
(1)The DCR region in China primarily covers ten provincial-level administrative units,including Zhejiang,Anhui,Hubei,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,and Hainan.We selected the first eight(seven provinces plus the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region)for analysis because some required statistics were missing for Yunnan and Hainan and the DCR area in these provinces only accounts for~0.6%of the total DCR planting area
(1)This information can be found in the Compilation of National Agricultural Products Cost-benefit Data
(1)Here one workday is an 8-h working period for one laborer