基于Morlet小波的呼伦湖流域降水多时间尺度分析
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摘要
利用Morlet小波分析方法对呼伦湖流域,海拉尔市、满洲里市、克鲁伦河水文站与乌尔逊河水文站的1961—2014年降水序列进行小波特征分析,根据降水序列多时间尺度分析结果,揭示呼伦湖流域多年降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)研究区年降水量的周期变化特征主要为,海拉尔市年平均降水存在6a,11a与27a的主周期;满洲里市存在10a,16a与27a的主周期;克鲁伦河存在7a,13a与28a的主周期;乌尔逊河存在5a,13a,20a与29a的主周期。(2)通过对各序列枯水期的计算,预测海拉尔市与满洲里市将于2017年进入枯水期,克鲁伦河与乌尔逊河将于2019年进入枯水期;(3)预测显示呼伦湖流域在2018—2026年,呼伦湖流域降水减少,进入枯水期;在2027—2035年,呼伦湖流域的降水量充沛,进入丰水期。
The Morlet wavelet method is used to analyze the precipitation data series from 1961 to 2014 at Hailaer,Manzhouli,Kelulun river gauge stations and Wuerxun River gauge station of Hulun Lake watershed.The characteristics of the annual precipitation variation of Hulun Lake watershed are determined by the multiple time scale analysis of the precipitation time series.(1)The main periodic variations of the annual precipitation of the research basin are as follows.There are 6-year,11-year and 27-year main variation periods of average annual precipitation in Hailaer city;there are 7-year,13-year and 28-year main variation periods of average annual precipitation at Kelulun river gauge station,and there are 5-year,13-year and 29-year main variation periods of average annual precipitation at Wuerxun river gauge station.(2)Based on estimation of the dry periods of each station,it is predicted that Hailaer and Manzhouli will be in the dry periods since 2017,and Kelulun river and Wuerxun river will be in the dry periods since 2019.(3)It is predicted that Hulun Lake will be in the dry period in 2018—2026,and it will be in the wet season in the period from 2027 to 2035.
The Morlet wavelet method is used to analyze the precipitation data series from 1961 to 2014 at Hailaer,Manzhouli,Kelulun river gauge stations and Wuerxun River gauge station of Hulun Lake watershed.The characteristics of the annual precipitation variation of Hulun Lake watershed are determined by the multiple time scale analysis of the precipitation time series.(1)The main periodic variations of the annual precipitation of the research basin are as follows.There are 6-year,11-year and 27-year main variation periods of average annual precipitation in Hailaer city;there are 7-year,13-year and 28-year main variation periods of average annual precipitation at Kelulun river gauge station,and there are 5-year,13-year and 29-year main variation periods of average annual precipitation at Wuerxun river gauge station.(2)Based on estimation of the dry periods of each station,it is predicted that Hailaer and Manzhouli will be in the dry periods since 2017,and Kelulun river and Wuerxun river will be in the dry periods since 2019.(3)It is predicted that Hulun Lake will be in the dry period in 2018—2026,and it will be in the wet season in the period from 2027 to 2035.
引文
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[2]Price J S,Waddington J M.Advances in Canadian wetland hydrology an biogeochemistry[J].Hydrological Processes,2000,14(9):1579-1589.
[3]徐卫红,葛德祥,李娜,等.1960-2011年洞庭湖流域降水量变化特征[J].湿地科学,2016,14(1):108-112.
[4]Hamlin L,Pietroniro A,Prowse T,et al.Application of indexed snowmelt algorithms in a northern wetland regime[J].Hydrological Processes,1998,12(10/11):1641-1657.
[5]贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省,等.近50年来河西走廊平原区气候变化的区域特征及突变分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):525-531.
[6]王传辉,周顺武,唐晓萍,等.近48年青藏高原强降水量的时空分布特征[J].地理科学,2011,31(4):470-477.
[7]Weng H,Lau K M.Wavelets,period doubling,and time-frequency localization with application to organization of convection over the tropical western Pacific[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1994,51(17):2523-2541.
[8]Babu GLS,Srivastava A,Sahana V.Analysis of stability of earthen dams in kachchh region,Gujarat,India[J].Engineering Geology,2007,94(3):123-136.
[9]Cho S E.Effects of spatial variability of soil properties on slope stability[J].Engineering Geology,2007,92(3):97-109.
[10]Souza Echer M P,Echer E,Nordemann D J,et al.Wavelet analysis of a centennial(1895-1994)southern Brazil rainfall series(Pelotas,31°46′19″S 52°20′33″W)[J].Climatic Change,2008,87(3):489-497.
[11]De Jongh I L M,Verhoest N E C,De Troch F P.Analysisof a105-year time series of precipitation observed at Uccle,Belgium[J].International Journal of Climatology,2006,26(14):2023-2039.
[12]Narisma G T,Foley J A,Licker R,et al.Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(6):L06710,doi:10.1029/2006GL028628.
[13]李翀,马巍,叶柏生,等.呼伦湖水面蒸发及水量平衡估计[J].水文,2006,26(5):41-44.
[14]王志杰,李畅游,贾克力,等.呼伦湖生态系统健康状况变化趋势分析[C].世界湖泊大会,2009.
[15]万华伟,康峻,高帅,等.呼伦湖水面动态变化遥感监测及气候因素驱动分析[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(3):894-898.
[16]张娜,乌力吉,刘松涛,等.呼伦湖地区气候变化特征及其对湖泊面积的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(7):192-197.
[17]Li C,Sun B,Jia K,et al.Multi-band remote sensing based retrieval model and3Danalysis of water depth in Hulun Lake,China[J].Mathematical&Computer Modelling,2013,58(3/4):771-781.
[18]轩玮,李翀,赵慧颖,等.额尔古纳河流域近50年水文气象要素变化分析[J].水文,2011,31(5):80-87.
[19]赵慧颖,李成才,赵恒和,等.呼伦湖湿地气候变化及其对水环境的影响[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(5):795-801.
[20]王文华,朱添.呼伦贝尔草原地区水文特性分析[J].东北水利水电,2011(7):41-43.
[21]黄健.基于小波理论的呼伦湖流域水文序列随机分析[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2011.
[22]赵慧颖,乌力吉,郝文俊.气候变化对呼伦湖湿地及其周边地区生态环境演变的影响[J].生态学报,2008,28(3):1064-1071.
[23]Moberg A,Jones P D.Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe,1901-99[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(9):1149-1171.
[24]Baigorria G A,Jones J W,Obrien J J.Understanding rainfall spatial variability in southeast USA at different timescales[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,27(6):749-760.
[25]Nolin A W,Hall-McKim E A.Frequency modes of monsoon precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(12):3774-3781.
[26]Partal T,Ozgür K.Wavelet and neuro-fuzzy conjunction model for precipitation forecasting[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,342(1/2):199-212.
[27]Gan T Y,Gobena A K,Wang Q.Precipitation of southwestern Canada:Wavelet,scaling,multifractal analysis,and teleconnection to climate anomalies[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112,D10110,doi:10.1029/2006JD007157.
[28]Bhattacharya G,Jana D,Ojha S,et al.Direct search for minimum reliability index of earth slopes[J].Computers&Geotechnics,2003,30(6):455-462.