基于SD的电网公司业务预测模型研究
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摘要
我国新一轮电力体制改革的深入推进对现有电力市场产生了巨大的影响。在现有电网公司业务关系的基础上进一步拓展,提取待预测关键业务指标,分别建立原政策及新电改政策下电网公司的系统动力学模型,通过对未来3年售电量、购电量等关键业务指标的计算,分析新电改政策对电网公司的影响,结果表明输配电侧改革对于稳定电网公司的收入具有积极作用,而售电侧改革则极大地削弱了电网公司的客户数量与企业竞争力,因此未来电网公司不应仅依赖输配电业务及保底售电业务实现收益,应在保证输配电业务顺利进行的前提下,从售电侧入手制定相应的措施。
A new round of electric power system reform in China has had a great impact on the existing electricity market. On the basis of the existing power grid business relationship, the key business indicators to be predicted are further expanded and extracted. The system dynamics model of power grid company is established under the original policy and the new electricity reform policy respectively.Through the calculation of key business indicators in the next three years, such as electricity sales and purchasing, and the analysis of the influence of the new electric power reform policy upon grid companies, it is shown that the reform of electric power transmission and distribution side plays a positive role for the stability of power grid company's income, while the sale of electric side reform greatly weakened the power grid company's customer number and enterprise competitiveness. Therefore, in the future, the power grid company should realize the revenue not only rely on the power transmission and distribution business, but also from the electricity sale. The company should formulate corresponding measures from the sales side in the premise of ensuring the smooth operation of the transmission and distribution business.
A new round of electric power system reform in China has had a great impact on the existing electricity market. On the basis of the existing power grid business relationship, the key business indicators to be predicted are further expanded and extracted. The system dynamics model of power grid company is established under the original policy and the new electricity reform policy respectively.Through the calculation of key business indicators in the next three years, such as electricity sales and purchasing, and the analysis of the influence of the new electric power reform policy upon grid companies, it is shown that the reform of electric power transmission and distribution side plays a positive role for the stability of power grid company's income, while the sale of electric side reform greatly weakened the power grid company's customer number and enterprise competitiveness. Therefore, in the future, the power grid company should realize the revenue not only rely on the power transmission and distribution business, but also from the electricity sale. The company should formulate corresponding measures from the sales side in the premise of ensuring the smooth operation of the transmission and distribution business.
引文
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[2]马莉,范孟华,郭磊,等.国外电力市场最新发展动向及其启示[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(13):1-9.MA Li,FAN Menghua,GUO Lei,et.The latest development trend and enlightenment of foreign power market[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(13):1-9.
[3]张晓萱,薛松,杨素,等.售电侧市场放开国际经验及其启示[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(9):1-8.ZHANG Xiaoxuan,XUE Song,YANG Su,et al.Experience and enlightenment of power sales side market liberalization[J].Automation of Electric Power System,2016,40(9):1-8.
[4]KARAKI S H,DAHER A,HAWA R.Assessment of a distributed resource plan for the Lebanese electric power system[C].Bologna:Proceedings of 2003 IEEE Power Technology Conference,2003.
[5]黄孝容,华国春.国网四川省电力公司应对新电改措施研究[J].吉林水利,2016,36(11):4-7.HUANG Xiaoronog,HUA Guochun.Study on the measures of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company to deal with the new electric power system reform[J].Jilin Water Resources,2016,36(11):4-7.
[6]刘跃,刘风娥.新电改形势下电网公司发展的机遇挑战与对策[J].国网技术学院学报,2015,18(6):22-23.LIU Yue,LIU Feng'e.Opportunities,challenges and countermeasures of power grid enterprise development under the new situation of power industry reform[J].Journal of State Grid Technology College,2015,18(6):22-23.
[7]才华.国网汉中供电公司售电侧市场放开竞争策略研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2017.
[8]肖先勇,马愿谦,莫文雄,等.售电侧放开背景下电网公司优质电力增值服务模式[J].电力科学与技术学报,2016,31(4):4-10.XIAO Xianyong,MA Yuanqian,MO Wenxiong,et al.Premium power based valueadded service model for power supply company under the opening electricity retail side[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2016,31(4):4-10.
[9]胡晨,杜松怀,苏娟,等.新电改背景下我国售电公司的购售电途径与经营模式探讨[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3293-3299.HU Chen,DU Songhuai,SU Juan,et al.Preliminary research of trading approach and management modes of chinese electricity retail companies under new electricity market reform[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3293-3299.
[10]陈政,王丽华,曾鸣,等.国内外售电侧改革背景下的电力需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2016,18(3):62-64.CHEN Zheng,WANG Lihua,ZENG Ming,et al.How to promote DSM under the background of marketing electricity side reform at home and abroad[J].Power Demand Side Management2016,18(3):62-64.
[11]张晨.售电放开政策下电力交易多方主体利益分析模型研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[12]万明勇,王超,陈晋勇,等.基于系统动力学的电网公司财务预测模型研究[J].现代经济信息,2016,37(19):153-154.WAN Mingchao,WANG Chao,CHEN Jinyong,et al.Study on financial forecasting model of power grid company based on system dynamics[J].Modern Economic Information,2016,37(19):153-154.
[13]BRAGA A S D,SARAIVA J T.A multiyear dynamic approach for transmission expansion planning and long-term marginal costs computation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1631-1639.
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[15]张薛鸿,董达鹏,李晨,等.基于系统动力学的电网公司综合计划关键指标预测[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(11):192-194.ZHANG Xuehong,DONG Dapeng,LI Chen,et al.Key indicators of comprehensive program forecasting for power grid enterprises based on system dynamics[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(11):192-194.
[16]李雪亮,薛万磊,彭丽霖,等.系统动力学模型在电网公司经营决策支持中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(9):240-242.LI Xueliang,XUE Wanlei,PENG Lilin,et al.Application of system dynamics in grid enterprise's business decision-making[J].Water Resources and Power,2013,31(9):240-242.
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[18]王帆,顾洁,张宇俊,等.基于系统动力学的配电网规划评价[J].电力科学与技术学报,2011,26(2):77-83.WANG Fan,GU Jie,ZHANG Yujun,et al.Assessment of distribution grid planning based on system dynamics theory[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2011,26(2):77-83.
[19]王伟,张粒子,舒隽,等.基于系统动力学的宏观层电网规划的仿真模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(4):88-93.WANG Wei,ZHANG Lizi,SHU Jun,et al.Simulation model of transmission network macro-planning.based on system dynamics[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(4):88-93.
[20]陈晨艳.电力企业综合计划管理方法研究[J].机电信息,2010,10(30):16-17.CHEN Chenyan.Research on comprehensive plan management methods of power enterprises[J].Electrical and Mechanical Information,2010,10(30):16-17.
[21]叶炯,史景超,王东旭.电力公司综合计划管理的难点与对策[J].中外企业家,2011,27(20):9-11.YE Jiong,SHI Jingchao,WANG Dongxu.Difficulties and countermeasures of comprehensive plan management in electric power company[J].Chinese Foreign Entrepreneurs,2011,27(10):25-26.