FDI流动与全球价值链分工变化——基于社会网络分析的视角
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摘要
当前,越来越多的发达国家正在将GVC中原属于中国的分工区段转移至越南、印度等劳动力成本相对低廉的国家或地区。面对上述形势,中国该如何打造对外开放的新模式?又该如何寻求基于GVC的新升级路径?文章力求从全球FDI流动网络的视角,对上述问题进行探讨。基于2001-2012年的全球FDI总量、流入和流出三种流动网络数据,文章创新性地采用社会网络分析方法,对全球FDI流动网络及其一国网络特征进行刻画,并从网络集约性和网络广延性两个维度实证检验一国FDI流动网络特征对其全球价值链分工地位的影响。研究结果显示:在上述全球FDI三种流动网络中,一国FDI流动网络特征将会显著影响其全球价值链分工地位。鉴于FDI流动网络带来的只是价值链升级优势,而非价值链升级资源,文章进一步考查FDI流动网络带来的价值链升级优势转化为价值链升级资源的过程。研究发现:对于发展中国家而言,较高的技术吸收能力更能强化FDI网络特征对其在全球价值链分工地位中的影响,尤其在资本跨国流出网络方面,这意味着借助资本跨国流动促进技术溢出效应的主导途径应逐渐由FDI转向ODI。文章丰富了有关FDI技术溢出效应的研究,对如何调控和管理FDI流动具有一定的指导意义。
With the convenience and timeliness of information communication,as well as the low cost of cross-border transportation,Global Value Chain(GVC) led by intra-product division emerged in the1980 s. During that period,China embedded in GVC quickly by relying on the advantages of labor endowment.However,China is still in the low-end of GVC. There is a serious asymmetry between trade volumes and trade gains brought by GVC,and more and more developed countries gradually transfer the division of labor that originally belonged to China in GVC to countries such as India where labor costs are relatively low because of China's increasing labor costs. Global economic uncertainty has increased recently. The limitations of China's long-term embedding in GVC's low value-added links have become more apparent. Facing the above situations,how to seek a new upgrade path based on GVC,and how to use technology spillover effects brought by FDI to promote healthy and sustainable development of the Chinese economy? Based on the existing research,this paper attempts to explore these issues from a new perspective of global FDI flow networks. This paper uses bilateral FDI flow data of 40 countries or regions published by UNCTAD from 2001 to2012 to build a global FDI sum,inflow networks and outflow networks,and innovatively adopts social network analysis methods to study the overall patterns of these three kinds of global FDI flow networks. It finds that the density values of global FDI flow networks show an increasing trend from 2001 to 2012,and FDI flow connections among countries are gradually strengthened. Furthermore,to the network characteristics of countries or regions,it points out that global FDI flow networks are skewed,and the distributions of network intensiveness and network extensiveness are right-biased,but the trends of changes are different. Based on the above analysis,this paper then empirically tests how one country's FDI flow network characteristics affect its GVC division of labor. Results show that the increase of one country's FDI flow network intensiveness and extensiveness can significantly improve this country's GVC division of labor. Furthermore,in view of the fact FDI flow networks only bring value chain upgrade advantages rather than value chain upgrade resources,this paper then verifies the existence of transformation process of "value chain upgrade advantages—value chain upgrade resources" from technology absorption capacity,points out strengthening the technology absorption capacity of developing countries can more heavily enhance this transformation and be more conducive to improve GVC division of labor,especially in outflow networks. In short,this paper mainly expands the existing research from the following three aspects. First,the application of social network analysis methods in FDI analyses enriches the research on technology spillover effects of FDI,which is the demand for continuous development of global FDI flows. Second,the distinction of"value chain upgrade advantages" and "value chain upgrade resources" can more accurately evaluate promotion value chain upgrade effects brought by FDI flow networks. Third,the higher the technology absorption capacity of developing countries is,the more it can strengthen the impact of FDI network characteristics on its GVC division of labor,especially in capital outflow networks,which has certain guiding significance on how to regulate FDI flows.
With the convenience and timeliness of information communication,as well as the low cost of cross-border transportation,Global Value Chain(GVC) led by intra-product division emerged in the1980 s. During that period,China embedded in GVC quickly by relying on the advantages of labor endowment.However,China is still in the low-end of GVC. There is a serious asymmetry between trade volumes and trade gains brought by GVC,and more and more developed countries gradually transfer the division of labor that originally belonged to China in GVC to countries such as India where labor costs are relatively low because of China's increasing labor costs. Global economic uncertainty has increased recently. The limitations of China's long-term embedding in GVC's low value-added links have become more apparent. Facing the above situations,how to seek a new upgrade path based on GVC,and how to use technology spillover effects brought by FDI to promote healthy and sustainable development of the Chinese economy? Based on the existing research,this paper attempts to explore these issues from a new perspective of global FDI flow networks. This paper uses bilateral FDI flow data of 40 countries or regions published by UNCTAD from 2001 to2012 to build a global FDI sum,inflow networks and outflow networks,and innovatively adopts social network analysis methods to study the overall patterns of these three kinds of global FDI flow networks. It finds that the density values of global FDI flow networks show an increasing trend from 2001 to 2012,and FDI flow connections among countries are gradually strengthened. Furthermore,to the network characteristics of countries or regions,it points out that global FDI flow networks are skewed,and the distributions of network intensiveness and network extensiveness are right-biased,but the trends of changes are different. Based on the above analysis,this paper then empirically tests how one country's FDI flow network characteristics affect its GVC division of labor. Results show that the increase of one country's FDI flow network intensiveness and extensiveness can significantly improve this country's GVC division of labor. Furthermore,in view of the fact FDI flow networks only bring value chain upgrade advantages rather than value chain upgrade resources,this paper then verifies the existence of transformation process of "value chain upgrade advantages—value chain upgrade resources" from technology absorption capacity,points out strengthening the technology absorption capacity of developing countries can more heavily enhance this transformation and be more conducive to improve GVC division of labor,especially in outflow networks. In short,this paper mainly expands the existing research from the following three aspects. First,the application of social network analysis methods in FDI analyses enriches the research on technology spillover effects of FDI,which is the demand for continuous development of global FDI flows. Second,the distinction of"value chain upgrade advantages" and "value chain upgrade resources" can more accurately evaluate promotion value chain upgrade effects brought by FDI flow networks. Third,the higher the technology absorption capacity of developing countries is,the more it can strengthen the impact of FDI network characteristics on its GVC division of labor,especially in capital outflow networks,which has certain guiding significance on how to regulate FDI flows.
引文
[1]黄先海,宋学印.准前沿经济体的技术进步路径及动力转换--从“追赶导向”到“竞争导向”[J].中国社会科学,2017,(6):60-79.
[2]黄先海,杨高举.中国高技术产业的国际分工地位研究:基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的跨国分析[J].世界经济,2010,(5):82-100.
[3]马述忠,任婉婉,吴国杰.一国农产品贸易网络特征及其对全球价值链分工的影响--基于社会网络分析视角[J].管理世界,2016,(3):60-72.
[4]Antràs P,Chor D,Fally T,et al.Measuring the upstreamness of production and trade flows[J].The American Economic Review,2012,102(3):412-416.
[5]Brown D W,Konrad A M.Granovetter was right:The importance of weak ties to a contemporary job search[J].Group&Organization Management,2001,26(4):434-462.
[6]Burt R S.Structural holes:The social structure of competition[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992.
[7]Cozza C,Rabellotti R,Sanfilippo M.The impact of outward FDI on the performance of Chinese firms[J].China Economic Review,2015,36:42-57.
[8]Du L S,Harrison A,Jefferson G H.Testing for horizontal and vertical foreign investment spillovers in China,1998-2007[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2012,23(3):234-243.
[9]El-Khatib R,Fogel K,Jandik T.CEO network centrality and merger performance[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2015,116(2):349-382.
[10]Faber B.Trade integration,market size,and industrialization:Evidence from China’s national trunk highway system[J].Review of Economic Studies,2014,81(3):1046-1070.
[11]Fagiolo G,Reyes J,Schiavo S.World-trade web:Topological properties,dynamics,and evolution[J].Physical Review E,2009,79(3):1-19.
[12]Fracasso A,Marzetti G V.International R&D spillovers,absorptive capacity and relative backwardness:A panel smooth transition regression model[J].International Economic Journal,2014,28(1):137-160.
[13]Granovetter M S.The strength of weak ties[J].American Journal of Sociology,1973,78(6):1360-1380.
[14]Javorcik B S.Does foreign direct investment increase the productivity of domestic firms?In search of spillovers through backward linkages[J].The American Economic Review,2004,94(3):605-627.
[15]Koopman R,Powers W,Wang Z,et al.Give credit where credit is due:Tracing value added in global production chains[R].NBER Working Paper 16426,2010.
[16]Lentz R,Mortensen D T.An empirical model of growth through product innovation[J].Econometrica,2008,76(6):1317-1373.
[17]Ma Y,Tang H W,Zhang Y F.Factor intensity,product switching,and productivity:Evidence from Chinese exporters[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(2):349-362.
[18]Reimer J.Global production sharing and trade in the services of factors[J].Journal of International Economics,2006,68:384-408.
(1)后文中,如果没有涉及具体的国家或地区,为了叙述方便,常常以一国或国家指代这里所述的国家或地区。
(1)Burt(1992)指出:“结构洞连接了非冗余的联系人,两个行动者之间的非冗余的关联便是一个结构洞。”
(2)技术吸收能力是指发现外部技术信息的价值并将其吸收、转化、提高工业生产效率的能力的集合。
(1)由于UNCTAD FDI/TNC数据库中各国FDI数据在2012年以后存在缺失,故本文样本期间选在2001-2012年。本文的最终落脚点在GVC分工变化上,由于本文计算GVC的数据来自2016年版WIOD数据库,该数据库提供43个国家(地区)的投入产出数据,综合考虑需要匹配UNCTAD FDI/TNC数据库以及后文各控制变量数据的可得性,最终确定40个国家或地区样本,包括澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥、爱尔兰、爱沙尼亚、奥地利、比利时、波兰、保加利亚、德国、丹麦、俄罗斯、芬兰、法国、荷兰、克罗地亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、卢森堡、挪威、马耳他、葡萄牙、塞浦路斯、希腊、匈牙利、印度尼西亚、意大利、斯洛文尼亚、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、土耳其、英国、美国、加拿大、韩国、日本、印度、中国、中国台湾。后文所提及的全球样本都是如此。
(2)该式主要针对FDI总量流动网络。当加权FDI流入流动网络时,odiitij=0;当加权FDI流出流动网络时,fdtij=0。
(1)考虑到最后得出的数值存在小于0的情况,本文按照ln(1+变量值)方法进行处理。
(2)国际上一般把15-64岁的人口列为劳动年龄人口。
(3)尽管2016年版WIOD数据库中数据已更新至2014年,然而UNCTAD FDI/TNC数据库中各国FDI数据在2012年以后存在缺失问题,故本文将样本期间选在2001-2012年。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未给出具体散点图;如有需要,可向作者索取。
(2)这里的国家数量之和为该国的FDI来源国数量加上ODI东道国数量,再减去重复国家的数量。
(1)需要注意的是,这里用传统方法所度量的网络广延性(即FDI目的国数量或(和)ODI东道国数量),其数值越大,表明广延性越强;反之则反是。这正好与前文基础回归中的网络广延性的结果相反。具体表现在表1中网络广延性回归数值的符号不同。
(2)这里提及母国情况的缘由在于存在前文所分析的逆向技术溢出情形,即技术寻求型ODI。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未给出具体的回归结果;如有需要,可向作者索取。
(2)由于网络集约性特征指标通过加权形式已能较好地反映流动强度,且是现有研究中惯用的方法,故未做稳健性检验。
[2]黄先海,杨高举.中国高技术产业的国际分工地位研究:基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的跨国分析[J].世界经济,2010,(5):82-100.
[3]马述忠,任婉婉,吴国杰.一国农产品贸易网络特征及其对全球价值链分工的影响--基于社会网络分析视角[J].管理世界,2016,(3):60-72.
[4]Antràs P,Chor D,Fally T,et al.Measuring the upstreamness of production and trade flows[J].The American Economic Review,2012,102(3):412-416.
[5]Brown D W,Konrad A M.Granovetter was right:The importance of weak ties to a contemporary job search[J].Group&Organization Management,2001,26(4):434-462.
[6]Burt R S.Structural holes:The social structure of competition[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1992.
[7]Cozza C,Rabellotti R,Sanfilippo M.The impact of outward FDI on the performance of Chinese firms[J].China Economic Review,2015,36:42-57.
[8]Du L S,Harrison A,Jefferson G H.Testing for horizontal and vertical foreign investment spillovers in China,1998-2007[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2012,23(3):234-243.
[9]El-Khatib R,Fogel K,Jandik T.CEO network centrality and merger performance[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2015,116(2):349-382.
[10]Faber B.Trade integration,market size,and industrialization:Evidence from China’s national trunk highway system[J].Review of Economic Studies,2014,81(3):1046-1070.
[11]Fagiolo G,Reyes J,Schiavo S.World-trade web:Topological properties,dynamics,and evolution[J].Physical Review E,2009,79(3):1-19.
[12]Fracasso A,Marzetti G V.International R&D spillovers,absorptive capacity and relative backwardness:A panel smooth transition regression model[J].International Economic Journal,2014,28(1):137-160.
[13]Granovetter M S.The strength of weak ties[J].American Journal of Sociology,1973,78(6):1360-1380.
[14]Javorcik B S.Does foreign direct investment increase the productivity of domestic firms?In search of spillovers through backward linkages[J].The American Economic Review,2004,94(3):605-627.
[15]Koopman R,Powers W,Wang Z,et al.Give credit where credit is due:Tracing value added in global production chains[R].NBER Working Paper 16426,2010.
[16]Lentz R,Mortensen D T.An empirical model of growth through product innovation[J].Econometrica,2008,76(6):1317-1373.
[17]Ma Y,Tang H W,Zhang Y F.Factor intensity,product switching,and productivity:Evidence from Chinese exporters[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(2):349-362.
[18]Reimer J.Global production sharing and trade in the services of factors[J].Journal of International Economics,2006,68:384-408.
(1)后文中,如果没有涉及具体的国家或地区,为了叙述方便,常常以一国或国家指代这里所述的国家或地区。
(1)Burt(1992)指出:“结构洞连接了非冗余的联系人,两个行动者之间的非冗余的关联便是一个结构洞。”
(2)技术吸收能力是指发现外部技术信息的价值并将其吸收、转化、提高工业生产效率的能力的集合。
(1)由于UNCTAD FDI/TNC数据库中各国FDI数据在2012年以后存在缺失,故本文样本期间选在2001-2012年。本文的最终落脚点在GVC分工变化上,由于本文计算GVC的数据来自2016年版WIOD数据库,该数据库提供43个国家(地区)的投入产出数据,综合考虑需要匹配UNCTAD FDI/TNC数据库以及后文各控制变量数据的可得性,最终确定40个国家或地区样本,包括澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥、爱尔兰、爱沙尼亚、奥地利、比利时、波兰、保加利亚、德国、丹麦、俄罗斯、芬兰、法国、荷兰、克罗地亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、卢森堡、挪威、马耳他、葡萄牙、塞浦路斯、希腊、匈牙利、印度尼西亚、意大利、斯洛文尼亚、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、土耳其、英国、美国、加拿大、韩国、日本、印度、中国、中国台湾。后文所提及的全球样本都是如此。
(2)该式主要针对FDI总量流动网络。当加权FDI流入流动网络时,odiitij=0;当加权FDI流出流动网络时,fdtij=0。
(1)考虑到最后得出的数值存在小于0的情况,本文按照ln(1+变量值)方法进行处理。
(2)国际上一般把15-64岁的人口列为劳动年龄人口。
(3)尽管2016年版WIOD数据库中数据已更新至2014年,然而UNCTAD FDI/TNC数据库中各国FDI数据在2012年以后存在缺失问题,故本文将样本期间选在2001-2012年。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未给出具体散点图;如有需要,可向作者索取。
(2)这里的国家数量之和为该国的FDI来源国数量加上ODI东道国数量,再减去重复国家的数量。
(1)需要注意的是,这里用传统方法所度量的网络广延性(即FDI目的国数量或(和)ODI东道国数量),其数值越大,表明广延性越强;反之则反是。这正好与前文基础回归中的网络广延性的结果相反。具体表现在表1中网络广延性回归数值的符号不同。
(2)这里提及母国情况的缘由在于存在前文所分析的逆向技术溢出情形,即技术寻求型ODI。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未给出具体的回归结果;如有需要,可向作者索取。
(2)由于网络集约性特征指标通过加权形式已能较好地反映流动强度,且是现有研究中惯用的方法,故未做稳健性检验。