进近管制系统风险控制网络模型
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摘要
为降低进近管制系统的风险水平,保证飞行的安全性,基于过程方法识别进近管制系统中的风险,并确定相应的风险控制策略;通过构建虚拟风险节点扩展的风险控制网络图,将单一风险因素的控制问题转化成相互关联的整体的风险组合控制问题,建立进近管制系统的风险控制网络模型,确定风险控制的最优组合方案;应用该模型进行算例分析。结果表明:运用该模型获得的系统风险降低值为19. 30,所需控制成本为22. 70万元;用该模型可确定出最优的组合控制方案,降低系统的风险水平。
In order to reduce risks in the approach control system and ensure the safety of the flight,firstly,based on the process method, risks in the approach control system were identified,and a corresponding risk control strategy was determined. Then,by constructing the extended risk control network chart of virtual risk nodes,the control problem of single risk factor was transformed into an integrated whole risk combination control problem. A risk control network model of the approach control system was built. The optimal combination scheme of risk control was determined. Finally,the model was applied to analyze a certain example. The results show that the system risk reduction value by the model is 19.30,and the required control cost is 227 000 Yuan,and that the model can be used to determine the optimal combination control scheme and reduce the risk level of the system.
In order to reduce risks in the approach control system and ensure the safety of the flight,firstly,based on the process method, risks in the approach control system were identified,and a corresponding risk control strategy was determined. Then,by constructing the extended risk control network chart of virtual risk nodes,the control problem of single risk factor was transformed into an integrated whole risk combination control problem. A risk control network model of the approach control system was built. The optimal combination scheme of risk control was determined. Finally,the model was applied to analyze a certain example. The results show that the system risk reduction value by the model is 19.30,and the required control cost is 227 000 Yuan,and that the model can be used to determine the optimal combination control scheme and reduce the risk level of the system.
引文
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[2]SHORROCK S T.Errors of memory in air traffic control[J].Safety Science,2005,43(8):571-588.
[3]PETER S.Risk assessment and mitigation in ATM[J].Safety Science,2006,44(7):629-655.
[4]WANG Yanyang,CAO Yihua.Civil aviation risk model based on RON neural network[C].Proceedings of Twelfth Cota International Conference of Transportation Professionals,2012:1 828-1 836.
[5]KHARCHENKO V,CHYNCHENKO Y.Models of air traffic controllers errors prevention in terminal control areas under uncertainty conditions[J].Proceedings of the National Aviation University,2017,70(1):7-13.
[6]KONTOGIANNIS T,MALAKIS S,MCDONALD N.Integrating operational and risk information with system risk models in air traffic control[J].Cognition,Technology&Work,2017,19:345-361.
[7]伍世清,衡丹.防止空管人为因素危及飞行安全[J].科技创新导报,2009(15):208.
[8]刘堂卿.空中交通管制安全风险耦合机理研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2011.LIU Tangqing.Research on coupling mechanism of safety risks for air traffic control[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2011.
[9]罗帆,杨智.空中交通管制安全风险预警决策模式[J].武汉理工大学学报:信息与管理工程版,2013,35(2):274-278.LUO Fan,YANG Zhi.Early warning decision model of safety risk in air traffic control[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Information and Managemengt Engineering,2013,35(2):274-278.
[10]罗通元,吴超.SIC思维下的事故致因模型构建与实证分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(10):1-6.LUO Tongyuan,WU Chao.Construction and empirical analysis of accident cause model under SIC thinking[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(10):1-6.
[11]陈勇刚,熊升华,贺强,等.民航机务维修不安全事件N-K风险耦合分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(2):104-109.CHEN Yonggang,XIONG Shenghua.HE Qiang,et al.N-K model based analysis of risk coupling in civil aviation maintenance unsafe events[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(2):104-109.
[12]柴邦衡.ISO 9000质量管理体系[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002:95.
[13]金伟伟.基于管制过程的终端区管制安全风险管理研究[D].天津:中国民航大学,2016.JIN Weiwei.Research on terminal area control security risk management based on control process[D].Tianjin:Civil Aviation University of China,2016.
[14]张俊强,胡德振,曹悦琪,等.基于信息熵的危险天气下终端区管制风险评估[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2017,49(增1):125-130.ZHANG Junqiang,HU Dezhen,CAO Yueqi,et al.Risk evaluation of terminal area control in dangerous weather based on information entropy[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2017,49(S1):125-130.
[15]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所.世界民航事故调查跟踪[R],2014.
[16]颜颖.中国林业生态工程项目风险管理研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2008.YAN Ying.Study on project risk management of the forestry ecological engineering in china[D].Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2008.
[17]卢开澄,卢华明.图论及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1995:1-18.