2015年11月浙江省降水异常成因分析
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摘要
利用NCEP/NCAR大气环流资料、NOAA ERSST.V3b海温资料以及浙江省66个台站1971年以来的降水资料,分析了浙江省11月降水偏多对应的高低层大气环流异常特征以及与热带海温异常的联系,并在此基础上对2015年11月浙江省降水异常偏多的事实进行梳理和个例诊断。结果显示,2015年11月浙江省处于降水偏多的气候背景,同时北半球北极涛动正位相异常偏强、中高纬地区经向环流偏弱,西北太平洋副热带高压强度异常偏强、位置偏西是造成降水异常偏多的主要原因;统计分析表明巴尔喀什湖地区500 h Pa高度场和西太平洋副热带高压强度与浙江省11月份降水具有显著相关;厄尔尼诺是导致浙江省11月降水偏多的重要外强迫因子之一,2015年11月Nio3.4指数达历史峰值,是造成浙江省同期降水异常偏多的主要原因。
By using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,ERSST.V3 b sea surface temperature data from NOAA and the precipitation data of 66 observational stations since 1971 in Zhejiang province.The correlation between the statistical features of the abnormal atmospheric circulation as well as the tropical sea surface temperature and the more than normal precipitation in November over Zhejiang province were analyzed.Furthermore,the mechanism for anomalous precipitation in November,2015 was studied.Results show that the precipitation in November,2015 is due to the anomalous heavy decadal background,meanwhile,the Arctic Oscillation is positive and the intensity is abnormally stronger,the meridional circulation at mid-high latitude is weaker than normal,and the West Pacific subtropical high is enhanced and more westward than normal,leading to the extremely anomalous precipitation in November of 2015.Statistical analysis reveals that precipitation in November is mainly related to the geopotential height in wide ranges from Balkhash to Baikal and strength of the West Pacific subtropical high.Finally,El Nio is proved as akey external forcing factor influencing the precipitation of November in Zhejiang province.The Nino3.4 index in November of 2015 reaches the highest which result in the flooding over Zhejiang province.
By using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,ERSST.V3 b sea surface temperature data from NOAA and the precipitation data of 66 observational stations since 1971 in Zhejiang province.The correlation between the statistical features of the abnormal atmospheric circulation as well as the tropical sea surface temperature and the more than normal precipitation in November over Zhejiang province were analyzed.Furthermore,the mechanism for anomalous precipitation in November,2015 was studied.Results show that the precipitation in November,2015 is due to the anomalous heavy decadal background,meanwhile,the Arctic Oscillation is positive and the intensity is abnormally stronger,the meridional circulation at mid-high latitude is weaker than normal,and the West Pacific subtropical high is enhanced and more westward than normal,leading to the extremely anomalous precipitation in November of 2015.Statistical analysis reveals that precipitation in November is mainly related to the geopotential height in wide ranges from Balkhash to Baikal and strength of the West Pacific subtropical high.Finally,El Nio is proved as akey external forcing factor influencing the precipitation of November in Zhejiang province.The Nino3.4 index in November of 2015 reaches the highest which result in the flooding over Zhejiang province.
引文
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[20]Smith T M,Reynolds R W,Peterson T C,et al.Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis(1880-2006).J.Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
[21]袁晓玉,施能,顾骏强.浙江省秋季降水趋势及旱涝年特征.南京气象学院学报,2002,25(5):677-684.YUAN Xiaoyu,SHI Neng,GU Junqiang.Autumn rainfall trends and features of flood and drought years of Zhejiang province.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),2002,25(5):677-684.
[22]WANG Kuo,FENG Guolin,ZENG Yuxing,et al.Extraction of10-30-day stable components from a boreal atmosphere during ENSO phases.Discrete Dyn.Nat.Soc.,2015,2015:Article ID919286.
[23]周长艳,李跃清,李薇,等.东亚地区秋季水汽输送特征及水汽源地分析.热带气象学报,2006,22(4):380-385.ZHOU Changyan,LI Yueqing,LI Wei,et al.Climatological characteristics of water vapor transport over East Asian and water vapor source in autumn.Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),2006,22(4):380-385.
[24]袁媛,杨辉,李崇银.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响.气象学报,2012,70(3):467-478.YUAN Yuan,YANG Hui,LI Chongyin.Study of El Nio events of different types and their potential impact on the following-summer precipitation in China.Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,70(3):467-478.
[25]王钦,李双林,付建建,等.1998和2010年夏季降水异常成因的对比分析:兼论两类不同厄尔尼诺事件的影响.气象学报,2012,70(6):1207-1222.WANG Qin,LI Shuanglin,FU Jianjian,et al.On the formation of anomalous summer precipitation in the years of 2010 and 1998:A comparison of the El Nio’s impact between Modoki and typical El Nio cases.Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,70(6):1207-1222.
[2]李洪权,陈中赟,骆丽楠,等.南亚高压和高低空急流对2010年浙江梅汛期暴雨的影响.气象科学,2012,32(3):310-316.LI Hongquan,CHEN Zhongyun,LUO Li’nan,et al.The effect of south Asia high and upper and lower-level jets on Meiyu rainstorm in Zhejiang province during 2010.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2012,32(3):310-316.
[3]苗长明,郭品文,丁一汇,等.江南南部初夏汛期降水特征I:降水集中期及其变化.大气科学学报,2013,36(4):399-408.MIAO Changming,GUO Pinwen,DING Yihui,et al.Characteristics of the early summer rainy season precipitation in southern part of the south of Yangtze River valley I:Precipitation concentration period and its variation.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2013,36(4):399-408.
[4]MA Xinye,ZHANG Yaocun.Numerical study of the impacts of urban expansion on Meiyu precipitation over eastern China.J.Meteor.Res.,2015,29(2):237-256.
[5]何敏.我国主要秋雨区的分布及长期预报.气象,1984,10(9):10-13.HE Min.The distribution and long-term prediction of Chinese autumn precipition.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),1984,10(9):10-13.
[6]王遵娅,丁一汇.中国雨季的气候学特征.大气科学,2008,32(1):1-13.WANG Zunya,DING Yihui.Climatic characteristics of rainy seasons in China.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2008,32(1):1-13.
[7]牛宁,李建平.2004年中国长江以南地区严重秋旱特征及其同期大气环流异常.大气科学,2007,31(2):254-264.NIU Ning,LI Jianping.The features of the heavy drought occurring to the south of the Yangtze river in China as well as the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in autumn 2004.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),2007,31(2):254-264.
[8]樊高峰,苗长明.2004年浙江省主要气候事件回顾.浙江气象,2005,26(4):15-18,44.FAN Gaofeng,MIAO Changming.Climate events in Zhejiang province during 2004.Journal of Zhejiang Meteorology(in Chinese),2005,26(4):15-18,44.
[9]高由禧,郭其蕴.我国的秋雨现象.气象学报,1958,29(4):264-273.GAO Youxi,GUO Qiyun.On the autumn raining area in China.Acta Metrerologica Sinica(in Chinese),1958,29(4):264-273.
[10]席林华.秋雨的天气气候分析和波谱分析.浙江气象科技,1995,16(2):21-24.XI Linhua.Synoptical and climatological analysis,spectrum analysis on autumn rainfall.Zhejiang Qixiang Keji(in Chinese),1995,16(2):21-24.
[11]谌芸,施能.我国秋季降水、温度的时空分布特征及气候变化.南京气象学院学报,2003,26(5):622-630.CHEN Yun,SHI Neng.Spatial and temporal distribution of autumn precipitation and temperature in China and climatic change.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),2003,26(5):622-630.
[12]NIU Ning,LI Jianping.Interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relation to atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,2008,25(1):117-125.
[13]顾薇,李维京,陈丽娟,等.我国秋季降水的年际变化及与热带太平洋海温异常分布的关系.气候与环境研究,2012,17(4):467-480.GU Wei,LI Weijing,CHEN Lijuan,et al.Interannual variations of autumn precipitation in China and their relations to the distribution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature.Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),2012,17(4):467-480.
[14]龚道溢,王绍武.ENSO对中国四季降水的影响.自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):44-52.GONG Daoyi,WANG Shaowu.Impact of ENSO on the seasonal rainfall in China.Journal of Natural Disasters(in Chinese),1998,7(4):44-52.
[15]谌芸,施能.厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与我国秋季气候异常.热带气象学报,2003,19(2):137-146.CHEN Yun,SHI Neng.EL NINO/ENSO and climatic anomaly in the autumn of China.Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),2003,19(2):137-146.
[16]许武成,马劲松,王文.关于ENSO事件及其对中国气候影响研究的综述.气象科学,2005,25(2):212-220.XU Wucheng,MA Jinsong,WANG Wen.An review of studys on the influence of ENSO events on the climate in China.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2005,25(2):212-220.
[17]刘宣飞,袁慧珍.ENSO对印度洋偶极子与中国秋季降水关系的影响.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(6):762-768.LIU Xuanfei,YUAN Huizhen.Effects of ENSO on the relationship between IOD and autumn rainfall in China.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),2006,29(6):762-768.
[18]刘嘉慧敏,张文君,何金海,等.前期春季西北太平洋潜热通量与中国南方秋季降水的联系及其可能的物理机制.气象学报,2015,73(2):305-318.LIU Jiahuimin,ZHANG Wenjun,HE Jinhai,et al.Relationships between the prophase spring latent heat flux anomalies in the western North Pacific and autumn rainfalls over South China and its possible physical mechanism.Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2015,73(2):305-318.
[19]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1996,77(3):437-471.
[20]Smith T M,Reynolds R W,Peterson T C,et al.Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis(1880-2006).J.Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
[21]袁晓玉,施能,顾骏强.浙江省秋季降水趋势及旱涝年特征.南京气象学院学报,2002,25(5):677-684.YUAN Xiaoyu,SHI Neng,GU Junqiang.Autumn rainfall trends and features of flood and drought years of Zhejiang province.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),2002,25(5):677-684.
[22]WANG Kuo,FENG Guolin,ZENG Yuxing,et al.Extraction of10-30-day stable components from a boreal atmosphere during ENSO phases.Discrete Dyn.Nat.Soc.,2015,2015:Article ID919286.
[23]周长艳,李跃清,李薇,等.东亚地区秋季水汽输送特征及水汽源地分析.热带气象学报,2006,22(4):380-385.ZHOU Changyan,LI Yueqing,LI Wei,et al.Climatological characteristics of water vapor transport over East Asian and water vapor source in autumn.Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),2006,22(4):380-385.
[24]袁媛,杨辉,李崇银.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响.气象学报,2012,70(3):467-478.YUAN Yuan,YANG Hui,LI Chongyin.Study of El Nio events of different types and their potential impact on the following-summer precipitation in China.Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,70(3):467-478.
[25]王钦,李双林,付建建,等.1998和2010年夏季降水异常成因的对比分析:兼论两类不同厄尔尼诺事件的影响.气象学报,2012,70(6):1207-1222.WANG Qin,LI Shuanglin,FU Jianjian,et al.On the formation of anomalous summer precipitation in the years of 2010 and 1998:A comparison of the El Nio’s impact between Modoki and typical El Nio cases.Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2012,70(6):1207-1222.