冬季厄尔尼诺对酒泉2016年夏季降水的影响
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摘要
利用中国气象局国家气候中心160个站点逐月降水资料和西太平洋副热带高压相关指数资料、中国气象局国家气象信息中心2 479个国家级地面站逐月降水资料、美国NCEP/NCAR资料、美国CPC Oceanic Ni1o Index及美国NOAA的ERSST V4海表温度资料,通过对本站降水量和大气环流形势的分析,对厄尔尼诺事件与酒泉地区2016年夏季降水之间的关系进行了相关研究。结果表明:(1)2016年是2015/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件达到峰值之后的衰减年,受此事件的直接和间接影响,2016年夏季中国各地均出现了不同程度的旱涝灾害,总体来讲涝重于旱。地处中国西北内陆腹地的酒泉地区对此事件也表现出了较强的响应,2016年夏季降水较常年同期明显偏多。(2)酒泉夏季降水量与当年冬季Ni1o3.4指数呈正相关,冬季厄尔尼诺事件强度越强,更有利于当年夏季酒泉地区降水。(3)2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件对2016年夏季酒泉地区上空的水汽条件及上升运动均有影响,更充足的水汽条件以及更强烈的上升运动最终导致了降水的明显偏多。
Using the China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center 160 stations monthly precipitation data and the index of WPSH,the China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Center2 479 national ground stations monthly precipitation data,the NCEP/NCAR monthly average 500 hPa height field,700 hPa humidity ratio,700 hPa wind field,the CPC Oceanic Nio Index( Nio3. 4 area monthly average sea surface temperature anomaly),the NOAA ERSST V4 average sea surface temperature data,through the analysis of the precipitation and atmospheric circulation situation of this site,the influences of the EI Nio event on the summer precipitation in Jiuquan region of China in 2016 were studied. The results show:( 1) 2016 is the attenuation year that after the super EI Nio event reached its crest value. Influenced by its direct and indirect effects,in the summer of 2016,different levels of drought and waterlogging occurred in all parts of China. In general,waterlogging is more severe than drought. Located in the hinterland of northwest China,Jiuquan region had also a high response to it. Summer precipitation in Jiuquan region of China in 2016 was significantly more than the same period of other years.( 2) The summer precipitation in Jiuquan region was positively correlated with the Nino3. 4 index in winter of that very year. The stronger EI Nio in winter often more favorable for the summer precipitation in Jiuquan region in the same year.( 3) The 2015/2016 EI Nio event had an impact on the water vapor conditions and the upward movement of Jiuquan area in the summer of 2016,more water vapor conditions and stronger ascending motion eventually led to the significantly higher rainfall.
Using the China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center 160 stations monthly precipitation data and the index of WPSH,the China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Center2 479 national ground stations monthly precipitation data,the NCEP/NCAR monthly average 500 hPa height field,700 hPa humidity ratio,700 hPa wind field,the CPC Oceanic Nio Index( Nio3. 4 area monthly average sea surface temperature anomaly),the NOAA ERSST V4 average sea surface temperature data,through the analysis of the precipitation and atmospheric circulation situation of this site,the influences of the EI Nio event on the summer precipitation in Jiuquan region of China in 2016 were studied. The results show:( 1) 2016 is the attenuation year that after the super EI Nio event reached its crest value. Influenced by its direct and indirect effects,in the summer of 2016,different levels of drought and waterlogging occurred in all parts of China. In general,waterlogging is more severe than drought. Located in the hinterland of northwest China,Jiuquan region had also a high response to it. Summer precipitation in Jiuquan region of China in 2016 was significantly more than the same period of other years.( 2) The summer precipitation in Jiuquan region was positively correlated with the Nino3. 4 index in winter of that very year. The stronger EI Nio in winter often more favorable for the summer precipitation in Jiuquan region in the same year.( 3) The 2015/2016 EI Nio event had an impact on the water vapor conditions and the upward movement of Jiuquan area in the summer of 2016,more water vapor conditions and stronger ascending motion eventually led to the significantly higher rainfall.
引文
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秦甲,丁永建,叶柏生,等,2011.两类El Ni1o事件对我国河西走廊地区水文气象要素的影响[J].高原气象,30(5):1279-1285.Qin J,Ding Y J,Ye B S,et al,2011.Influences of two patterns of EI Ni1o on hydrological and meteorological element in Hexi Corridor region of China[J].Plateau Meteor,30(5):1279-1285.
申红艳,陈丽娟,胡泊,等,2017.西北中部夏季降水主要空间型及环流特征[J].高原气象,36(2):455-467.Shen H Y,Chen LJ,Hu P,et al,2017.Dominant spatial patterns of summer precipitation and circulation characteristic in the middle of northwest China[J].Plateau Meteor,36(2):455-467.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00139.
孙照渤,陈海山,谭桂容,等,2010.短期气候预测基础[M].北京:气象出版社.Sun Z B,Chen H S,Tan G R,et al,2010.Elementa of short period climate predictions[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press.
王亚非,李琰,丁一汇,2012.初夏东亚环流对厄尔尼诺的两种响应过程及其对中国降水的影响[J].气象学报,70(1):39-49.Wang Y F,Li Y,Ding Y H,2012.The two responses of the EastAsian atmospheric circulation in early summer to the preceding EINi1o event and their influence on the rainfall over China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,70(1):39-49.
袁媛,高辉,贾小龙,等,2016.2014 2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响[J].气象,42(5):532-539.Yuan Y,Gao H,Jia XL,et al,2016.Influences of the 2014 2016 super EI Ni1o event on climate[J].Meteor Mon,42(5):532-539.
袁媛,杨辉,李崇银,等,2012.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,70(3):467-478.Yuan Y,Yang H,Li C Y,et al,2012.Study of EI Ni1o events of different types and their potentia impact on the following summer precipitation in China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,70(3):467-478.
翟盘茂,余荣,郭艳君,等,2016.2015/2016年强厄尔尼诺过程及其对全球和中国气候的主要影响[J].气象学报,74(3):309-321.Zhai P M,Yu R,Guo Y J,et al,2016.The strong EI Ni1o in 2015/2016 and its dominat impacts on global and China’s climate[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,74(3):309-321.
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等,2000.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社.Zhu Q G,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al,2000.Principle and method of synoptics[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
Wu R,Kirtman B P,2004.Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM[J].J Climate,17(20):4019-4031.
Yang J,Liu Q,Xie S,et al,2007.Impact of the Indian Ocean SSTbasin mode on the Asian summer monsoon[J].Geophysical Research Letters,34(2):155-164.
陈金明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等,2016.1960 2009年中国夏季极端降水事件与气温的变化及其环流特征[J].高原气象,35(3):675-684.Chen J M,Lu G H,Wu Z Y,et al,2016.Change properties of summer extreme precipitation events and temperature and associated large-scale circulation in China during 1960 2009[J].Plateau Meteor,35(3):675-684.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00072.
黄玉霞,王宝鉴,王研峰,等,2017.甘肃省夏季暴雨日数特征及其与大气环流关系[J].高原气象,36(1):183-194.Huang Y X,Wang B J,Wang Y F,et al,2017.Spatiotemporal characteristics of summer rainstorm days in Gansu Province and their relationships with the atmospheric circulation[J].Plateau Meteor,36(1):183-194.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00118.
贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省,等,2008.祁连山及河西走廊气候变化的时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,28(6):1151-1155.Jia W X,He Y Q,Li Z X,et al,2008.Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of climate change in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor[J].JDesert Res,28(6):1151-1155.
刘屹岷,刘伯奇,任荣彩,等,2016.当前重大厄尔尼诺事件对我国春夏气候的影响[J].中国科学院院刊,31(2):241-250.Liu YM,Liu B Q,Ren R C,et al,2016.Current super EI Ni1o event and its impacts on climate in China in spring and summer[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,31(2):241-250.
孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇,2012.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,67(11):1482-1492.Meng X J,Zhang S F,Zhang Y Y,2012.The temporal and spatial change of temperature and precipitation in Hexi Corridor in recent 57 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,67(11):1482-1492.
秦甲,丁永建,叶柏生,等,2011.两类El Ni1o事件对我国河西走廊地区水文气象要素的影响[J].高原气象,30(5):1279-1285.Qin J,Ding Y J,Ye B S,et al,2011.Influences of two patterns of EI Ni1o on hydrological and meteorological element in Hexi Corridor region of China[J].Plateau Meteor,30(5):1279-1285.
申红艳,陈丽娟,胡泊,等,2017.西北中部夏季降水主要空间型及环流特征[J].高原气象,36(2):455-467.Shen H Y,Chen LJ,Hu P,et al,2017.Dominant spatial patterns of summer precipitation and circulation characteristic in the middle of northwest China[J].Plateau Meteor,36(2):455-467.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00139.
孙照渤,陈海山,谭桂容,等,2010.短期气候预测基础[M].北京:气象出版社.Sun Z B,Chen H S,Tan G R,et al,2010.Elementa of short period climate predictions[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press.
王亚非,李琰,丁一汇,2012.初夏东亚环流对厄尔尼诺的两种响应过程及其对中国降水的影响[J].气象学报,70(1):39-49.Wang Y F,Li Y,Ding Y H,2012.The two responses of the EastAsian atmospheric circulation in early summer to the preceding EINi1o event and their influence on the rainfall over China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,70(1):39-49.
袁媛,高辉,贾小龙,等,2016.2014 2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响[J].气象,42(5):532-539.Yuan Y,Gao H,Jia XL,et al,2016.Influences of the 2014 2016 super EI Ni1o event on climate[J].Meteor Mon,42(5):532-539.
袁媛,杨辉,李崇银,等,2012.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,70(3):467-478.Yuan Y,Yang H,Li C Y,et al,2012.Study of EI Ni1o events of different types and their potentia impact on the following summer precipitation in China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,70(3):467-478.
翟盘茂,余荣,郭艳君,等,2016.2015/2016年强厄尔尼诺过程及其对全球和中国气候的主要影响[J].气象学报,74(3):309-321.Zhai P M,Yu R,Guo Y J,et al,2016.The strong EI Ni1o in 2015/2016 and its dominat impacts on global and China’s climate[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,74(3):309-321.
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等,2000.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社.Zhu Q G,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al,2000.Principle and method of synoptics[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.