战术导弹武器系统战斗工作可靠度评估方法
|
摘要
针对战术导弹武器系统战斗工作可靠度的评定问题,提出了采用二项分布经典评估方法进行直接评估和基于CMSR法进行综合评估的2种评估思路;通过应用实例计算,对2种评定方法进行了比较分析。结果表明:对于分系统样本量差距较大的复杂武器系统,综合评估法会弱化大样本量分系统可靠性数据统计结果在整个系统可靠性评定中起到的作用,而采用直接评估法获得的评定结果是相对严苛的。该计算分析结论,对于复杂武器系统可靠性试验鉴定工作具有较高的借鉴参考价值。
In order to evaluate the combat reliability of tactical missile weapon system,we propose two evaluation methods: one is a direct evaluation method based on binomial distribution; the other is a comprehensive evaluation method based on CMSR. The two methods are comparatively analyzed through applicative examples. The results show that: for complicated weapon systems whose subsystems have large sample size gaps in between,the comprehensive evaluation method will weaken the effect of the reliability statistical results of the large sample size subsystems to the overall system reliability evaluation; while the direct evaluation method obtains a relatively harsh result. This computational conclusion provides a reference for the complicated weapon system reliability test and identification.
In order to evaluate the combat reliability of tactical missile weapon system,we propose two evaluation methods: one is a direct evaluation method based on binomial distribution; the other is a comprehensive evaluation method based on CMSR. The two methods are comparatively analyzed through applicative examples. The results show that: for complicated weapon systems whose subsystems have large sample size gaps in between,the comprehensive evaluation method will weaken the effect of the reliability statistical results of the large sample size subsystems to the overall system reliability evaluation; while the direct evaluation method obtains a relatively harsh result. This computational conclusion provides a reference for the complicated weapon system reliability test and identification.
引文
[1]刘春和,陆祖建.武器装备可靠性评定方法[M].北京:中国宇航出版社,2009.LIU Chun-he,LU Zu-jian. Reliability Evalution Method of Weapon Equipment[M]. Beijing:China Astronautic Press,2009.
[2]王正明,卢芳云,段晓君,等.导弹试验的设计与评估[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.WANG Zheng-ming,LU Fang-yun,DUAN Xiao-jun,et al. Design and Evaluation of Missile Test[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2010.
[3]武小悦,刘琦.装备试验与评价[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2008.WU Xiao-yue,LIU Qi. Equipment Test and Evaluation[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2008.
[4]李金国,傅志高,刘永坚,等.高可靠性航空产品试验技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011.LI Jin-guo,FU Zhi-gao,LIU Yong-jian,et al. Air Products with High Reliability Testing Technology[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2011.
[5]郭波,武小悦.系统可靠性分析[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,2002.GUO Bo,WU Xiao-yue. System Reliability Analysis[M]. Changsha:National University of Defence Technology Press,2002.
[6]曲宝忠,孙晓峰.海军战术导弹试验与鉴定[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.QU Bao-zhong,SUN Xiao-feng. Naval Tactical Missile Test and Evaluation[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2005.
[7]金振中,李晓斌.战术导弹试验设计[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2013.JIN Zhen-zhong,LI Xiao-bin. Design of Tactical Missile Test[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2013.
[8]曹裕华.装备试验设计与评估[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2016.CAO Yu-hua. Equipment Test Design and Evaluation[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2016.
[9]邱有成,谷师泉,徐宏林.可靠性试验技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003.QIU You-cheng,GU Shi-quan,XU Hong-lin. Reliability Test Technology[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2003.
[10]周利东,温玉全,王玮,等.引信可靠性小样本评估方法研究[J].北京理工大学学报,2010,30(7):761-764.ZHOU Li-dong,WEN Yu-quan,WANG Wei,et al. Method of Fuse Reliability Evalution Based on Small Size of Sample[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technolog,2010,30(7):761-764.
[11]丁光强.舰空导弹武器舰面设备可靠性评估[J].海军航空工程学院学报,2013,28(1):752-754.DING Guang-qiang. Reliability Evalution on Ship-to-Air Missile Weapon Deck Equipment[J]. Journal of Naval Aeronautical Engineering Institute,2013,28(1):752-754.
[12]马铖.某星载接收机可靠性评估方法研究[J].可靠性预计与分配,2016,34(5):20-23.MA Cheng. Research on the Reliability Evalution Method of a Satellite Receiver[J]. Reliability Prediction and Distribution,2016,34(5):20-23.
[13]杨仁.基于Bayes理论改进的系统可靠性综合MML法[J].四川兵工学报,2015,36(9):158-161.YANG Ren. Improved MML Method of System Reliability Synthesis Based on Bayesian Theory[J]. Sichuan Ordnance Journal,2015,36(9):158-161.
[14]王小红,许小靓,王立志.基于多试验信息的可靠性综合评估方法[J].装备环境工程,2013,10(4):34-37.WANG Xiao-hong,XU Xiao-liang,WANG Li-zhi. Integrated Reliability Evalution Method Based on Multiple Test Information[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering,2013,10(4):34-37.
[15]宋贵宝,张峰伟.利用相似导弹信息的Bayes可靠性评估方法研究[J].舰船电子工程,2014,34(3):124-126.SONG Gui-bao,ZHANG Feng-wei. Bayes Method to Assessment the Reliability by Using Similar Missile’s Information[J]. Ship Electronic Engineering,2014,34(3):124-126.
[2]王正明,卢芳云,段晓君,等.导弹试验的设计与评估[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.WANG Zheng-ming,LU Fang-yun,DUAN Xiao-jun,et al. Design and Evaluation of Missile Test[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2010.
[3]武小悦,刘琦.装备试验与评价[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2008.WU Xiao-yue,LIU Qi. Equipment Test and Evaluation[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2008.
[4]李金国,傅志高,刘永坚,等.高可靠性航空产品试验技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011.LI Jin-guo,FU Zhi-gao,LIU Yong-jian,et al. Air Products with High Reliability Testing Technology[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2011.
[5]郭波,武小悦.系统可靠性分析[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,2002.GUO Bo,WU Xiao-yue. System Reliability Analysis[M]. Changsha:National University of Defence Technology Press,2002.
[6]曲宝忠,孙晓峰.海军战术导弹试验与鉴定[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.QU Bao-zhong,SUN Xiao-feng. Naval Tactical Missile Test and Evaluation[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2005.
[7]金振中,李晓斌.战术导弹试验设计[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2013.JIN Zhen-zhong,LI Xiao-bin. Design of Tactical Missile Test[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2013.
[8]曹裕华.装备试验设计与评估[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2016.CAO Yu-hua. Equipment Test Design and Evaluation[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2016.
[9]邱有成,谷师泉,徐宏林.可靠性试验技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003.QIU You-cheng,GU Shi-quan,XU Hong-lin. Reliability Test Technology[M]. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2003.
[10]周利东,温玉全,王玮,等.引信可靠性小样本评估方法研究[J].北京理工大学学报,2010,30(7):761-764.ZHOU Li-dong,WEN Yu-quan,WANG Wei,et al. Method of Fuse Reliability Evalution Based on Small Size of Sample[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technolog,2010,30(7):761-764.
[11]丁光强.舰空导弹武器舰面设备可靠性评估[J].海军航空工程学院学报,2013,28(1):752-754.DING Guang-qiang. Reliability Evalution on Ship-to-Air Missile Weapon Deck Equipment[J]. Journal of Naval Aeronautical Engineering Institute,2013,28(1):752-754.
[12]马铖.某星载接收机可靠性评估方法研究[J].可靠性预计与分配,2016,34(5):20-23.MA Cheng. Research on the Reliability Evalution Method of a Satellite Receiver[J]. Reliability Prediction and Distribution,2016,34(5):20-23.
[13]杨仁.基于Bayes理论改进的系统可靠性综合MML法[J].四川兵工学报,2015,36(9):158-161.YANG Ren. Improved MML Method of System Reliability Synthesis Based on Bayesian Theory[J]. Sichuan Ordnance Journal,2015,36(9):158-161.
[14]王小红,许小靓,王立志.基于多试验信息的可靠性综合评估方法[J].装备环境工程,2013,10(4):34-37.WANG Xiao-hong,XU Xiao-liang,WANG Li-zhi. Integrated Reliability Evalution Method Based on Multiple Test Information[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering,2013,10(4):34-37.
[15]宋贵宝,张峰伟.利用相似导弹信息的Bayes可靠性评估方法研究[J].舰船电子工程,2014,34(3):124-126.SONG Gui-bao,ZHANG Feng-wei. Bayes Method to Assessment the Reliability by Using Similar Missile’s Information[J]. Ship Electronic Engineering,2014,34(3):124-126.