基于AHP-PSR模型的西南丘陵地区农用地集约利用动态评价
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摘要
针对西南丘陵地区农用地利用效率低、耕地质量锐减、人地关系逐步恶化等问题构建了基于AHP-PSR模型的西南丘陵地区农用地集约利用评价系统。采用专家打分法进行指标筛选后,基于AHP-PSR模型进行农用地集约利用动态评价,对系统内部协调及稳定性进行分析、评估,较深入地研究农用地集约利用驱动因子,并采用最优子集选取策略分析集约利用驱动力,以避免仅以简单相关性就加入或剔除驱动力因素导致回归系数不符合实际内涵的现象。实验表明:可利用系统调整指标间权重,动态展示人地关系协调可持续发展关系,其分析结果可供有关部门决策参考。
AHP-PSR model was established for the farmland intensive use evaluation system in the southwest hilly area of China where is low efficiencies of farmland use,decreasing quality of cultivated land and the gradually deteriorating man-land relationship. Using the expert grading method to screen the indexes before the internal coordination and stability of the system were analyzed,evaluation which based on the AHP-PSR model intensive agricultural land use dynamic evaluation and more in-depth research in agricultural land intensive utilization of driving factor. In order to avoid the regression coefficient conflicting with actual connotation phenomenon caused by simple correlation joining or eliminating driving force factors,adopt the sub set selection strategy analysis of intensive utilization of driving force. The search in agricultural land intensive utilization of dynamic evaluation,internal coordination and driving factors,which results can guide the decision of management.
AHP-PSR model was established for the farmland intensive use evaluation system in the southwest hilly area of China where is low efficiencies of farmland use,decreasing quality of cultivated land and the gradually deteriorating man-land relationship. Using the expert grading method to screen the indexes before the internal coordination and stability of the system were analyzed,evaluation which based on the AHP-PSR model intensive agricultural land use dynamic evaluation and more in-depth research in agricultural land intensive utilization of driving factor. In order to avoid the regression coefficient conflicting with actual connotation phenomenon caused by simple correlation joining or eliminating driving force factors,adopt the sub set selection strategy analysis of intensive utilization of driving force. The search in agricultural land intensive utilization of dynamic evaluation,internal coordination and driving factors,which results can guide the decision of management.
引文
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[13]张乐勤,陈素平,陈保平,等.1996—2011年安徽省产业结构演进对城镇土地集约利用影响测度与分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(9):1117-1124.
[14]王秀圆,阎建忠.山区农户耕地利用集约度及其影响因素:以重庆市12个典型村为例[J].地理研究,2015,33(4):393-397.
[15] Maxi San Miguel,Jeffrey H Johnson,Janos Kertesz,et al.Challenges in Complex Systems Science[J]. EuropeanPhysical Journal-special Topics,2012,214(1):245-271.
[16]汪菲,杨德刚,王长建,等.农用地集约利用变化与经济增长的动态计量分析:以新疆拜城县为例[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(6):1 012-1 020.
[17]王家耀,谢明霞.地理国情与复杂系统[J].测绘学报,2016,45(1):1-8.
[2]陈浮,陈海燕.转变经济发展方式对土地集约利用影响机理研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.
[3]贺三维,潘鹏,诸云强,等.农用地集约利用评价的新模型研究[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):460-467.
[4]范辉,刘卫东,吴泽斌.城市土地集约利用内部协调性的时空演变:以武汉市中心城区为例[J].地理科学,2014,34(6):696-704.
[5]李广东,方创琳.中国县域国土空间集约利用计量测度与影响机理[J].地理学报,2014,69(12):1739-1752.
[6] L J Sonter,D J Barrett,C J Moran,et al.A Land SystemScience meta-analysis suggests we underestimate intensiveland uses in land use change dynamics[J].Journal of LandUse Science,2015,10(2):191-204.
[7] Eddie C M Hui,Yuzhe Wu,Lijun Deng,et al.Analysis oncoupling relationship of urban scale and intensive use ofland in china[J]. The International Journal of UrbanPolicy and Planning,2015,42(A):63-69.
[8] Chong Peng,Malin Song,Feng Han.Urban economic struc-ture,technological externalities,and intensive land use inchina[J].Journal of Cleaner Prroduction,2017,152(20):47-62.
[9]王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.
[10]陈彦光.简单、复杂和地理分布模型的选择[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3):321-329.
[11]刘晓群,闵素芹.实用回归分析(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.
[12]宋戈,郑浩.黑龙江省地级市土地集约利用评价及驱动力:以佳木斯市为例[J].经济地理,2008,28(2):297-307.
[13]张乐勤,陈素平,陈保平,等.1996—2011年安徽省产业结构演进对城镇土地集约利用影响测度与分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(9):1117-1124.
[14]王秀圆,阎建忠.山区农户耕地利用集约度及其影响因素:以重庆市12个典型村为例[J].地理研究,2015,33(4):393-397.
[15] Maxi San Miguel,Jeffrey H Johnson,Janos Kertesz,et al.Challenges in Complex Systems Science[J]. EuropeanPhysical Journal-special Topics,2012,214(1):245-271.
[16]汪菲,杨德刚,王长建,等.农用地集约利用变化与经济增长的动态计量分析:以新疆拜城县为例[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(6):1 012-1 020.
[17]王家耀,谢明霞.地理国情与复杂系统[J].测绘学报,2016,45(1):1-8.