基于PVAR模型和VAR模型的工业用水与工业经济增长关系研究
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摘要
量化工业用水与工业经济增长之间的互动关系,对工业节水具有重要意义。以1998—2015年为考察期,采用PVAR模型和VAR模型分别研究我国东部地区整体以及各省份工业用水与工业经济增长的互动关系。PVAR模型结果表明:工业用水与工业经济增长存在长期协整关系,工业用水的滞后一期对工业经济增长有显著的正向影响,工业用水对工业经济增长扰动的响应经历先上升后下降的倒"U"过程,而水资源却逐渐制约工业经济增长,工业用水的波动主要来自自身且缓慢下降,工业经济增长受到工业用水的影响逐渐加强。VAR模型结果表明:上海市和福建省不能建立VAR模型,剩下的省份所建立的VAR模型、脉冲响应分析以及预测方差分解结果都存在较大的差异性,说明分省研究的必要性。需要将PVAR模型与VAR模型相结合,因地制宜制定具有差别化、针对性的水资源政策以提高工业用水效率,形成水资源利用与工业经济增长的良性循环。
Quantifying the relation between industrial water use and economic growth is of great significance to industrial water saving. Taking the period from 1998 to 2015 as the research one,the PVAR model and VAR model are employed to study the relation between industrial water use and economic growth of the whole region and various provinces and cities in the east areas of China. The results of PVAR model show that there is a long-term coordinated relation between industrial water use and economic growth. One-stage lagging of the industrial water use has great positive effect on the industrial economic growth. The response of industrial water use to disturbance of industrial economic growth exhibits an inverse U process,that is,it first increases and then decreases. The water resources gradually restrict the industrial economic growth. The fluctuation in the industrial water use is mainly resulted from itself and slowly decreases. The effect of industrial water use on the industrial economic growth is gradually strengthened. The results of VAR model indicate that the VAR model cannot be established in Shanghai City and Fujian Province,and the results of VAR model,pulse response analysis and variance decomposition in the other provinces and cities are greatly different,indicating the necessity of researches of VAR model for various provinces and cities. Therefore,the PVAR model and VAR model should be combined,and different and specific policies of water resources should be formulated according to the local situations so as to form the beneficial cycle between the utilization of water resources and industrial economic growth.
Quantifying the relation between industrial water use and economic growth is of great significance to industrial water saving. Taking the period from 1998 to 2015 as the research one,the PVAR model and VAR model are employed to study the relation between industrial water use and economic growth of the whole region and various provinces and cities in the east areas of China. The results of PVAR model show that there is a long-term coordinated relation between industrial water use and economic growth. One-stage lagging of the industrial water use has great positive effect on the industrial economic growth. The response of industrial water use to disturbance of industrial economic growth exhibits an inverse U process,that is,it first increases and then decreases. The water resources gradually restrict the industrial economic growth. The fluctuation in the industrial water use is mainly resulted from itself and slowly decreases. The effect of industrial water use on the industrial economic growth is gradually strengthened. The results of VAR model indicate that the VAR model cannot be established in Shanghai City and Fujian Province,and the results of VAR model,pulse response analysis and variance decomposition in the other provinces and cities are greatly different,indicating the necessity of researches of VAR model for various provinces and cities. Therefore,the PVAR model and VAR model should be combined,and different and specific policies of water resources should be formulated according to the local situations so as to form the beneficial cycle between the utilization of water resources and industrial economic growth.
引文
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[18]邓朝晖,刘洋,薛惠锋.基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境.2012,22(6):128-135.
[19]张兵兵,沈满洪.工业用水与工业经济增长、产业结构变化的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):9-14.
[20]雷玉桃,黎锐锋.中国工业用水影响因素的长期动态作用机理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):1-8.
[21]潘丹,应瑞瑶.中国水资源与农业经济增长关系研究:基于面板VAR模型[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):161-166.
[22]LOVE I,ZICCHINO L.Financial development and dynamic investment behavior:evidence from Panel VAR[J].The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(2):190-210.
[23]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[2]刘晓君,闫俐臻.基于数据包络模型的西部水资源利用效率及影响因素研究[J].水资源保护,2016,32(6):32-38.
[3]贾绍凤,张士锋,杨红,等.工业用水与经济发展的关系:用水库兹涅茨曲线[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(3):279-284.
[4]阿依古丽·艾科拜尔,束龙仓,鲁程鹏,等.城市工业用水总量核算方法探讨[J].水资源保护,2015,31(3):108-111.
[5]张陈俊,章恒全.新环境库兹涅次曲线:工业用水与经济增长的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):116-123.
[6]KATZ D.Water use and economic growth:reconsidering the environmental Kuznets Curve relationship[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,88:205-213.
[7]张兵兵,沈满洪.工业用水库兹涅茨曲线分析[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):102-109.
[8]张月,潘柏林,李锦斌,等.基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国工业用水与经济增长关系研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1117-1126.
[9]陈雯,王湘萍.我国工业行业的技术进步、结构变迁与水资源消耗:基于LMDI方法的实证分析[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2011,25(2):68-72.
[10]陈东景.中国工业水资源消耗强度变化的结构份额和效率份额研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3):211-214.
[11]刘翀,柏明国.安徽省工业行业用水消耗变化分析:基于LMDI分解法[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2299-2305.
[12]张陈俊,章恒全,张丽娜.基于多层次LMDI方法的中国水资源消耗变化分析[J].统计与决策,2016(3):98-103.
[13]姜蓓蕾,耿雷华,卞锦宇,等.中国工业用水效率水平驱动因素分析及区划研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2231-2239.
[14]贾绍凤.工业用水零增长的条件分析:发达国家的经验[J].地理科学进展,2001,20(1):51-59.
[15]贾绍凤,张士锋.中国的用水何时达到顶峰[J].水科学进展,2000,11(4):470-477.
[16]沈大军,王浩,杨小柳,等.工业用水的数量经济分析[J].水利学报,2000,(8):27-31.
[17]王浩,汪党献,倪红珍,等.中国工业发展对水资源的需求[J].水利学报,2004,(4):109-113.
[18]邓朝晖,刘洋,薛惠锋.基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境.2012,22(6):128-135.
[19]张兵兵,沈满洪.工业用水与工业经济增长、产业结构变化的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):9-14.
[20]雷玉桃,黎锐锋.中国工业用水影响因素的长期动态作用机理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):1-8.
[21]潘丹,应瑞瑶.中国水资源与农业经济增长关系研究:基于面板VAR模型[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):161-166.
[22]LOVE I,ZICCHINO L.Financial development and dynamic investment behavior:evidence from Panel VAR[J].The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(2):190-210.
[23]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.