RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究
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摘要
【目的】气候变化对农业生产的影响日趋明显。分析未来气候变化所产生的影响,模拟调整作物耕作和栽培措施,为有效减轻未来气候变化带来的负效应提供参考。【方法】根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次工作报告中未来可能的温室气体排放情况,以BCC_CSM模式模拟未来的气候变化情景,选取RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径情景,与作物模型CERES-Rice耦合,筛选出了未来气候变化条件下福建省各稻区可能的最佳品种和播期,并研究分析了品种更替和播期调整后的水稻单产、稳产性以及全省水稻总产的变化。【结果】在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,闽东南双季稻区早稻的模拟产量较未作适应性调整分别增加1.6%和1.9%,晚稻的模拟产量依次增加13.5%和9.8%;闽西北双季稻区早稻的模拟产量依次提高1.4%和1.0%,晚稻的模拟产量依次提高11.5%和7.9%;闽西北山地单季稻区一季稻的模拟产量分别增加14.1%和13.7%。在综合考虑两种适应性措施后,福建省各稻区总产也较当前明显提高,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,分别提高9.3%和10.5%。【结论】未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量有不利影响,可采取一定的适应性措施缓解负效应。
【Objective】The impact of climate change on agricultural production has become increasingly obvious, and some adaptive adjustments on crop cultivation can significantly reduce the negative effects of future climate change. 【Method】Based on the coupling of the BCC_CSM climate model and the crop model CERES-Rice, we selected the most adaptive rice varieties and the best sowing dates for each rice growing region in Fujian Province, China under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values +4.5, and +8.5 W/m~2, respectively), and then we assessed their changes in rice yield, yield stability and the overall output of rice.【Result】The simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments in the double cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increase by 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for late rice, by 13.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In double cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian, the simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 1.4% and 1.0% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for the late rice, by 11.5% and 7.9%. The simulated yields of single rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 14.1% and 13.7% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments. With adaptive adjustments, the overall output of rice in Fujian under the two climate change scenarios increased by 9.3% and 10.5%. 【Conclusion】Climate change had adverse effects on rice yield in Fujian, and some adaptive adjustments could be taken to alleviate the negative impact.
【Objective】The impact of climate change on agricultural production has become increasingly obvious, and some adaptive adjustments on crop cultivation can significantly reduce the negative effects of future climate change. 【Method】Based on the coupling of the BCC_CSM climate model and the crop model CERES-Rice, we selected the most adaptive rice varieties and the best sowing dates for each rice growing region in Fujian Province, China under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values +4.5, and +8.5 W/m~2, respectively), and then we assessed their changes in rice yield, yield stability and the overall output of rice.【Result】The simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments in the double cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increase by 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for late rice, by 13.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In double cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian, the simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 1.4% and 1.0% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for the late rice, by 11.5% and 7.9%. The simulated yields of single rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 14.1% and 13.7% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments. With adaptive adjustments, the overall output of rice in Fujian under the two climate change scenarios increased by 9.3% and 10.5%. 【Conclusion】Climate change had adverse effects on rice yield in Fujian, and some adaptive adjustments could be taken to alleviate the negative impact.
引文
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[26]Long S P,Ainsworth E A,Leakey A D B,Nosberger J,Ort D R.Food for thought:lower-than-expected crop yield simulation with rising CO2 concentrations.Science,2006,312:1918-1921.
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[28]郭尔静,杨晓光,王晓煜,张天一,黄晚华,刘子琪,Tao L.湖南省双季稻产量差时空分布特征.中国农业科学,2017,50(2):399-412.Guo E J,Yang X G,Wang X Y,Zhang T Y,Liu Z Q,Tao L.Spatial-temporal distribution of double cropping rice’s yield gap in Hunan Province.Sci Agric Sin,2017,50(2):399-412.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[2]Rosenzweig C,Elliott J,Deryng D,Ruane A C,Muller C,Arneth A,Boote K J,Folberth C,Glotter M,Khabarov N,Neumann K,Piontek F,Thomas A M,Schmid E,Stehfest E,Yang H,Jones J W.Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2014,111(9):3268-3273.
[3]张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,何勇.未来气候变化情景下中国主要粮食作物产量变化模拟.干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(5):208-213.Zhang J P,Zhao Y X,Wang C Y,He Y.Simulation of the yields change of China'main crops under climate change scenario.Agric Res Arid Areas,2007,25(5):208-213.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4]杨沈斌,申双和,赵小艳,赵艳霞,许吟隆,王主玉,刘娟,张玮玮.气候变化对长江中下游稻区水稻产量的影响.作物学报,2010,36(9):1519-1528.Yang S B,Shen S H,Zhao X Y,Zhao Y X,Xu Y L,Wang Z Y,Liu J,Zhang W W.Impacts of climate changes on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Acta Agron Sin,2010,36(9):1519-1528.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]Chun J A,Li S,Wang Q,Lee W S,Lee E J.Assessing rice productivity and adaptation strategies for Southeast Asia under climate change though multi-scale crop modeling.Agric Syst,2016,143:14-21.
[6]周曙东,周文魁,朱红根,王传星,王艳.气候变化对农业的影响及应对措施.南京农业大学学报:社会科学版,2010,10(1):34-39.Zhou S D,Zhou W K,Zhu H G,Wang C X,Wang Y.Impact of climate change on agriculture and its countermeasures.J Nanjing Agric Univ:Soci Sci Ed,2010,10(1):34-39.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响:Ⅰ.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量的可能影响分析.中国农业科学,2010,43(2):329-336.Yang X G,Liu Z J,Chen F.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China:Ⅰ.The possible effects of climatic warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China.Sci Agric Sin,2010,43(2):329-336.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]肖风劲,张海东,王春乙.气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策.自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):327-331.Xiao F J,Zhang H D,Wang C Y.Impact of climatic change on agriculture and its adaptation countermeasures in China.J Nat Disas,2006,15(6):327-331.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]孙白妮,门艳忠,姚凤梅.气候变化对农业影响评价方法研究进展.环境科学与管理,2007,32(6):165-168.Sun B N,Men Y Z,Yao F M.Advancement of study on assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture.Environ Sci Manag,2007,32(6):165-168.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]房世波,沈斌,谭凯炎,高西宁.大气CO2和温度升高对农作物生理及生产的影响.中国生态农业学报,2010,15(5):1116-1124.Fang S B,Shen B,Tan K Y,Gao X N.Effect of elevated CO2 concentration and increased temperature on physiology and production of crops.Chin J Eco-Agric,2010,15(5):1116-1124.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]秦鹏程,姚凤梅,曹秀霞,张佳华,曹倩.利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业影响的发展过程.中国农业气象,2011,32(2):240-245.Qin P C,Yao F M,Cao X X,Zhang J H,Cao Q.Development process of modeling impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity based on crop models.Chin J Agrometeorol,2011,32(2):240-245.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]石春林,冯慧慧,金之庆,王华.水稻发育期模型的比较.中国水稻科学,2010,24(3):303-308.Shi C L,Feng H H,Jin Z Q,Wang H.Comparison of phasic development models in rice.Chin J Rice Sci,2010,24(3):303-308.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]姚凤梅,秦鹏程,张佳华,林而达,Boken V.基于模型模拟气候变化对农业影响评估的不确定性及处理方法.科学通报,2011,56(8):547-555.Yao F M,Qin P C,Zhang J H,Lin E D,Boken V.Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods.Chin Sci Bull,2011,56(8):547-555.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]江敏,金之庆.CERES-Rice模型区域应用中遗传参数升尺度的一种方法.中国水稻科学,2009,23(2):172-178.Jiang M,Jin Z Q.A method to upscale the genetic parameters of CERES-Rice in regional applications.Chin J Rice Sci,2009,23(2):172-178.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]叶宏宝,石晓燕,李东,华珊,徐志福.气候变化对浙江水稻生产影响的集合模拟分析.浙江农业学报,2016,28(7):1183-1192.Ye H B,Shi X Y,Li D,Hua S,Xu Z F.Ensemble simulation of impacts of climate change on rice production in Zhejiang Province.Acta Agric Zhejiang,2016,28(7):1183-1192.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]熊伟,林而达,蒋金荷,李岩,许吟隆.中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析.地理学报,2010,65(4):397-406.Xiong W,Lin E D,Jiang J H,Li Y,Xu Y L.An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China’s future grain production.Acta Geol Sin,2010,65(4):397-406.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]Osbome T M,Lawrence D M,Challinor A J,Slingo J M,Wheeler T R.Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model.Global Change Biol,2007,13(1):169-183.
[18]马锐,江敏,薛昌颖,孙彬,周桐宇.基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的相应.中国水稻科学,2016,30(4):417-430.Ma R,Jiang M,Xue C Y,Sun B,Zhou T Y.Response of rice to future climate change based on adaptive adjustment in southern Henan Province,Chin J Rice Sci,2016,30(4):417-430.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]王连喜,刘静,李琪,钱蕊.气候变化对宁夏水稻的影响及适应性研究.地球科学进展,2013,28(11):1248-1256.Wang L X,Liu J,Li Q,Qian R.Simulation study of the climate change impact on the rice and its adaptability in Ningxia.Adv Earth Sci,2013,28(11):1248-1256.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,Manning M R,Rose S K.The next generation of scenarios for climate research and assessment.Nature,2010,463:747-756.
[21]Hoogenboom G,Jones J W,Wilkens P W,Porter C Q,Boote K,Hunt L D,Singh U.Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer(DSSAT)Version 4.6.Washington:DSSAT Foundation,Prosser,2014.
[22]Jones J W,Hoogenboom G,Porter C H,Boote K J,Batchelor W D.DSSAT Cropping System Model.Eur JAgron,2003,18(3/4):235-265.
[23]Ritchie J T,Alocilja E C,Uehara G.IBSNAT/CERES-Rice model.Agrotechnol Transfer,1986,3:1-5.
[24]He J Q,Jones J W,Graham W D,et al.Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method.Agric Syst,2010,103(5):256-264.
[25]孙睿,梁璐,杨玲.基于气象站资料的中国地区太阳日辐射量算法研究.气象与环境科学,2007,30(1):24-27.Sun R,Liang L,Yang L.Estimation of daily solar radiation in China based on weather station data.Meteorol Environ Sci,2007,30(1):24-27.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]Long S P,Ainsworth E A,Leakey A D B,Nosberger J,Ort D R.Food for thought:lower-than-expected crop yield simulation with rising CO2 concentrations.Science,2006,312:1918-1921.
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