北京市昌平区温度热效应对非意外死亡及寿命损失年影响的研究
|
摘要
目的研究温度热效应对人群非意外死亡及寿命损失年的影响。方法收集2014—2017年昌平区全人群死亡个案数据、气象数据及环保数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)拟合逐日平均气温与逐日死亡数及逐日YLL的关系,定量估计热效应对死亡率及寿命损失年的累积滞后效应。结果热效应的影响急促而短暂,持续4 d。热效应在累积滞后4 d时,温度每升高1℃,人群非意外死亡的累计超额死亡率为0. 030%(0. 011%, 0. 049%),男性和女性分别为0. 020%(-0. 005%, 0. 046%),0. 044%(0. 014%,0. 073%);(0～65)岁年龄组和65岁以上年龄组分别为0. 038%(0. 002%,0. 075%)和0. 028%(0. 005%,0. 050%),人群非意外死亡寿命损失年为5. 38(1. 76,9. 00)年,男性为2. 00(-0. 79,4. 79)年,女性为3. 04(0. 67,5. 40)年,(0～65)岁组为3. 97(0. 76,7. 18)年,65岁以上组为1. 01(-0. 58,2. 60)年。结论热效应使非意外死亡率和寿命损失年增加,女性及65岁以下人群的增加幅度大于男性和65岁以上人群。采用预警措施,保护易感人群十分必要。
Objectives To quantify the impact of thermal effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost. Methods Data of daily death,meteorology and air pollution in Changping District from 2014 to2017 were collected. The relationship between daily average temperature and daily mortality and years of life lost( YLL) was fitted by distributed lag non-linear model( DLNM). The cumulative excess mortality rate and years of life lost of heat were examined using a distributed lag non-linear model. Results The thermal effect was immediate,lasting for 4 days. Heat-related cumulative excess mortality rate of non-accidental mortality was 0. 030%( 0. 011%,0. 049%) per 1℃ increase of temperature across lag 0 ～ 4 days,0. 020%(-0. 005%,0. 046%) for male and 0. 044%( 0. 014%,0. 073%) for female,0. 038%( 0. 002%,0. 075%) for people under 65 years old and 0. 028%( 0. 005%,0. 050%) for over 65 years old,respectively. Heat-related years of life lost were 5. 38( 1. 76,9. 00) for all,2. 00(-0. 79,4. 79) for men,3. 04( 0. 67,5. 40) for women,3. 97( 0. 76,7. 18) for people under 65 years old group,and 1. 01(-0. 58,2. 60) for people over 65 years old group. Conclusions The non-accidental mortality rate and life loss year were increased by heat,and the increase were more obvious for female and the people under 65 years. It is necessary to adopt early warning measures to protect susceptible populations.
Objectives To quantify the impact of thermal effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost. Methods Data of daily death,meteorology and air pollution in Changping District from 2014 to2017 were collected. The relationship between daily average temperature and daily mortality and years of life lost( YLL) was fitted by distributed lag non-linear model( DLNM). The cumulative excess mortality rate and years of life lost of heat were examined using a distributed lag non-linear model. Results The thermal effect was immediate,lasting for 4 days. Heat-related cumulative excess mortality rate of non-accidental mortality was 0. 030%( 0. 011%,0. 049%) per 1℃ increase of temperature across lag 0 ～ 4 days,0. 020%(-0. 005%,0. 046%) for male and 0. 044%( 0. 014%,0. 073%) for female,0. 038%( 0. 002%,0. 075%) for people under 65 years old and 0. 028%( 0. 005%,0. 050%) for over 65 years old,respectively. Heat-related years of life lost were 5. 38( 1. 76,9. 00) for all,2. 00(-0. 79,4. 79) for men,3. 04( 0. 67,5. 40) for women,3. 97( 0. 76,7. 18) for people under 65 years old group,and 1. 01(-0. 58,2. 60) for people over 65 years old group. Conclusions The non-accidental mortality rate and life loss year were increased by heat,and the increase were more obvious for female and the people under 65 years. It is necessary to adopt early warning measures to protect susceptible populations.
引文
[1]Allen SK,Plattner GK,Nauels A,et al.Climate Change 2013:The physical science basis.An overview of the working group 1contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Vienna,Austria:IPCC,2014.
[2]Christidis N,Jones GS,Stott P A.Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave[J].Nat Clim Change,2015,5(1):46-50.
[3]Gasparrini A,Guo YM,Hashizume M,et al.Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature:a multicountry observational study[J].Lancet,2015,386(9991):369-375.
[4]马文娟.温度对我国16城市居民死亡影响的研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2014.(In English:Ma WJ.A Study on Temperature-Related Mortality in 16 Chinese Cities[D].Shanghai:Fudan University,2014.)
[5]郭亚菲,李湉湉,程艳丽,等.气候变化背景下上海市温度热效应死亡风险预估[J].中华预防医学杂志,2012,46(11):1025-1029.(In English:Guo YF,Li TT,Cheng YL,et al.Projection of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai[J].Chin J Prev Med,2012,46(11):1025-1029.)
[6]刘涛,肖建鹏,曾韦霖,等.广州市气候变化热效应对居民寿命损失年影响的研究[J].环境卫生学杂志,2018,8(5):393-398.(In English:Liu T,Xiao JP,Zeng WL,et al.Investigation on the heat effect of climate change on years of life lost in Guangzhou[J].J Environ Hyg,2018,8(5):393-398.)
[7]World Health Organization.Life tables for WHO member states.[EB/OL].(2018-04-20).[2018-09-01].http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.LIFECOUNTRY?lang=en.
[8]杨军,欧春泉,丁研,等.广州市逐日死亡人数与气温关系的时间序列研究[J].环境与健康杂志,2012,29(2):136-138.(In English:Yang J,Ou CQ,Ding Y.Association between daily temperature and mortality in Guangzhou:A time-series study[J].J Environ Health,2012,29(2):136-138.)
[9]李静,罗书全,丁贤彬,等.重庆市逐日温度对人群死亡及寿命损失年影响的研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(3):375-380.(In English:Li J,Luo SQ,Ding XB,et al.Influence of daily ambient temperature on mortality and years of life lost in Chongqing[J].Chin J Epidemiol,2016,37(3):375-380.)
[10]Yang J,Yin P,Zhou MG,et al.The effect of ambient temperature on diabetes mortality in China:A multi-city time series study[J].Sci Total Environ,2016,543:75-82.
[11]Basu R.High ambient temperature and mortality:a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008[J].Environ Health,2009,8:40.
[12]李萌萌,周脉耕,张霞,等.济南市4个区气温对非意外死亡及死因别死亡的影响[J].中华流行病学杂志,2014,35(6):684-688.(In English:Li MM,Zhou MG,Zhang X,et al.Impact of temperature on non-accidental deaths and cause-specific mortality in four districts of Jinan[J].Chin J Epidemiol,2014,35(6):684-688.)
[13]Huang CR,Barnett AG,Wang XM,et al.The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane,Australia[J].Nat Clim Change,2012,2(4):265-270.
[14]Yang J,Ou CQ,Guo YM,et al.The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou,China[J].Sci Rep,2015,5:12250.
[15]Ishigami A,Hajat S,Kovats RS,et al.An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities[J].Environ Health,2008,7:5.
[16]Wang HD,Dwyer-Lindgren L,Lofgren K,et al.Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries,1970-2010:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J].Lancet,2013,380(9859):2071-2094.
[17]Zhang Y,Yu C,Peng M,et al.The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost:A multi-community analysis in Hubei,China[J].Sci Total Environ,2017,621:1491-1498.
[18]Hajat S,Kovats RS,Lachowycz K.Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales:who is at risk?[J].Occup Environ Med,2007,64(2):93-100.
[19]Xu ZW,Etzel RA,Su H,et al.Impact of ambient temperature on children's health:a systematic review[J].Environ Res,2012,117:120-131.
[20]胡学军,赵玉华,杨丽辉,等.拉萨市区部分藏族老年人群健康状况调查[J].中华老年医学杂志,2003,22(7):434-435.
[21]Huang ZJ,Lin HL,Liu YN,et al.Individual-level and community-level effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality relationship in 66 Chinese communities[J].BMJ Open,2015,5(9):e009172.
[22]Zhou MG,Wang LJ,Liu T,et al.Health impact of the 2008cold spell on mortality in subtropical China:the climate and health impact national assessment study(CHINAs)[J].Environ Health,2014,13:60.
[23]Lim YH,Park AK,Kim H.Modifiers of diurnal temperature range and mortality association in six Korean cities[J].Int J Biometeorol,2012,56(1):33-42.
[24]Yang J,Zhou MG,Li MM,et al.Diurnal temperature range in relation to death from stroke in China[J].Environ Res,2018,164:669-675.
[25]Yang J,Liu HZ,Ou CQ,et al.Global climate change:Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou,China[J].Environ Pollut,2013,175:131-136.
[2]Christidis N,Jones GS,Stott P A.Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave[J].Nat Clim Change,2015,5(1):46-50.
[3]Gasparrini A,Guo YM,Hashizume M,et al.Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature:a multicountry observational study[J].Lancet,2015,386(9991):369-375.
[4]马文娟.温度对我国16城市居民死亡影响的研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2014.(In English:Ma WJ.A Study on Temperature-Related Mortality in 16 Chinese Cities[D].Shanghai:Fudan University,2014.)
[5]郭亚菲,李湉湉,程艳丽,等.气候变化背景下上海市温度热效应死亡风险预估[J].中华预防医学杂志,2012,46(11):1025-1029.(In English:Guo YF,Li TT,Cheng YL,et al.Projection of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai[J].Chin J Prev Med,2012,46(11):1025-1029.)
[6]刘涛,肖建鹏,曾韦霖,等.广州市气候变化热效应对居民寿命损失年影响的研究[J].环境卫生学杂志,2018,8(5):393-398.(In English:Liu T,Xiao JP,Zeng WL,et al.Investigation on the heat effect of climate change on years of life lost in Guangzhou[J].J Environ Hyg,2018,8(5):393-398.)
[7]World Health Organization.Life tables for WHO member states.[EB/OL].(2018-04-20).[2018-09-01].http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.LIFECOUNTRY?lang=en.
[8]杨军,欧春泉,丁研,等.广州市逐日死亡人数与气温关系的时间序列研究[J].环境与健康杂志,2012,29(2):136-138.(In English:Yang J,Ou CQ,Ding Y.Association between daily temperature and mortality in Guangzhou:A time-series study[J].J Environ Health,2012,29(2):136-138.)
[9]李静,罗书全,丁贤彬,等.重庆市逐日温度对人群死亡及寿命损失年影响的研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(3):375-380.(In English:Li J,Luo SQ,Ding XB,et al.Influence of daily ambient temperature on mortality and years of life lost in Chongqing[J].Chin J Epidemiol,2016,37(3):375-380.)
[10]Yang J,Yin P,Zhou MG,et al.The effect of ambient temperature on diabetes mortality in China:A multi-city time series study[J].Sci Total Environ,2016,543:75-82.
[11]Basu R.High ambient temperature and mortality:a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008[J].Environ Health,2009,8:40.
[12]李萌萌,周脉耕,张霞,等.济南市4个区气温对非意外死亡及死因别死亡的影响[J].中华流行病学杂志,2014,35(6):684-688.(In English:Li MM,Zhou MG,Zhang X,et al.Impact of temperature on non-accidental deaths and cause-specific mortality in four districts of Jinan[J].Chin J Epidemiol,2014,35(6):684-688.)
[13]Huang CR,Barnett AG,Wang XM,et al.The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane,Australia[J].Nat Clim Change,2012,2(4):265-270.
[14]Yang J,Ou CQ,Guo YM,et al.The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou,China[J].Sci Rep,2015,5:12250.
[15]Ishigami A,Hajat S,Kovats RS,et al.An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities[J].Environ Health,2008,7:5.
[16]Wang HD,Dwyer-Lindgren L,Lofgren K,et al.Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries,1970-2010:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J].Lancet,2013,380(9859):2071-2094.
[17]Zhang Y,Yu C,Peng M,et al.The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost:A multi-community analysis in Hubei,China[J].Sci Total Environ,2017,621:1491-1498.
[18]Hajat S,Kovats RS,Lachowycz K.Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales:who is at risk?[J].Occup Environ Med,2007,64(2):93-100.
[19]Xu ZW,Etzel RA,Su H,et al.Impact of ambient temperature on children's health:a systematic review[J].Environ Res,2012,117:120-131.
[20]胡学军,赵玉华,杨丽辉,等.拉萨市区部分藏族老年人群健康状况调查[J].中华老年医学杂志,2003,22(7):434-435.
[21]Huang ZJ,Lin HL,Liu YN,et al.Individual-level and community-level effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality relationship in 66 Chinese communities[J].BMJ Open,2015,5(9):e009172.
[22]Zhou MG,Wang LJ,Liu T,et al.Health impact of the 2008cold spell on mortality in subtropical China:the climate and health impact national assessment study(CHINAs)[J].Environ Health,2014,13:60.
[23]Lim YH,Park AK,Kim H.Modifiers of diurnal temperature range and mortality association in six Korean cities[J].Int J Biometeorol,2012,56(1):33-42.
[24]Yang J,Zhou MG,Li MM,et al.Diurnal temperature range in relation to death from stroke in China[J].Environ Res,2018,164:669-675.
[25]Yang J,Liu HZ,Ou CQ,et al.Global climate change:Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou,China[J].Environ Pollut,2013,175:131-136.