自媒体环境下医患舆情S型曲线演化模型研究
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摘要
以"生命周期理论"和"逻辑斯谛方程"为基本理论依据,构建医患关系网络舆情S型曲线演化模型;以"陕西榆林产妇坠亡案"为议题,借助SPSS序列2次编程法进行S型曲线拟合.分析不同时间段医患舆情热值的变化趋势,提出医患关系演化的4个阶段及其特征.最后从涉事方、政府和舆情演化阶段3个视角提出建议,为进一步研究医患关系及医患舆情预警提供支撑.
Based on the Life Cycle Theory and Logistic Equation,constructs an S-curve evolution model of internet public opinion about doctor-patient relationship. Based on the case of maternal death in Yulin County,Shanxi Province,uses Secondary Programming method of SPSS to fit S-curve. Analyzing the tendency of change of doctor-patient public opinion heat value at the different periods,puts forward the four stages and their characteristics to the doctorpatient relationship evolution. Finally,recommends respectively from three perspective of from the parties involved,the government and the public opinion evolution stage to provide support for further research on doctor-patient relationship and early warning of doctor-patient public opinion.
Based on the Life Cycle Theory and Logistic Equation,constructs an S-curve evolution model of internet public opinion about doctor-patient relationship. Based on the case of maternal death in Yulin County,Shanxi Province,uses Secondary Programming method of SPSS to fit S-curve. Analyzing the tendency of change of doctor-patient public opinion heat value at the different periods,puts forward the four stages and their characteristics to the doctorpatient relationship evolution. Finally,recommends respectively from three perspective of from the parties involved,the government and the public opinion evolution stage to provide support for further research on doctor-patient relationship and early warning of doctor-patient public opinion.
引文
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[7]朱恒民,李青.面向话题衍生性的微博网络舆情传播模型研究[J].现代图书情报技术,2012,28(5):60.
[8]孙玲芳,周加波,林伟健,等.基于BP神经网络和遗传算法的网络舆情危机预警研究[J].情报杂志,2014,33(11):18-24.
[9]陈福集,陈婷.基于SEIRS传播模型的网络舆情衍生效应研究[J].情报杂志,2014,33(2):108-109.
[10]杜智涛,谢新洲.利用灰色预测与模式识别方法构建网络舆情预测与预警模型[J].图书情报工作,2013,57(15):27-28.
[11]黄远,沈乾,刘怡君.微博舆论场:突发事件舆情演化分析的新视角[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2564-2565.
[12]任立肖,张亮,杜子平,等.复杂网络上的网络舆情演化模型研究述评[J].情报科学,2014,32(8):148.
[13]张敏,刘晓彤,夏宇.重大医患纠纷事件网络舆情观点异化过程分析:以“8.10湘潭孕妇死亡事件”为例[J].情报杂志,2016,35(4):64-69.
[14]May R M.Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics[J].Nature,1976(261):459-467.
[15]谢科范,赵湜,陈刚,等.网络舆情突发事件的生命周期原理及集群决策研究[J].武汉理工大学学报:社会科学版,2010,23(4):482-486.
[16]罗良清,平卫英.统计学[M].北京:北京邮电大学出版社,2015:170.
[17]王根生.网络舆情群体极化动力模型与仿真分析[J].情报杂志,2012,31(3):21-22.