老龄化对房价的影响机制:基于中国的实证研究
|
摘要
随着我国逐渐步入深度老龄化社会,老龄化对房地产市场的影响将日益凸显.本研究系统分析了老龄化影响房地产价格的理论机制,识别与筛选出关键传导渠道,并基于我国31省市数据,采用面板模型及门限面板等计量模型进行验证.实证结果表明:老龄化对房价存在直接的负向影响,且在预期、人口规模、城镇化率、人均可支配收入促进房价增长的机制中存在负向调节作用;同时,经济发展及城镇化会在一定程度上缓解老龄化对房价的负向影响.老龄化对房价的负向影响是否胜过其他因素对房价的正向影响取决于我国目前所处的经济发展水平及城镇化水平.
As China gradually stepping into the ageing society, the impact of population ageing on the real estate market has become increasingly prominent. This paper constructed a theoretical mechanism of the impact of population ageing on the real estate price and accordingly identify key channels through which ageing affects real estate price. Then using the panel models and the threshold panel models, an empirical study is made to verify the proposed hypothesis based on the 31 provinces and cities' data in China. The empirical results show that population ageing has a negative impact on real estate price.Meanwhile population ageing has negative moderating effects in the positive impact of housing expectation,population increase, urbanization and per capita disposable income on the real estate price. Furthermore,the economic development and urbanization will weaken the negative impact of population ageing on real estate price. Whether the negative impact of population ageing outperforms the positive effects of other factors depends on the level of economic development and urbanization, as well as how much the Chinese households care about houses.
As China gradually stepping into the ageing society, the impact of population ageing on the real estate market has become increasingly prominent. This paper constructed a theoretical mechanism of the impact of population ageing on the real estate price and accordingly identify key channels through which ageing affects real estate price. Then using the panel models and the threshold panel models, an empirical study is made to verify the proposed hypothesis based on the 31 provinces and cities' data in China. The empirical results show that population ageing has a negative impact on real estate price.Meanwhile population ageing has negative moderating effects in the positive impact of housing expectation,population increase, urbanization and per capita disposable income on the real estate price. Furthermore,the economic development and urbanization will weaken the negative impact of population ageing on real estate price. Whether the negative impact of population ageing outperforms the positive effects of other factors depends on the level of economic development and urbanization, as well as how much the Chinese households care about houses.
引文
[1]邹瑾,于焘华,王大波.人口老龄化与房价的区域差异研究——基于面板协整模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2015(11):64-79.Zou J, Yu T H, Wang D B. Regional differences of demographic trends and house price:Empirical study based on panel cointegration model[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2015(11):64-79.
[2]朱琳琳,李秀婷,董纪昌.基于CGE的人口老龄化对我国城市住宅需求影响的研究[J].系统科学与数学,2016, 36(1):61-74.Zhu L L, Li X T, Dong J C. Research on the impact of aging on urban housing demand[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2016, 36(1):61-74.
[3]韦江,倪宣明,何艾琛.老龄化下人口政策与经济增长关系研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(2):337-350.Wei J, Ni X M, He A C. Study on the relationship between population policy and economic growth in the context of aging[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2018, 38(2):337-350.
[4]Choi C, Jung H. Does an economically active population matter in housing prices?[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2017, 24(15):1-4.
[5]Hiller N, Lerbs O W. Aging and urban house prices[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics, 2016, 60:276-291.
[6]李通屏,彭博,邵红梅.人口老龄化推高了中国房价吗?——基于省际动态面板数据的实证分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2017(5):105-115.Li T P, Peng B, Shao H M. Has the dramatic rising of housing prices been driven by population aging?—An empirical study based on dynamic panel data in China[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition), 2017(5):105-115.
[7]邹瑾.人口老龄化与房价波动——来自中国的经验证据[J].财经科学,2014(6):115-124.Zou J. Demographic trends and house price fluctuation—Evidence from China[J]. Finance&Economics, 2014(6):115-124.
[8]郭娜,吴敬.老龄化、城镇化与我国房地产价格研究——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析[J].当代经济科学,2015, 37(2):11-17.Guo N, Wu J. The research on ageing, urbanization and the prices of Chinese real estate—Based on the analysis of panel smooth transition regression model[J]. Modern Economic Science, 2015, 37(2):11-17.
[9]郭娜.人口老龄化对我国房地产价格影响研究[J].价格理论与实践,2016(5):93-96.Guo N. A research on effectiveness of ageing to real estate prices fluctuation[J]. Price:Theory&Practice, 2016(5):93-96.
[10]丁洋,郑江淮.中国人口老龄化会减少住房需求吗?[J].中国软科学,2018(2):68-77.Ding Y, Zheng J H. Will aging of population reduce housing demand?[J]. China Soft Science, 2018(2):68-77.
[11]Mankiw N G, Weil D N. The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics 1989, 19(2):235-258.
[12]Ermisch J. The demand for housing in Britain and population ageing:Microeconometric evidence[J]. Economica,1996, 63(251):383-404.
[13]Ohtake F, Shintani M. The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics, 1996, 26(2):189-201.
[14]Levin E, Montagnoli A, Wright R E. Demographic change and the housing market:Evidence from a comparison of Scotland and England[J]. Urban Studies, 2009, 46(1):27-43.
[15]Takats E. Aging and house prices[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2012, 21(2):131-141.
[16]Engelhardt G V, Poterba J M. House prices and demographic change:Canadian evidence[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics, 1991, 21(91):539-546.
[17]Chen Y, Gibb K, Leishman C, et al. The impact of population ageing on house prices:A micro-simulation approach[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2012, 59(5):523-542.
[18]史青青,费方域,朱微亮.人口红利与房地产收益率的无关性[J].经济学(季刊),2011, 10(1):271-290.Shi Q Q, Fei F Y, Zhu W L. Irrelevance of demographic dividends and real-estate equilibrium returns[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2011, 10(1):271-290.
[19]徐建炜,徐奇渊,何帆.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据[J].世界经济,2012(1):24-42.Xu J W, Xu Q Y, He F. Demographic factors behind rising housing prices:International experience and Chinese evidence[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2012(1):24-42.
[20]陈彦斌,陈小亮.人口老龄化对中国城镇住房需求的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013, 33(5):45-58.Chen Y B, Chen X L. The influence of population aging on China's urban housing demand[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2013, 33(5):45-58.
[21]邹瑾.人口老龄化与房价波动的地区差异[J].经济经纬,2017(1):94-99.Zou J. Heterogeneity influence of demographic trends on house prices[J]. Economic Survey, 2017(1):94-99.
[22]胡金星,顾娟.人口老龄化对房价影响的区域异质性研究——基于全国31个省份面板数据的实证分析[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017, 49(3):155-160.Hu J X, Gu J. On the Regional differences of the impact of population aging on housing prices:An empirical study based on panel data of 31 provinces in China[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences), 2017, 49(3):155-160.
[23]郭娜,胡佳琪.人口老龄化趋势、区域差异与房地产价格波动的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2018(5):92-95.
[24]Wang X R, Hui C M, Sun J X. Population migration, urbanization and housing prices:Evidence from the cities in China[J]. Habitat International, 2017, 66:49-56.
[25]Modigliani F. Life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations[J]. Science, 1986, 234(4777):704-712.
[26]Abramsson M, Andersson E. Changing preferences with ageing—Housing choices and housing plans of older people[J]. Housing Theory&Society, 2015(2):1-25.
[27]Brooks R. Asset-market effects of the baby boom and social-security reform[J]. American Economic Review,2002, 92(2):402-406.
[28]Abildgren K, Hansen N L, Kuchler A. Overoptimism and house price bubbles[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2018, 56:1-14.
[29]陈斌开,徐帆,谭力.人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999-2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究[J].金融研究,2012(1):129-140.Chen B K, Xu F, Tan L. Demographic transform and housing demand in China:1999-2005—Micro-empirical study based on census data[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2012(1):129-140.
[30]Li M, Shen K, Qiu J. Population aging and housing consumption:A nonlinear relationship in China[J]. China&World Economy, 2013, 21(5):60-77.
[31]Wang Z, Wang C, Zhang Q. Population ageing, urbanization and housing demand[J]. Journal of Service Science&Management, 2015, 8(4):516-525.
[32]Holtz-Eakin D, Newey W, Rosen H S. Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data[J]. Econometrica, 1988,56(6):1371-1395.
[33]李继玲.房价波动影响因素研究——基于2005-2015年数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9):30-37.
[34]邹至庄,牛霖琳.中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给[J].金融研究,2010(1):1-11.Zou Z Z, Niu L L. Demand and supply of housing for Chinese urban residents[J]. Journal of Financial Research,2010(1):1-11.
[35]Chen J, Guo F, Wu Y. One decade of urban housing reform in China:Urban housing price dynamics and the role of migration and urbanization, 1995-2005[J]. Habitat International, 2011, 35(1):1-8.
[36]孙伟增,郑思齐.居民对房价的预期如何影响房价变动[J].统计研究,2016,33(5):51-59.Sun W Z, Zheng S Q. How does residents'expected price affect housing price change?[J]. Statistical Research,2016, 33(5):51-59.
[37]郑海涛,郝军章,林黎,等.住房市场泡沫识别的超指数膨胀模型——以京沪各区县房价为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(3):585-593.Zheng H T, Hao J Z, Lin L, et al. Super-exponential expansion model about recognition of housing market bubble:In case of all districts in Beijing and Shanghai[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2018,38(3):585-593.
[2]朱琳琳,李秀婷,董纪昌.基于CGE的人口老龄化对我国城市住宅需求影响的研究[J].系统科学与数学,2016, 36(1):61-74.Zhu L L, Li X T, Dong J C. Research on the impact of aging on urban housing demand[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2016, 36(1):61-74.
[3]韦江,倪宣明,何艾琛.老龄化下人口政策与经济增长关系研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(2):337-350.Wei J, Ni X M, He A C. Study on the relationship between population policy and economic growth in the context of aging[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2018, 38(2):337-350.
[4]Choi C, Jung H. Does an economically active population matter in housing prices?[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2017, 24(15):1-4.
[5]Hiller N, Lerbs O W. Aging and urban house prices[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics, 2016, 60:276-291.
[6]李通屏,彭博,邵红梅.人口老龄化推高了中国房价吗?——基于省际动态面板数据的实证分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2017(5):105-115.Li T P, Peng B, Shao H M. Has the dramatic rising of housing prices been driven by population aging?—An empirical study based on dynamic panel data in China[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition), 2017(5):105-115.
[7]邹瑾.人口老龄化与房价波动——来自中国的经验证据[J].财经科学,2014(6):115-124.Zou J. Demographic trends and house price fluctuation—Evidence from China[J]. Finance&Economics, 2014(6):115-124.
[8]郭娜,吴敬.老龄化、城镇化与我国房地产价格研究——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析[J].当代经济科学,2015, 37(2):11-17.Guo N, Wu J. The research on ageing, urbanization and the prices of Chinese real estate—Based on the analysis of panel smooth transition regression model[J]. Modern Economic Science, 2015, 37(2):11-17.
[9]郭娜.人口老龄化对我国房地产价格影响研究[J].价格理论与实践,2016(5):93-96.Guo N. A research on effectiveness of ageing to real estate prices fluctuation[J]. Price:Theory&Practice, 2016(5):93-96.
[10]丁洋,郑江淮.中国人口老龄化会减少住房需求吗?[J].中国软科学,2018(2):68-77.Ding Y, Zheng J H. Will aging of population reduce housing demand?[J]. China Soft Science, 2018(2):68-77.
[11]Mankiw N G, Weil D N. The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics 1989, 19(2):235-258.
[12]Ermisch J. The demand for housing in Britain and population ageing:Microeconometric evidence[J]. Economica,1996, 63(251):383-404.
[13]Ohtake F, Shintani M. The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics, 1996, 26(2):189-201.
[14]Levin E, Montagnoli A, Wright R E. Demographic change and the housing market:Evidence from a comparison of Scotland and England[J]. Urban Studies, 2009, 46(1):27-43.
[15]Takats E. Aging and house prices[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2012, 21(2):131-141.
[16]Engelhardt G V, Poterba J M. House prices and demographic change:Canadian evidence[J]. Regional Science&Urban Economics, 1991, 21(91):539-546.
[17]Chen Y, Gibb K, Leishman C, et al. The impact of population ageing on house prices:A micro-simulation approach[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2012, 59(5):523-542.
[18]史青青,费方域,朱微亮.人口红利与房地产收益率的无关性[J].经济学(季刊),2011, 10(1):271-290.Shi Q Q, Fei F Y, Zhu W L. Irrelevance of demographic dividends and real-estate equilibrium returns[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2011, 10(1):271-290.
[19]徐建炜,徐奇渊,何帆.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据[J].世界经济,2012(1):24-42.Xu J W, Xu Q Y, He F. Demographic factors behind rising housing prices:International experience and Chinese evidence[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2012(1):24-42.
[20]陈彦斌,陈小亮.人口老龄化对中国城镇住房需求的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013, 33(5):45-58.Chen Y B, Chen X L. The influence of population aging on China's urban housing demand[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2013, 33(5):45-58.
[21]邹瑾.人口老龄化与房价波动的地区差异[J].经济经纬,2017(1):94-99.Zou J. Heterogeneity influence of demographic trends on house prices[J]. Economic Survey, 2017(1):94-99.
[22]胡金星,顾娟.人口老龄化对房价影响的区域异质性研究——基于全国31个省份面板数据的实证分析[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017, 49(3):155-160.Hu J X, Gu J. On the Regional differences of the impact of population aging on housing prices:An empirical study based on panel data of 31 provinces in China[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences), 2017, 49(3):155-160.
[23]郭娜,胡佳琪.人口老龄化趋势、区域差异与房地产价格波动的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2018(5):92-95.
[24]Wang X R, Hui C M, Sun J X. Population migration, urbanization and housing prices:Evidence from the cities in China[J]. Habitat International, 2017, 66:49-56.
[25]Modigliani F. Life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations[J]. Science, 1986, 234(4777):704-712.
[26]Abramsson M, Andersson E. Changing preferences with ageing—Housing choices and housing plans of older people[J]. Housing Theory&Society, 2015(2):1-25.
[27]Brooks R. Asset-market effects of the baby boom and social-security reform[J]. American Economic Review,2002, 92(2):402-406.
[28]Abildgren K, Hansen N L, Kuchler A. Overoptimism and house price bubbles[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2018, 56:1-14.
[29]陈斌开,徐帆,谭力.人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999-2025——基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究[J].金融研究,2012(1):129-140.Chen B K, Xu F, Tan L. Demographic transform and housing demand in China:1999-2005—Micro-empirical study based on census data[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2012(1):129-140.
[30]Li M, Shen K, Qiu J. Population aging and housing consumption:A nonlinear relationship in China[J]. China&World Economy, 2013, 21(5):60-77.
[31]Wang Z, Wang C, Zhang Q. Population ageing, urbanization and housing demand[J]. Journal of Service Science&Management, 2015, 8(4):516-525.
[32]Holtz-Eakin D, Newey W, Rosen H S. Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data[J]. Econometrica, 1988,56(6):1371-1395.
[33]李继玲.房价波动影响因素研究——基于2005-2015年数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9):30-37.
[34]邹至庄,牛霖琳.中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给[J].金融研究,2010(1):1-11.Zou Z Z, Niu L L. Demand and supply of housing for Chinese urban residents[J]. Journal of Financial Research,2010(1):1-11.
[35]Chen J, Guo F, Wu Y. One decade of urban housing reform in China:Urban housing price dynamics and the role of migration and urbanization, 1995-2005[J]. Habitat International, 2011, 35(1):1-8.
[36]孙伟增,郑思齐.居民对房价的预期如何影响房价变动[J].统计研究,2016,33(5):51-59.Sun W Z, Zheng S Q. How does residents'expected price affect housing price change?[J]. Statistical Research,2016, 33(5):51-59.
[37]郑海涛,郝军章,林黎,等.住房市场泡沫识别的超指数膨胀模型——以京沪各区县房价为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(3):585-593.Zheng H T, Hao J Z, Lin L, et al. Super-exponential expansion model about recognition of housing market bubble:In case of all districts in Beijing and Shanghai[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2018,38(3):585-593.