Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall
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摘要
The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements.
The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements.
The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements.
引文
Adler,R.,and Coauthors,2016:The new version 2.3 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)monthly analysis product.University of Maryland.[Available online from http://eagle1.umd.edu/GPCP ICDR/GPCP Monthly.html]
Adler,R.F.,and Coauthors,2003:The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-Present).Journal of Hydrometeorology,4,1147-1167,https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
Best,M.J.,and Coauthors,2011:The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator(JULES),model description-Part 1:Energy and water fluxes.Geoscientific Model Development,4,677-699,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011.
Bett,P.E.,and Coauthors,2017:Skill and reliability of seasonal forecasts for the Chinese energy sector.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,56,3099-3114,https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-17-0070.1.
Clark,R.T.,P.E.Bett,H.E.Thornton,and A.A.Scaife,2017:Skillful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry.Environmental Research Letters,12,024002,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa57ab.
Eade,R.,D.Smith,A.Scaife,E.Wallace,N.Dunstone,L.Hermanson,and N.Robinson,2014:Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?Geophys.Res.Lett.,41,5620-5628,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061146.
Golding,N.,C.Hewitt,P.Q.Zhang,P.Bett,X.Y.Fang,H.Z.Hu,and S.Nobert,2017:Improving user engagement and uptake of climate services in China.Climate Services,5,39-45,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.03.004.
Hardiman,S.,and Coauthors,2017:The asymmetric response of Yangtze River basin summer rainfall to El Nino/La Nina.Environmental Research Letters,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa172.(in press)
He,J.H.,and B.Q.Liu,2016:The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon:Recent progress.Journal of Meteorological Research,30,135-155,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-5222-z.
Hunke,E.C.,and W.H.Lipscomb,2010:CICE:The Los Alamos Sea Ice model documentation and software user’s manual,version 4.1.Report LA-CC-06-012,Los Alamos National Laboratory.[Available online from http://oceans11.lanl.gov/trac/CICE]
Jiao,M.Y.,and Coauthors,2013:Addressing the potential climate effects of China’s Three Gorges Project.WMO Bulletin,62(Special Issue),49-53.[Available online from http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=bulletin display&id=2738]
Ke,Z.J.,P.Q.Zhang,L.J.Chen,and L.M.Du,2011:An experiment of a statistical downscaling forecast model for summer precipitation over China.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,4,270-275,https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2011.11446941.
Kwon,H.H.,C.Brown,K.Q.Xu,and U.Lall,2009:Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information:Application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin,China.Hydrological Sciences Journal,54,582-595,https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.3.582.
Li,C.F.,and Coauthors,2016:Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall.Environmental Research Letters,11,094002,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002.
Li,F.,and Z.D.Lin,2015:Improving multi-model ensemble probabilistic prediction of Yangtze River valley summer rainfall.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,32,497-504,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4073-8.
Liu,Y.,and K.Fan,2012:Improve the prediction of summer precipitation in the Southeastern China by a hybrid statistical downscaling model.Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,117,121-134,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0201-0.
Lu,B.,A.A.Scaife,N.Dunstone,D.Smith,H.L.Ren,Y.Liu,and R.Eade,2017:Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China.Environmental Research Letters,12,074021,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa739a.
Mac Lachlan,C.,and Coauthors,2015:Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(Glo Sea5):A high-resolution seasonal forecast system.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,141,1072-1084,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.
Madec,G.,2008:NEMO ocean engine.Note du P?ole de mod′elisation,Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace(IPSL).France,No.27.[Available online from http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/About-NEMO/Reference-manuals]
Megann,A.,and Coauthors,2014:GO5.0:The joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications.Geoscientific Model Development,7,1069-1092,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014.
Palin,E.J.,A.A.Scaife,E.Wallace,E.C.D.Pope,A.Arribas,and A.Brookshaw,2016:Skillful seasonal forecasts of winter disruption to the U.K.transport system.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,55,325-344,https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0102.1.
Peng,Z.L.,Q.J.Wang,J.C.Bennett,P.Pokhrel,and Z.R.Wang,2014:Seasonal precipitation forecasts over China using monthly large-scale oceanic-atmospheric indices.J.Hydrol.,519,792-802,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.012.
Plate,E.J.,2002:Flood risk and flood management.J.Hydrol.,267,2-11,https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00135-x.
Podlaha,A.,S.Bowen,and C.Darbinyan,2016:July 2016 Global Catastrophe Recap.Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting,[Available online from http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/sitepages/display.aspx?tl=601]
Rae,J.G.L.,H.T.Hewitt,A.B.Keen,J.K.Ridley,A.E.West,C.M.Harris,E.C.Hunke,and D.N.Walters,2015:Development of the Global Sea Ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office Global Coupled model.Geoscientific Model Development,8,2221-2230,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2221-2015.
Scaife,A.A.,and Coauthors,2014:Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters.Geophys.Res.Lett.,41,2514-2519,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl059637.
Stuecker,M.F.,F.F.Jin,A.Timmermann,and S.Mc Gregor,2015:Combination mode dynamics of the Anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticyclone.J.Climate,28,1093-1111,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00225.1.
Svensson,C.,and Coauthors,2015:Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology.Environmental Research Letters,10,064006,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006.
Tung,Y.L.,C.Y.Tam,S.J.Sohn,and J.L.Chu,2013:Improving the seasonal forecast for summertime South China rainfall using statistical downscaling.J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,118,5147-5159,https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50367.
Walters,D.,and Coauthors,2017:The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1configurations.Geoscientific Model Development,10,1487-1520,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017.
Wang,B.,B.Q.Xiang,and J.Y.Lee,2013:Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110,2718-2722,https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110.
Wilks,D.S.,2011:Statistical forecasting.International Geophysics,100,215-300,https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385022-5.00007-5.
Williams,K.D.,and Coauthors,2015:The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0(GC2)configuration.Geoscientific Model Development,8,1509-1524,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015.
WMO,2017:WMO statement on the state of the global climate in2016.WMO-No.1189.Geneva:World Meteorological Organization.[Available online from http://library.wmo.int/opac/doc num.php?explnum id=3414]
Wu,Z.W.,and L.L.Yu,2016:Seasonal prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon with a partial-least square model.Climate Dyn.,46,3067-3078,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2753-4.
Xie,S.P.,Y.Kosaka,Y.Du,K.M.Hu,J.S.Chowdary,and G.Huang,2016:Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,33,411-432,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6.
Xing,W.,B.Wang,and S.Y.Yim,2016:Long-lead seasonal prediction of China summer rainfall using an EOF-PLSregression-based methodology.J.Climate,29,1783-1796,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0016.1.
Ye,Q.,and M.H.Glantz,2005:The 1998 Yangtze floods:The use of short-term forecasts in the context of seasonal to interannual water resource management.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,10,159-182,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-005-7838-7.
Yu,F.L.,Z.Y.Chen,X.Y.Ren,and G.F.Yang,2009:Analysis of historical floods on the Yangtze River,China:Characteristics and explanations.Geomorphology,113,210-216,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.03.008.
Yuan,Y.,H.Gao,W.J.Li,Y.J.Liu,L.J.Chen,B.Zhou,and Y.H.Ding,2017:The 2016 summer floods in China and associated physical mechanisms:A comparison with 1998.Journal of Meteorological Research,31,261-277,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6192-5.
Zhai,P.M.,and Coauthors,2016:The strong El Nino of 2015/16and its dominant impacts on global and China’s climate.Journal of Meteorological Research,30,283-297,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-6101-3.
Zhang,W.J.,H.Y.Li,M.F.Stuecker,F.F.Jin,and A.G.Turner,2016a:A new understanding of El Nino’s impact over East Asia:Dominance of the ENSO combination mode.J.Climate,29,4347-4359,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0104.1.
Zhang,W.J.,and Coauthors,2016b:Unraveling El Nino’s impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding.Geophys.Res.Lett.,43,11 375-11 382,https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071190.
Zhu,C.,C.K.Park,W.S.Lee,and W.T.Yun,2008:Statistical downscaling for multi-model ensemble prediction of summer monsoon rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region using geopotential height field.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,25,867-884,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x.
Zong,Y.Q.,and X.Q.Chen,2000:The 1998 flood on the Yangtze,China.Natural Hazards,22,165-184,https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1008119805106.
a Golding,N.,C.Hewitt,P.Bett,M.Liu,and P.Zhang:Co-Development of a Seasonal Forecast Climate Service:Supporting flood risk management for the Yangtze River Basin.(in preparation)
Adler,R.F.,and Coauthors,2003:The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-Present).Journal of Hydrometeorology,4,1147-1167,https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
Best,M.J.,and Coauthors,2011:The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator(JULES),model description-Part 1:Energy and water fluxes.Geoscientific Model Development,4,677-699,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011.
Bett,P.E.,and Coauthors,2017:Skill and reliability of seasonal forecasts for the Chinese energy sector.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,56,3099-3114,https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-17-0070.1.
Clark,R.T.,P.E.Bett,H.E.Thornton,and A.A.Scaife,2017:Skillful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry.Environmental Research Letters,12,024002,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa57ab.
Eade,R.,D.Smith,A.Scaife,E.Wallace,N.Dunstone,L.Hermanson,and N.Robinson,2014:Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?Geophys.Res.Lett.,41,5620-5628,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061146.
Golding,N.,C.Hewitt,P.Q.Zhang,P.Bett,X.Y.Fang,H.Z.Hu,and S.Nobert,2017:Improving user engagement and uptake of climate services in China.Climate Services,5,39-45,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.03.004.
Hardiman,S.,and Coauthors,2017:The asymmetric response of Yangtze River basin summer rainfall to El Nino/La Nina.Environmental Research Letters,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa172.(in press)
He,J.H.,and B.Q.Liu,2016:The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon:Recent progress.Journal of Meteorological Research,30,135-155,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-5222-z.
Hunke,E.C.,and W.H.Lipscomb,2010:CICE:The Los Alamos Sea Ice model documentation and software user’s manual,version 4.1.Report LA-CC-06-012,Los Alamos National Laboratory.[Available online from http://oceans11.lanl.gov/trac/CICE]
Jiao,M.Y.,and Coauthors,2013:Addressing the potential climate effects of China’s Three Gorges Project.WMO Bulletin,62(Special Issue),49-53.[Available online from http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=bulletin display&id=2738]
Ke,Z.J.,P.Q.Zhang,L.J.Chen,and L.M.Du,2011:An experiment of a statistical downscaling forecast model for summer precipitation over China.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,4,270-275,https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2011.11446941.
Kwon,H.H.,C.Brown,K.Q.Xu,and U.Lall,2009:Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information:Application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin,China.Hydrological Sciences Journal,54,582-595,https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.3.582.
Li,C.F.,and Coauthors,2016:Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall.Environmental Research Letters,11,094002,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002.
Li,F.,and Z.D.Lin,2015:Improving multi-model ensemble probabilistic prediction of Yangtze River valley summer rainfall.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,32,497-504,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4073-8.
Liu,Y.,and K.Fan,2012:Improve the prediction of summer precipitation in the Southeastern China by a hybrid statistical downscaling model.Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,117,121-134,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0201-0.
Lu,B.,A.A.Scaife,N.Dunstone,D.Smith,H.L.Ren,Y.Liu,and R.Eade,2017:Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China.Environmental Research Letters,12,074021,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa739a.
Mac Lachlan,C.,and Coauthors,2015:Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(Glo Sea5):A high-resolution seasonal forecast system.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,141,1072-1084,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.
Madec,G.,2008:NEMO ocean engine.Note du P?ole de mod′elisation,Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace(IPSL).France,No.27.[Available online from http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/About-NEMO/Reference-manuals]
Megann,A.,and Coauthors,2014:GO5.0:The joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications.Geoscientific Model Development,7,1069-1092,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014.
Palin,E.J.,A.A.Scaife,E.Wallace,E.C.D.Pope,A.Arribas,and A.Brookshaw,2016:Skillful seasonal forecasts of winter disruption to the U.K.transport system.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,55,325-344,https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0102.1.
Peng,Z.L.,Q.J.Wang,J.C.Bennett,P.Pokhrel,and Z.R.Wang,2014:Seasonal precipitation forecasts over China using monthly large-scale oceanic-atmospheric indices.J.Hydrol.,519,792-802,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.012.
Plate,E.J.,2002:Flood risk and flood management.J.Hydrol.,267,2-11,https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00135-x.
Podlaha,A.,S.Bowen,and C.Darbinyan,2016:July 2016 Global Catastrophe Recap.Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting,[Available online from http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/sitepages/display.aspx?tl=601]
Rae,J.G.L.,H.T.Hewitt,A.B.Keen,J.K.Ridley,A.E.West,C.M.Harris,E.C.Hunke,and D.N.Walters,2015:Development of the Global Sea Ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office Global Coupled model.Geoscientific Model Development,8,2221-2230,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2221-2015.
Scaife,A.A.,and Coauthors,2014:Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters.Geophys.Res.Lett.,41,2514-2519,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl059637.
Stuecker,M.F.,F.F.Jin,A.Timmermann,and S.Mc Gregor,2015:Combination mode dynamics of the Anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticyclone.J.Climate,28,1093-1111,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00225.1.
Svensson,C.,and Coauthors,2015:Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology.Environmental Research Letters,10,064006,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006.
Tung,Y.L.,C.Y.Tam,S.J.Sohn,and J.L.Chu,2013:Improving the seasonal forecast for summertime South China rainfall using statistical downscaling.J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,118,5147-5159,https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50367.
Walters,D.,and Coauthors,2017:The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1configurations.Geoscientific Model Development,10,1487-1520,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017.
Wang,B.,B.Q.Xiang,and J.Y.Lee,2013:Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110,2718-2722,https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110.
Wilks,D.S.,2011:Statistical forecasting.International Geophysics,100,215-300,https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385022-5.00007-5.
Williams,K.D.,and Coauthors,2015:The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0(GC2)configuration.Geoscientific Model Development,8,1509-1524,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015.
WMO,2017:WMO statement on the state of the global climate in2016.WMO-No.1189.Geneva:World Meteorological Organization.[Available online from http://library.wmo.int/opac/doc num.php?explnum id=3414]
Wu,Z.W.,and L.L.Yu,2016:Seasonal prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon with a partial-least square model.Climate Dyn.,46,3067-3078,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2753-4.
Xie,S.P.,Y.Kosaka,Y.Du,K.M.Hu,J.S.Chowdary,and G.Huang,2016:Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,33,411-432,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6.
Xing,W.,B.Wang,and S.Y.Yim,2016:Long-lead seasonal prediction of China summer rainfall using an EOF-PLSregression-based methodology.J.Climate,29,1783-1796,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0016.1.
Ye,Q.,and M.H.Glantz,2005:The 1998 Yangtze floods:The use of short-term forecasts in the context of seasonal to interannual water resource management.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,10,159-182,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-005-7838-7.
Yu,F.L.,Z.Y.Chen,X.Y.Ren,and G.F.Yang,2009:Analysis of historical floods on the Yangtze River,China:Characteristics and explanations.Geomorphology,113,210-216,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.03.008.
Yuan,Y.,H.Gao,W.J.Li,Y.J.Liu,L.J.Chen,B.Zhou,and Y.H.Ding,2017:The 2016 summer floods in China and associated physical mechanisms:A comparison with 1998.Journal of Meteorological Research,31,261-277,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6192-5.
Zhai,P.M.,and Coauthors,2016:The strong El Nino of 2015/16and its dominant impacts on global and China’s climate.Journal of Meteorological Research,30,283-297,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-016-6101-3.
Zhang,W.J.,H.Y.Li,M.F.Stuecker,F.F.Jin,and A.G.Turner,2016a:A new understanding of El Nino’s impact over East Asia:Dominance of the ENSO combination mode.J.Climate,29,4347-4359,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0104.1.
Zhang,W.J.,and Coauthors,2016b:Unraveling El Nino’s impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding.Geophys.Res.Lett.,43,11 375-11 382,https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071190.
Zhu,C.,C.K.Park,W.S.Lee,and W.T.Yun,2008:Statistical downscaling for multi-model ensemble prediction of summer monsoon rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region using geopotential height field.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,25,867-884,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x.
Zong,Y.Q.,and X.Q.Chen,2000:The 1998 flood on the Yangtze,China.Natural Hazards,22,165-184,https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1008119805106.
a Golding,N.,C.Hewitt,P.Bett,M.Liu,and P.Zhang:Co-Development of a Seasonal Forecast Climate Service:Supporting flood risk management for the Yangtze River Basin.(in preparation)