基于复杂网络的重大基础设施工程风险管理网络演化模型研究
|
摘要
重大基础设施工程系统的复杂性、不确定性,使得研究重大工程风险管理主体的策略选择行为具有重要的现实意义。基于风险管理主体交互行为形成的复杂网络,引入经验权重魅力值学习算法,构建重大工程风险管理主体决策行为的"Agent—元胞自动机"模型,对风险管理策略竞争演化进行研究。结果表明,各参与主体的风险管理策略选择除了受自身预期收益的影响之外,还受项目内其他异质性主体风险管理策略选择的影响,不同策略间的兼容性对参与主体行为影响较大,风险管理策略具有先发优势。研究结果为重大工程风险管理策略的实际推广和应用提供理论依据。
The complexity and uncertainty of major infrastructure projects systems make it important to study the strategy choice of risk management in major infrastructure projects. Based on the complex network formed by the interaction behaviors of risk management subjects,this paper introduced the EWA algorithm,constructed the agent-cellular automaton model of decision-making behaviors of major project risk management subjects,and studied the competitive evolution of risk management strategies. The results show that the choice of risk management strategy of each participant is affected not only by the expected return of the participant,but also by the choice of other heterogeneous risk management strategies in the project. The compatibility between different strategies has a great impact on the behavior of the participants. Risk management strategy has a first-mover advantage. The research results provided a theoretical basis for the practical promotion and application of risk management strategies for major projects.
The complexity and uncertainty of major infrastructure projects systems make it important to study the strategy choice of risk management in major infrastructure projects. Based on the complex network formed by the interaction behaviors of risk management subjects,this paper introduced the EWA algorithm,constructed the agent-cellular automaton model of decision-making behaviors of major project risk management subjects,and studied the competitive evolution of risk management strategies. The results show that the choice of risk management strategy of each participant is affected not only by the expected return of the participant,but also by the choice of other heterogeneous risk management strategies in the project. The compatibility between different strategies has a great impact on the behavior of the participants. Risk management strategy has a first-mover advantage. The research results provided a theoretical basis for the practical promotion and application of risk management strategies for major projects.
引文
[1]何旭东.基于复杂性分析的大型工程参与主体行为风险管理研究[J].技术经济与管理研究,2018(2):37-41.
[2]郭汉丁,郝海,张印贤.工程质量政府监督代理链分析与多层次激励机制探究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(6):82-90.
[3]杨婧,陈英武,沈永平.基于相互作用网络的大型工程项目组织结构风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(10):1966-1973.
[4]丁斅,徐峰.基于贝叶斯网络的工程风险管理研究——以港珠澳大桥主体工程设计风险为例[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):176-185,191.
[5]何清华,杨德磊,罗岚,马亮,李丽.基于贝叶斯网络的大型复杂工程项目群进度风险分析[J].软科学,2016,30(4):120-126,139.
[6]向鹏成,李佳.跨区域重大工程项目脆弱性研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(9):2383-2390.
[7] Park K,Lee HW,Choi K,Lee SH.Project Risk Factors Facing Construction Management Firms. International Journal of Civil Engineering,2017:1-17.
[8]刘宏,孙浩,李宗活.PPP模式下政府与投资方项目风险管理演化博弈分析[J].系统科学学报,2017,25(2):102-105,111.
[9]赵泽斌,满庆鹏.基于前景理论的重大基础设施工程风险管理行为演化博弈分析[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):109-117.
[10]薛小龙,王璐琪.重大工程管理理论演化与发展路径[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):192-199.
[11] Williams TM. Assessing and moving on from the dominant project management discourse in the light of project overruns. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2005,52(4):497-508.
[12]盛昭瀚.大型复杂工程综合集成管理模式初探——苏通大桥工程管理的理论思考[J].建筑经济,2009(5):20-22.
[13] Camerer C F.Behavioral Game Theory:Experiments in Strategic Interation[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2003.
[14] Katz M L,Shapiro C.Network externalities,competition and compatibility[J].The American Economic Review,1985,75(3):424-440.
[15]鲜于波,梅琳.适应性预期、复杂网络与标准扩散动力学——基于计算经济学的研究[J].管理科学,2007(4):62-72.
[16]李良,戎凯.基于风险网络的大型工程项目风险度量方法研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(22):107-114.
[17]李宗活,刘枚莲.基于效用理论的PPP项目融资风险分担比例模型研究[J].系统科学学报,2018,26(1):111-114.
[18]张宏娟,范如国.基于复杂网络演化博弈的传统产业集群低碳演化模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(12):41-47.
[19]刘春霞,孙绍荣.制度下行为模拟的Agent与CA方法比较研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(2):164-170.
[20]刘春霞,孙绍荣.“CA结构的智能Agent”方法的构建与应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(16):29-36.
[21]邢志伟,李世皎,唐云霄,罗谦.基于Agent—元胞自动机的机场场面交通仿真[J].系统仿真学报,2018,30(3):857-865.
[2]郭汉丁,郝海,张印贤.工程质量政府监督代理链分析与多层次激励机制探究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(6):82-90.
[3]杨婧,陈英武,沈永平.基于相互作用网络的大型工程项目组织结构风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(10):1966-1973.
[4]丁斅,徐峰.基于贝叶斯网络的工程风险管理研究——以港珠澳大桥主体工程设计风险为例[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):176-185,191.
[5]何清华,杨德磊,罗岚,马亮,李丽.基于贝叶斯网络的大型复杂工程项目群进度风险分析[J].软科学,2016,30(4):120-126,139.
[6]向鹏成,李佳.跨区域重大工程项目脆弱性研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(9):2383-2390.
[7] Park K,Lee HW,Choi K,Lee SH.Project Risk Factors Facing Construction Management Firms. International Journal of Civil Engineering,2017:1-17.
[8]刘宏,孙浩,李宗活.PPP模式下政府与投资方项目风险管理演化博弈分析[J].系统科学学报,2017,25(2):102-105,111.
[9]赵泽斌,满庆鹏.基于前景理论的重大基础设施工程风险管理行为演化博弈分析[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):109-117.
[10]薛小龙,王璐琪.重大工程管理理论演化与发展路径[J].系统管理学报,2018,27(1):192-199.
[11] Williams TM. Assessing and moving on from the dominant project management discourse in the light of project overruns. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2005,52(4):497-508.
[12]盛昭瀚.大型复杂工程综合集成管理模式初探——苏通大桥工程管理的理论思考[J].建筑经济,2009(5):20-22.
[13] Camerer C F.Behavioral Game Theory:Experiments in Strategic Interation[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2003.
[14] Katz M L,Shapiro C.Network externalities,competition and compatibility[J].The American Economic Review,1985,75(3):424-440.
[15]鲜于波,梅琳.适应性预期、复杂网络与标准扩散动力学——基于计算经济学的研究[J].管理科学,2007(4):62-72.
[16]李良,戎凯.基于风险网络的大型工程项目风险度量方法研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(22):107-114.
[17]李宗活,刘枚莲.基于效用理论的PPP项目融资风险分担比例模型研究[J].系统科学学报,2018,26(1):111-114.
[18]张宏娟,范如国.基于复杂网络演化博弈的传统产业集群低碳演化模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(12):41-47.
[19]刘春霞,孙绍荣.制度下行为模拟的Agent与CA方法比较研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(2):164-170.
[20]刘春霞,孙绍荣.“CA结构的智能Agent”方法的构建与应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(16):29-36.
[21]邢志伟,李世皎,唐云霄,罗谦.基于Agent—元胞自动机的机场场面交通仿真[J].系统仿真学报,2018,30(3):857-865.