气候变化背景下中原城市群城市发展的响应及适应策略
|
摘要
随着城镇化的不断推进和国家战略的深入实施,城市群已经成为人类活动的集中区域和规模庞大的承载体,更容易遭受气候变化带来的不利影响。本文以中原城市群为研究区域,选取1951—2018年的气象资料,采取距平、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall检验对中原城市群区域温度、降水、干旱指数3个气象要素的变化特征进行分析,并将这3个要素与城市发展综合指数进行相关性分析,来研究中原城市群气候变化特征及其对城市发展的影响。结果表明,年平均温度、年平均最高温度呈升高趋势,年降水量、年干旱指数呈减小趋势,且年平均温度、年干旱指数变化趋势比较明显。各气象要素的变化倾向率分别为0.31℃/10a、0.09℃/10a、-6.72mm/10a、-0.35/10a,并且各气象要素均发生气候突变。1978—2018年中原城市群城市发展综合指数呈显著上升趋势,趋势增长倾向率为3.1/10a。城市发展与年平均温度、年平均最高温度、年降水量呈正相关,与年干旱指数呈负相关。城市人类活动、城市区域内土地利用和土地覆盖方式发生改变等都是影响城市气候变化的重要因素。
With the continuous urbanization and the deep implementation of national strategy, urban agglomeration has become a concentrated area and a large scale carrier of human activities,which is more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. In this paper, with the urban agglomeration in the central plain as the research region, the meteorological data from 1951 to 2018 were selected to analyze the changing characteristics of three climate elements(temperature, precipitation and drought index), and a corelative analysis of those three elements and the comprehensive index of urban development was also conducted to study the climate change features of urban agglomeration in the central plains and its impact on urban development. The results indicate that the annual average temperature and annual average maximum temperature increase, annual precipitation and annual drought index decrease, and the annual average temperature and annual drought index changes are more obvious. The variation tendency of each meteorological element is 0.31 ℃/10 a, 0.09 ℃/10 a,-6.72 mm/10 a,-0.35/10 a, respectively. And all meteorological elements have abrupt climate change. The comprehensive index of urban development of urban agglomeration in the central plains showed a significant upward trend from 1978 to 2018, with a increase tendency rate of 3.1/10 a. Urban development is positively correlated with annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature and annual precipitation, and negatively correlated with annual drought index. Urban human activities, urban land use and cover changes are the important factors affecting urban climate change.
With the continuous urbanization and the deep implementation of national strategy, urban agglomeration has become a concentrated area and a large scale carrier of human activities,which is more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. In this paper, with the urban agglomeration in the central plain as the research region, the meteorological data from 1951 to 2018 were selected to analyze the changing characteristics of three climate elements(temperature, precipitation and drought index), and a corelative analysis of those three elements and the comprehensive index of urban development was also conducted to study the climate change features of urban agglomeration in the central plains and its impact on urban development. The results indicate that the annual average temperature and annual average maximum temperature increase, annual precipitation and annual drought index decrease, and the annual average temperature and annual drought index changes are more obvious. The variation tendency of each meteorological element is 0.31 ℃/10 a, 0.09 ℃/10 a,-6.72 mm/10 a,-0.35/10 a, respectively. And all meteorological elements have abrupt climate change. The comprehensive index of urban development of urban agglomeration in the central plains showed a significant upward trend from 1978 to 2018, with a increase tendency rate of 3.1/10 a. Urban development is positively correlated with annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature and annual precipitation, and negatively correlated with annual drought index. Urban human activities, urban land use and cover changes are the important factors affecting urban climate change.
引文
[1]Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report.Contribution of Working Groups I,II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].IPCC,2014.
[2]Mark P.Mc Carthy Martin J.Best Richard A.Betts.Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2010(9):113-118.
[3]欧延升,赵景波.广西北部湾地区1951-2010年间气候变化与ENSO事件影响[J].灾害学,2017(1):228-234.
[4]Zhou D,Zhang L,Hao L,et al.Spatiotemporal trends of urban heat island effect along the urban development intensity gradient in China[J].Science of The Total Environment,2016,544:617-626.
[5]周莉,江志红,李肇新,等.中国东部不同区域城市群下垫面变化气候效应的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2015(3):596-610.
[6]张豪,谭静,张建华.气候变化与城市全要素生产率:理论与实证[J].气候变化研究进展,2018(2):165-174.
[7]董锁成,陶澍,杨旺舟,等.气候变化对我国中西部地区城市群的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(2):72-76.
[8]刘玉珂,崔丽丽.系统观:应对气候变化的资源开发利用新思路[J].经济地理,2014(11):146-150.
[9]吴志军.长江中游城市群协调发展及合作路径[J].经济地理,2015(3):60-65.
[10]吴福象,刘志彪.城市化群落驱动经济增长的机制研究:来自长三角16个城市的经验证据[J].经济研究,2008(11):126-136.
[2]Mark P.Mc Carthy Martin J.Best Richard A.Betts.Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2010(9):113-118.
[3]欧延升,赵景波.广西北部湾地区1951-2010年间气候变化与ENSO事件影响[J].灾害学,2017(1):228-234.
[4]Zhou D,Zhang L,Hao L,et al.Spatiotemporal trends of urban heat island effect along the urban development intensity gradient in China[J].Science of The Total Environment,2016,544:617-626.
[5]周莉,江志红,李肇新,等.中国东部不同区域城市群下垫面变化气候效应的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2015(3):596-610.
[6]张豪,谭静,张建华.气候变化与城市全要素生产率:理论与实证[J].气候变化研究进展,2018(2):165-174.
[7]董锁成,陶澍,杨旺舟,等.气候变化对我国中西部地区城市群的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(2):72-76.
[8]刘玉珂,崔丽丽.系统观:应对气候变化的资源开发利用新思路[J].经济地理,2014(11):146-150.
[9]吴志军.长江中游城市群协调发展及合作路径[J].经济地理,2015(3):60-65.
[10]吴福象,刘志彪.城市化群落驱动经济增长的机制研究:来自长三角16个城市的经验证据[J].经济研究,2008(11):126-136.