Approach to the Geopolitical Influences of Great Powers in Southeast Asia: Case Studies of China and the US
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摘要
A quantitative approach to the national geopolitical influence is helpful to provide a reference for national sustainable development on the international stage, based on describing national diplomatic capacity and overseas influence. Herein, this study proposes a complex geopolitical influence model, considering the affected nations' response. The geopolitical influences of great power in the affected nation are correlated with overall strength, the acceptance degree of the affected nation to the great power and the distance between both sides. Then, the geopolitical influences of China and the US in Southeast Asia countries are empirically analyzed from 2005 to 2015. The geopolitical influence of China in Southeast Asia has been largely growing for the past decades, accompanying with a constant trend of the US' effects. It is believed that China and the US can coexist peacefully in Southeast Asia to promote the regional development, and jointly create an open, inclusive and balanced regional cooperation architecture that benefits all nations in this region and great powers, through mutual political trust and economic beneficial cooperation. This study may contribute to advancing the policy debate and determining the optimal cooperation in pledging commitment to a new and sustainable model of great power relationship among the various regional geopolitical options.
A quantitative approach to the national geopolitical influence is helpful to provide a reference for national sustainable development on the international stage, based on describing national diplomatic capacity and overseas influence. Herein, this study proposes a complex geopolitical influence model, considering the affected nations' response. The geopolitical influences of great power in the affected nation are correlated with overall strength, the acceptance degree of the affected nation to the great power and the distance between both sides. Then, the geopolitical influences of China and the US in Southeast Asia countries are empirically analyzed from 2005 to 2015. The geopolitical influence of China in Southeast Asia has been largely growing for the past decades, accompanying with a constant trend of the US' effects. It is believed that China and the US can coexist peacefully in Southeast Asia to promote the regional development, and jointly create an open, inclusive and balanced regional cooperation architecture that benefits all nations in this region and great powers, through mutual political trust and economic beneficial cooperation. This study may contribute to advancing the policy debate and determining the optimal cooperation in pledging commitment to a new and sustainable model of great power relationship among the various regional geopolitical options.
A quantitative approach to the national geopolitical influence is helpful to provide a reference for national sustainable development on the international stage, based on describing national diplomatic capacity and overseas influence. Herein, this study proposes a complex geopolitical influence model, considering the affected nations' response. The geopolitical influences of great power in the affected nation are correlated with overall strength, the acceptance degree of the affected nation to the great power and the distance between both sides. Then, the geopolitical influences of China and the US in Southeast Asia countries are empirically analyzed from 2005 to 2015. The geopolitical influence of China in Southeast Asia has been largely growing for the past decades, accompanying with a constant trend of the US' effects. It is believed that China and the US can coexist peacefully in Southeast Asia to promote the regional development, and jointly create an open, inclusive and balanced regional cooperation architecture that benefits all nations in this region and great powers, through mutual political trust and economic beneficial cooperation. This study may contribute to advancing the policy debate and determining the optimal cooperation in pledging commitment to a new and sustainable model of great power relationship among the various regional geopolitical options.
引文
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Burgos S,Ear S,2010.China's strategic interests in Cambodia:influence and resources.Asian Survey,50(3):615-639.doi:10.1525/as.2010.50.3.615
Cao Yuan,Wang Jia,Ge Yuejing,2011.The vulnerability of political geography in Vietnam.World Regional Studies,20(4):26-32.(in Chinese)
Cohen S B,2011.Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations.Yan Chunsong,Trans.2nd ed.Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.(in Chinese)
De Castro R C,Lohman W.Empowering a new era in the United States-Philippines security alliance.GT Toyota Asian Cultural Center,University of the Philippines.http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/bg2431.pdf.2010-06-28/2016-10-06.
Esterline M H,1997.Reviewed Work:Southeast Asia in the new world order:the political economy of a dynamic region by David Wurfel,Bruce Burton.The Journal of Asian Studies,56(2):577-578.doi:10.2307/2646332
Fairgrieve J,1915.Geography and World Power.London:University of London Press.
Fang Tianjian,He Yue,2013.Review on geostrategic adjustment of great powers in Southeast Asia in the Post-Cold War.World Regional Studies,22(3):30-40.(in Chinese)
Goh E,2007.Southeast Asian perspectives on the China challenge.Journal of Strategic Studies,30(4-5):809-832.doi:10.1080/01402390701431915
Graham E,2013.Southeast Asia in the US rebalance:perceptions from a divided region.Contemporary Southeast Asia,35(3):305-332.doi:10.1355/cs35-3a
Gu M C,Wang L M,2015.Assessment of oil and gas geopolitical influence.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25(3):369-384.doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1174-y
He Shengda,2007.ASEAN’s policies towards China and the development of the China-ASEAN relationship.Innovation,(1):6-15.(in Chinese)
Hu Zhiding,Liu Yuli,Li Cansong et al.,2014.Power,geo-setting and evaluation method of geo-potential:a case study of the dispute over China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands.Tropical Geography,34(1):50-57.(in Chinese)
Jacques M,2009.When China Rules the World:The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order.New York:Penguin Press.
Jaffe E D,Nebenzahl I D,2001.National Image and Competitive Advantage:The Theory and Practice of Country-of-Origin Effect.Copenhagen:Copenhagen Business School Press.
Keohane R O,Nye Jr J S,2012.Power and Interdependence.Men Honghua,Trans.Beijing:Peking University Press.(in Chinese)
Kim J,2016.Possible future of the contest in the South China Sea.The Chinese Journal of International Politics,9(1):27-57.doi:10.1093/cjip/pow001
Kl?epper Y,2008.Southeast Asian water conflicts-from a political geography perspective.Asia Europe Journal,6(2):325-343.doi:10.1007/s10308-008-0187-x
Kreuzer P,2016.A comparison of Malaysian and Philippine responses to China in the South China Sea.The Chinese Journal of International Politics,9(3):259-276.doi:10.1093/cjip/pow008
Lavina L,Lee J,2016.Japan-India cooperation and Abe's democratic security diamond:possibilities,limitations and the view from Southeast Asia.Contemporary Southeast Asia,38(2):284-308.
Li Fei,Cheng Shengkui,Yu Huilu et al.,2016.National geopolitical vulnerability:a Myanmar case and implications for China's geopolitical policy.Progress in Geography,35(6):737-746.(in Chinese)
Liu Xinsheng,2010.USA:closer relations with ASEAN countries in high-profile and its impact.Around Southeast Asia,(1):60-63.(in Chinese)
Luo Jinjing,2007.After Southeast Asian Financial crisis:new development of relation between China and ASEAN.Around Southeast Asia,(8):8-13.(in Chinese)
Mc Gregor A,2005.Geopolitics and human rights:unpacking Australia’s Burma.Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography,26(2):191-211.doi:10.1111/j.0129-7619.2005.00213.x
O'sullivan P,1986.Geopolitics.Kent:Croom Helm Ltd.
Paladini S,2012.Evaluating water security in the Asia-Pacific region:a new approach based on vulnerability indices.Eurasian Geography and Economics,53(1):95-114.doi:10.2747/1539-7216.53.1.95
Parameswaran P.US-Asia relations:advances made but challenges remain.University of Hawaii.https://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/private/apb191.pdf.2017-05-07.
Scott D,2012.NATO and India:the politics of strategic convergence.International Politics,49(1):98-116.doi:10.1057/ip.2011.35
Stern L M.Diverging roads:21st-century U.S.-Thai defense relations.Institute for National Strategic Studies,National Defense University.http://www.docin.com/p-1409682058.html.2015-07-02.
Su Donghui,Luo Huasong,Cai Dingkun,2013.Analysis of geo-economic relationships between the region of Southeast Asia and major outside countries.World Regional Studies,22(1):1-11.(in Chinese)
Tang Yanlin,2010.The Obama administration policy adjustments in East Asia and China’s response.Northeast Asia Forum,19(2):49-57.(in Chinese)
Wang Fei,2004.Military cooperation between Singapore and USA.Southeast Asian Studies,(3):50-54.(in Chinese)
Wang Limao,Li Hongqiang,2009.Cooperation and competition of oil and gas resources between China and its neighboring countries and its impacts on geopolitics.Resources Science,31(10):1633-1639.(in Chinese)
Wang Qingzhong,2009.Chinese identity transformation and foreign contact:taking China ASEAN relationship as an example.Southeast Asian Studies,(6):61-65,91.(in Chinese)
Wang S F,Cao Y,Ge Y J,2015a.Spatio-temporal Changes and Their Reasons to the Geopolitical Influence of China and the US in South Asia.Sustainability,7(1):1064-1080.doi:10.3390/su7011064
Wang Shufang,Ge Yuejing,Liu Yuli,2015b.The spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of geopolitical influence of China and the US in south Asia.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(6):864-878.(in Chinese)
Wang Zhengxu,Yang Ying,2009.China in the eyes of Southeast Asia:a poll analysis.Contemporary Internal Relations,(5):53-60,62.(in Chinese)
Wilson J D,2015.Mega-regional trade deals in the Asia-Pacific:choosing between the TPP and RCEP?Journal of Contemporary Asia,45(2):345-353.doi:10.1080/00472336.2014.956138
Yuan J D,2006.China-ASEAN Relations:Perspectives,Prospects and Implications for U.S.Interests.Carlisle,PA:U.S.Army War College,Strategic Studies Institute.
Burgos S,Ear S,2010.China's strategic interests in Cambodia:influence and resources.Asian Survey,50(3):615-639.doi:10.1525/as.2010.50.3.615
Cao Yuan,Wang Jia,Ge Yuejing,2011.The vulnerability of political geography in Vietnam.World Regional Studies,20(4):26-32.(in Chinese)
Cohen S B,2011.Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations.Yan Chunsong,Trans.2nd ed.Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.(in Chinese)
De Castro R C,Lohman W.Empowering a new era in the United States-Philippines security alliance.GT Toyota Asian Cultural Center,University of the Philippines.http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/bg2431.pdf.2010-06-28/2016-10-06.
Esterline M H,1997.Reviewed Work:Southeast Asia in the new world order:the political economy of a dynamic region by David Wurfel,Bruce Burton.The Journal of Asian Studies,56(2):577-578.doi:10.2307/2646332
Fairgrieve J,1915.Geography and World Power.London:University of London Press.
Fang Tianjian,He Yue,2013.Review on geostrategic adjustment of great powers in Southeast Asia in the Post-Cold War.World Regional Studies,22(3):30-40.(in Chinese)
Goh E,2007.Southeast Asian perspectives on the China challenge.Journal of Strategic Studies,30(4-5):809-832.doi:10.1080/01402390701431915
Graham E,2013.Southeast Asia in the US rebalance:perceptions from a divided region.Contemporary Southeast Asia,35(3):305-332.doi:10.1355/cs35-3a
Gu M C,Wang L M,2015.Assessment of oil and gas geopolitical influence.Journal of Geographical Sciences,25(3):369-384.doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1174-y
He Shengda,2007.ASEAN’s policies towards China and the development of the China-ASEAN relationship.Innovation,(1):6-15.(in Chinese)
Hu Zhiding,Liu Yuli,Li Cansong et al.,2014.Power,geo-setting and evaluation method of geo-potential:a case study of the dispute over China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands.Tropical Geography,34(1):50-57.(in Chinese)
Jacques M,2009.When China Rules the World:The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order.New York:Penguin Press.
Jaffe E D,Nebenzahl I D,2001.National Image and Competitive Advantage:The Theory and Practice of Country-of-Origin Effect.Copenhagen:Copenhagen Business School Press.
Keohane R O,Nye Jr J S,2012.Power and Interdependence.Men Honghua,Trans.Beijing:Peking University Press.(in Chinese)
Kim J,2016.Possible future of the contest in the South China Sea.The Chinese Journal of International Politics,9(1):27-57.doi:10.1093/cjip/pow001
Kl?epper Y,2008.Southeast Asian water conflicts-from a political geography perspective.Asia Europe Journal,6(2):325-343.doi:10.1007/s10308-008-0187-x
Kreuzer P,2016.A comparison of Malaysian and Philippine responses to China in the South China Sea.The Chinese Journal of International Politics,9(3):259-276.doi:10.1093/cjip/pow008
Lavina L,Lee J,2016.Japan-India cooperation and Abe's democratic security diamond:possibilities,limitations and the view from Southeast Asia.Contemporary Southeast Asia,38(2):284-308.
Li Fei,Cheng Shengkui,Yu Huilu et al.,2016.National geopolitical vulnerability:a Myanmar case and implications for China's geopolitical policy.Progress in Geography,35(6):737-746.(in Chinese)
Liu Xinsheng,2010.USA:closer relations with ASEAN countries in high-profile and its impact.Around Southeast Asia,(1):60-63.(in Chinese)
Luo Jinjing,2007.After Southeast Asian Financial crisis:new development of relation between China and ASEAN.Around Southeast Asia,(8):8-13.(in Chinese)
Mc Gregor A,2005.Geopolitics and human rights:unpacking Australia’s Burma.Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography,26(2):191-211.doi:10.1111/j.0129-7619.2005.00213.x
O'sullivan P,1986.Geopolitics.Kent:Croom Helm Ltd.
Paladini S,2012.Evaluating water security in the Asia-Pacific region:a new approach based on vulnerability indices.Eurasian Geography and Economics,53(1):95-114.doi:10.2747/1539-7216.53.1.95
Parameswaran P.US-Asia relations:advances made but challenges remain.University of Hawaii.https://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/private/apb191.pdf.2017-05-07.
Scott D,2012.NATO and India:the politics of strategic convergence.International Politics,49(1):98-116.doi:10.1057/ip.2011.35
Stern L M.Diverging roads:21st-century U.S.-Thai defense relations.Institute for National Strategic Studies,National Defense University.http://www.docin.com/p-1409682058.html.2015-07-02.
Su Donghui,Luo Huasong,Cai Dingkun,2013.Analysis of geo-economic relationships between the region of Southeast Asia and major outside countries.World Regional Studies,22(1):1-11.(in Chinese)
Tang Yanlin,2010.The Obama administration policy adjustments in East Asia and China’s response.Northeast Asia Forum,19(2):49-57.(in Chinese)
Wang Fei,2004.Military cooperation between Singapore and USA.Southeast Asian Studies,(3):50-54.(in Chinese)
Wang Limao,Li Hongqiang,2009.Cooperation and competition of oil and gas resources between China and its neighboring countries and its impacts on geopolitics.Resources Science,31(10):1633-1639.(in Chinese)
Wang Qingzhong,2009.Chinese identity transformation and foreign contact:taking China ASEAN relationship as an example.Southeast Asian Studies,(6):61-65,91.(in Chinese)
Wang S F,Cao Y,Ge Y J,2015a.Spatio-temporal Changes and Their Reasons to the Geopolitical Influence of China and the US in South Asia.Sustainability,7(1):1064-1080.doi:10.3390/su7011064
Wang Shufang,Ge Yuejing,Liu Yuli,2015b.The spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of geopolitical influence of China and the US in south Asia.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(6):864-878.(in Chinese)
Wang Zhengxu,Yang Ying,2009.China in the eyes of Southeast Asia:a poll analysis.Contemporary Internal Relations,(5):53-60,62.(in Chinese)
Wilson J D,2015.Mega-regional trade deals in the Asia-Pacific:choosing between the TPP and RCEP?Journal of Contemporary Asia,45(2):345-353.doi:10.1080/00472336.2014.956138
Yuan J D,2006.China-ASEAN Relations:Perspectives,Prospects and Implications for U.S.Interests.Carlisle,PA:U.S.Army War College,Strategic Studies Institute.