SLEUTH城市扩展模型的改进及验证——以唐山市为例
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摘要
研究城市扩展以对城市化过程做出有效决策,进而调控未来的城市增长,对实现城市经济、社会与生态效益的最大化具有十分重要的意义.本研究首先以唐山市为城市扩展研究区从2个方面改进了SLEUTH模型,其次基于改进的SLEUTH模型对唐山市城市扩展进行情景预测.模型改进具体内容:引入分区定标机制,分区定标能有效体现城市内部不同区域增长速度的差异,进而改进模型模拟精度;引入宏观因素来改进SLEUTH模型的参数自修改规则,进而影响SLEUTH模型对城市增长趋势的模拟,理论上在城市增长机制上应进一步提高模型的合理性及模型精度.基于2种情景模式:惯性扩展模式、政策调节模式,预测了唐山市2010—2020年的城市增长,政策调节模式预测结果显示唐山市在2010—2020年间将继续保持面积年增长大于2.5%的高速城市化速度,其中2015、2020年城市规模将分别达到2009年规模的1.18、1.35倍.
Urban expansion investigations are essential for effective urban planning.SLEUTH,an urban expansion model,was improved and Tangshan was selected to check the improved model.Future urban growth in Tangshan was predicted with improved SLEUTH.Zoning reflecting differences in urban growth rate improved model accuracy;Self-modification rule of SLEUTH was improved by macro factors,affecting the simulation of urban growth trend,making the principles of SLEUTH more reasonable and leading to better results.Forecasts of urban development in Tangshan in 2020 were produced with two scenarios:inertia scenario,policy adjusted scenario.Prediction of policy adjusted scenario indicated that Tangshan will maintain an annual area growth rate of greater than 2.5% from 2010 to 2020.Urban area in 2015 and 2020 will be 1.18 and 1.35 times that of 2009 respectively.
Urban expansion investigations are essential for effective urban planning.SLEUTH,an urban expansion model,was improved and Tangshan was selected to check the improved model.Future urban growth in Tangshan was predicted with improved SLEUTH.Zoning reflecting differences in urban growth rate improved model accuracy;Self-modification rule of SLEUTH was improved by macro factors,affecting the simulation of urban growth trend,making the principles of SLEUTH more reasonable and leading to better results.Forecasts of urban development in Tangshan in 2020 were produced with two scenarios:inertia scenario,policy adjusted scenario.Prediction of policy adjusted scenario indicated that Tangshan will maintain an annual area growth rate of greater than 2.5% from 2010 to 2020.Urban area in 2015 and 2020 will be 1.18 and 1.35 times that of 2009 respectively.
引文
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[2]徐昔保.基于GIS与元胞自动机的城市土地利用动态演化模拟与优化研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2007
[3]Batty M,Xie Y.Modeling inside GIS:Part1:modelstructures,exploratory spatial analysis[J].InternationalJournal of Geographic information Systems,1994a,8(3):291
[4]Batty M,Xie Y.Modeling inside GIS:Part2:Selectingand calibrating urban models using ARC/INFO[J].International Journal of Geographic information Systems,1994b,8(5):451
[5]Clarke K C,Hoppen S,Gaydos L.A self-modifyingcellular automaton model of historical urbanization in theSan Francisco Bay area[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,1997,24:247
[6]Clarke K C,Gaydos L.Loose-coupling a cellularautomaton model and GIS:long-term urban growthprediction for San Francisco and Washiton/Baltimore[J].International Journal of Geographic Information Science,1998,12(7):699
[7]Waddell P.Urbansim:modelling urban development forland use,transportation and environment planning[J].Journal of American Planning Association,2002,68(3):297
[8]Deal B M,Sun Z.A spatially explicit urban simulationmodel:the land-use evolution and impact assessmentmodel(LEAM)[M]∥Ruth,Mattias.Regional development,infrastructure and adaptation to climate variability and change,New York:Springer,2005
[9]Jantz C A,Goetz S J,Donato D,et al.Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model[J].Comput Environ and Urban Systems,2010,34(1):1
[10]Rafiee R,Mahiny A S,Khorasani N,et al.Simulating urban growth in Mashad City,Iran through the SLEUTH model(UGM)[J].Cities,2009,26:19
[11]Silva E A,Clarke K C.Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto,Portugal[J].Comput Environ and Urban Systems,2002,26:525
[12]Wu X,Hu Y,He H S,et al.Performance evolution of the SLEUTH model in the Shenyang metropolitan area of northeastern China[J].Environ Model Assess,2009,14:221
[13]米丽娜.基于SLEUTH模型的银川市空间扩展研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2006
[14]张岩,陈云浩,李京.人口条件约束下的城市元胞自动机模型研究[J].中国图象图形学报,2007,12(8):1483
[15]张岩,李京,陈云浩.利用SLEUTH模型进行北京城市扩展模拟研究[J].遥感信息,2007(2):50
[16]唐山市统计局.唐山统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1993—2008