基本农田信息对SLEUTH模型模拟准确性的影响——以常州市中心城区为例
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摘要
以常州市中心城区为研究区,探索规划基本农田信息对SLEUTH模型校准过程产生的作用,在此基础上对常州市中心城区的城市扩张进行预测。采用一组对比试验:排除层E1不包含规划基本农田信息,排除层E2包含规划基本农田信息,限制城市发展。试验结果表明,排除层的设计影响模型的校准过程,在研究区内将规划基本农田信息纳入排除层可以有效提高模型校准精度,从而更好地预测常州市中心城区未来城市扩张情况。
Taking Changzhou downtown as a case study,this paper explored the impacts that basic farmland did on the process of SLEUTH model calibration.Finally the urban growth of Changzhou downtown was predicted.In the research,a comparative test was adopted to investigate the effects that basic farmland did on the SLEUTH model calibration.The excluded layer E1 did not contain any information of basic farmland.On the contrary,the basic farmland was selected to limit the urban development in the excluded layer E2.A comparison of the results obtained by these two methods indicated that the design of excluded layer impacted the model calibration process indeed.The inclusion of basic farmland information in the excluded layer can effectively improve the calibration accuracy of the model.Moreover,it also made a contribution to forecast the urban growth of Changzhou downtown.
Taking Changzhou downtown as a case study,this paper explored the impacts that basic farmland did on the process of SLEUTH model calibration.Finally the urban growth of Changzhou downtown was predicted.In the research,a comparative test was adopted to investigate the effects that basic farmland did on the SLEUTH model calibration.The excluded layer E1 did not contain any information of basic farmland.On the contrary,the basic farmland was selected to limit the urban development in the excluded layer E2.A comparison of the results obtained by these two methods indicated that the design of excluded layer impacted the model calibration process indeed.The inclusion of basic farmland information in the excluded layer can effectively improve the calibration accuracy of the model.Moreover,it also made a contribution to forecast the urban growth of Changzhou downtown.
引文
[1]冯徽徽,刘慧平,周彬学,等.SLEUTH模型的参数行为研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2012,28(6):39-43.
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[5]AL-SHALABI M,BILLA L,PRADHAN B,et al.Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models:The case of Sana′a metropolitan city,Yemen[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2013,70(1):425-437.
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[9]CLARKE K C.A decade of cellular urban modeling with SLEUTH:Unresolved issues and problems[A].BRAIL R K.Planning Support System for Cities and Regions[C].Cambridge,MA:Lincoln Institute of Land Policy,2008.47-60.
[10]ONSTED J A.The Effectiveness of the Williamson Act:A Spatial Analysis[M].ProQuest,2007.
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[12]徐新良,通拉嘎,郑凯迪,等.京津冀都市圈城镇扩展时空过程及其未来情景预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):256-261.
[13]吴巍,周生路,魏也华,等.中心城区城市增长的情景模拟与空间格局演化——以福建省泉州市为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2041-2054.
[14]ONSTED J A,CHOWDHURY R R.Does zoning matter?A comparative analysis of landscape change in Redland,Florida using cellular automata[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,121:1-18.
[15]ONSTED J,CLARKE K C.The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration:A comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2012,26(5):881-898.
[16]李明杰,钱乐祥,吴志峰,等.广州市海珠区高密度城区扩展SLEUTH模型模拟[J].地理学报,2009,65(10):1163-1172.
[17]任书潭.城市扩张中的基本农田保护规划问题研究[J].企业导报,2012(14):24-24.
[18]杨肖光,姜浩然.大城市周边基本农田保护区发展研究[J].兰州学刊,2008(4):66-68.
[19]张燕.我国基本农田保护制度研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2013.
[20]JANTZ C A,GOETZ S J.Analysis of scale dependencies in an urban land-use-change model[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2005,19(2):217-241.
[21]DIETZEL C.Spatio-temporal difference in model outputs and parameter space as determined by calibration extent[A].ATKINSON P.Geodynamics[C].Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press,2004.233-248.
[22]CLARKE K,HOPPEN S,GAYDOS L.A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical[J].Environment Plan B,1997,24:247-261.
[23]DIETZEL C,CLARKE K C.Toward optimal calibration of the SLEUTH land use change model[J].Transactions in GIS,2007,11(1):29-45.
[24]王贞超.基于GIS和MAS的城市用地扩展模拟研究[D].南京:南京大学,2012.
[2]李志英,刘涵妮.2003-20l1年国内外城市拓展SLEUTH模型研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):25-28.
[3]CHAUDHURI G,CLARKE K C.The SLEUTH land use change model:A review[J].International Journal of Environmental Resources Research,2013,1(1):88-104.
[4]DEZHKAM S,AMIRI B J,DARVISHSEFAT A A,et al.Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model:A case study of Rasht County,Guilan,Iran[J].GeoJournal,2014,79:591-604.
[5]AL-SHALABI M,BILLA L,PRADHAN B,et al.Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models:The case of Sana′a metropolitan city,Yemen[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2013,70(1):425-437.
[6]GOETZ S J,JANTZ C A,TOWE C A,et al.Modeling the Urbanization Process across Maryland in the Context of Chesapeake Bay Restoration[C].Resources for the Future,2007.6.
[7]LAHTI J.Modelling urban growth using cellular automata:A case study of Sydney,Australia[D].Enschede,The Netherlands:International Institute for GeoInformation Science and Earth Observation,2008.
[8]TORRENS P M,O′SULLIVAN D.Cellular automata and urban simulation:Where do we go from here?[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2001,28(2):163-168.
[9]CLARKE K C.A decade of cellular urban modeling with SLEUTH:Unresolved issues and problems[A].BRAIL R K.Planning Support System for Cities and Regions[C].Cambridge,MA:Lincoln Institute of Land Policy,2008.47-60.
[10]ONSTED J A.The Effectiveness of the Williamson Act:A Spatial Analysis[M].ProQuest,2007.
[11]JANTZ C A,GOETZ S J,SHELLEY M K.Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area[J].Environment and Planning B,2004,31(2):251-272.
[12]徐新良,通拉嘎,郑凯迪,等.京津冀都市圈城镇扩展时空过程及其未来情景预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):256-261.
[13]吴巍,周生路,魏也华,等.中心城区城市增长的情景模拟与空间格局演化——以福建省泉州市为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2041-2054.
[14]ONSTED J A,CHOWDHURY R R.Does zoning matter?A comparative analysis of landscape change in Redland,Florida using cellular automata[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,121:1-18.
[15]ONSTED J,CLARKE K C.The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration:A comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2012,26(5):881-898.
[16]李明杰,钱乐祥,吴志峰,等.广州市海珠区高密度城区扩展SLEUTH模型模拟[J].地理学报,2009,65(10):1163-1172.
[17]任书潭.城市扩张中的基本农田保护规划问题研究[J].企业导报,2012(14):24-24.
[18]杨肖光,姜浩然.大城市周边基本农田保护区发展研究[J].兰州学刊,2008(4):66-68.
[19]张燕.我国基本农田保护制度研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2013.
[20]JANTZ C A,GOETZ S J.Analysis of scale dependencies in an urban land-use-change model[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2005,19(2):217-241.
[21]DIETZEL C.Spatio-temporal difference in model outputs and parameter space as determined by calibration extent[A].ATKINSON P.Geodynamics[C].Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press,2004.233-248.
[22]CLARKE K,HOPPEN S,GAYDOS L.A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical[J].Environment Plan B,1997,24:247-261.
[23]DIETZEL C,CLARKE K C.Toward optimal calibration of the SLEUTH land use change model[J].Transactions in GIS,2007,11(1):29-45.
[24]王贞超.基于GIS和MAS的城市用地扩展模拟研究[D].南京:南京大学,2012.