基于两种SPEI序列的淮河流域干湿特征变化
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摘要
基于FAO56 Penman-Monteith和Hargreaves-Samani两种潜在蒸散发计算方法得到了12个月尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),研究了1960—2016年淮河流域干湿时空变化特征以及两种SPEI序列对相关气象要素的敏感性。结果表明:两种SPEI序列均显示流域呈变湿趋势,温度距平值与SPEI负相关,与潜在蒸散发距平值正相关;空间上,流域西北和东部地区呈显著变湿趋势,中部地区为不显著变干趋势; SPEI去趋势后,流域的干湿变化斜率减小,去趋势过程不改变SPEI的趋势变化分布,只影响流域的干湿变化幅度;气象要素的趋势变化可影响流域干湿变化趋势和干湿等级,淮河流域干湿变化影响因素由强到弱顺序依次为温度、日照时数、风速和相对湿度。
Based on two potential evapotranspiration calculation methods of FAO56 Penman-Monteith and HargreavesSamani,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index( SPEI) at 12-month scale was obtained. The spatial and temporal variations of dry and wet in Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2016 and the sensitivity of two SPEI sequences to related meteorological factors were studied. The results show that both SPEI sequences show a trend of wetting. The temperature anomaly is negatively correlated with SPEI and positively correlated with the potential evapotranspiration anomaly. Spatially,the northwest and east of the basin show a significant trend of wetting,while the central region shows a non-significant trend of drying. After the detrend of SPEI,the slope of dry-wet change in the basin decreases,and the detrend process does not change the trend distribution of SPEI,but only affects the range of dry-wet change in the basin.The trend change of meteorological factors can affect the trend and grade of dry-wet change in the basin. The order of influencing factors of dry-wet change in Huaihe River Basin from strong to weak is temperature,sunshine duration,wind speed and relative humidity.
Based on two potential evapotranspiration calculation methods of FAO56 Penman-Monteith and HargreavesSamani,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index( SPEI) at 12-month scale was obtained. The spatial and temporal variations of dry and wet in Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2016 and the sensitivity of two SPEI sequences to related meteorological factors were studied. The results show that both SPEI sequences show a trend of wetting. The temperature anomaly is negatively correlated with SPEI and positively correlated with the potential evapotranspiration anomaly. Spatially,the northwest and east of the basin show a significant trend of wetting,while the central region shows a non-significant trend of drying. After the detrend of SPEI,the slope of dry-wet change in the basin decreases,and the detrend process does not change the trend distribution of SPEI,but only affects the range of dry-wet change in the basin.The trend change of meteorological factors can affect the trend and grade of dry-wet change in the basin. The order of influencing factors of dry-wet change in Huaihe River Basin from strong to weak is temperature,sunshine duration,wind speed and relative humidity.
引文
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[2]MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Eishth Conference on Applied Climatology. Anaheim,California:American Meteorological Society,1993.
[3]VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGERIA S,LOPEZMORENO J I. A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[4]ZHU Ye,WANG Wen,SINGH V P,et al. Combined use of meteorological drought indices at multi-time scales for improving hydrological drought detection[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2016,571:1058-1068.
[5]VICENTE-SERRANO S M,GARCIA-HERRERA R,BARRIOPEDRO D, et al. The westerly index as complementary indicator of the North Atlantic oscillation in explaining drought variability across Europe[J].Climate Dynamics,2016,47(1/2/3/4):845-863.
[6]陈子燊,黄强,刘曾美. 1962—2007年广东干湿时空变化特征分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):469-476.(CHEN Zishen,HUANG Qiang,LIU Zengmei. Analyzing the spatial-temporal variation of wet and dry spells during1962-2007 in Guangdong province[J]. Advances in Water Science,2013,24(4):469-476.(in Chinese))
[7]刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.(LIU Ke,JIANG Dabang. Analysis of dryness/wetness over China using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on two evapotranspiration algorithms[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(1):23-36.(in Chinese))
[8]ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nation,1998.
[9]谢平,陈晓宏,刘丙军.湛江地区适宜参考作物蒸发蒸腾量计算模型分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):6-9.(XIE Ping,CHEN Xiaohong,LIU Bingjun. Analysis of appropriate calculation models for reference crop evapotranspiration in Zhanjiang[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2008,24(5):6-9.(in Chinese))
[10]王苓如,薛联青,王思琪,等.气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势[J].水资源保护,2015,31(3):57-62.(WANG Lingru,XUE Lianqing,WANG Siqi,et al. Evolutionary tendency of water resources in the basin above Hongze Lake under the condition of climate change[J]. Water Resources Protection,2015,31(3):57-62.(in Chinese))
[11]薛联青,朱祎真,王思琪,等.基于投影寻踪的湖泊生态健康评价[J].水资源保护,2016,32(2):67-72.(XUE Lianqing,ZHU Yizhen,WANG Siqi,et al. Lake ecosystem health assessment based on projection pursuit[J]. Water Resources Protection,2016,32(2):67-72.(in Chinese))
[12]ZHANG Jie,SUN Fubao,XU Jijun,et al. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China(1961-2013)on potential evaporation model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016,43(1):206-213.
[13]MAO Y,NIJSSEN B,LETTENMAIER D P. Is climate change implicated in the 2013-2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015,42(8):2805-2813.
[14]REN Lei,XUE Lianqing,LIU Yuanhong,et al. Study on variations in climatic variables and their influence on runoff in the Manas River Basin,China[J]. Water,2017,9(4):258.