河北省潜在蒸散量时空变化特征及气候影响因素分析
|
摘要
潜在蒸散量是确定作物需水量的重要依据和基础,准确估算和科学分析其气象影响因素,对于优化调整农业种植结构及合理配置水土资源具有重要意义。根据河北省及相邻行政区内24个气象站点1960-2016年的逐日气象数据,采用联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散量(ET0),利用敏感系数和贡献率对ET0变化的气候影响因素进行分析,结果表明:近57年来河北省ET0多年平均值为1 095.70mm,整体呈显著下降趋势,平均下降幅度为-8.91mm/(10a);ET0年内变化率夏季最高,冬季最低;ET0空间分布大致自西向东呈半环状递减趋势,四季与年尺度格局基本一致。河北省年平均ET0对相对湿度表现为负敏感,对其他气象因子表现为正敏感。ET0年变化对各气象因子的敏感程度依次为相对湿度>最高气温>平均风速>日照时数>平均气温>最低气温,其变化对气象因子的敏感性存在空间差异。平均风速是河北省ET0全年及春、秋、冬三季变化的主导因子,日照时数为夏季ET0变化的主导因子。空间分布上,西北部地区ET0变化的主导因子为平均气温,东北部地区为日照时数,中南部及沿海地区ET0变化的主导因子为平均风速。该研究成果可为水资源的优化配置及区域干旱评价提供一定的理论支撑。
The potential evapotranspiration is an important basis for determining the crop water demand.Accurate estimation and attribution its meteorological influencing factors are of great significances for optimizing the adjustment of agricultural planting structure and rational allocation of water and soil resources.The spatiotemporal variations of potential evapotranspiration and its climate influencing factors in Hebei Province were investigated based on daily weather data from 1960-2016 at 24 meteorological stations in Hebei Province and adjacent administrative regions,Penman-Monteith formula sensitivity coefficient,and contribution rate.Results showed that the average ET0 in Hebei Province was 1095.70 mm in the past 57 years.It showed an overall downward trend with an average magnitude of-8.905 mm/(10 a).The ET0 change rate of was the highest in summer season and the lowest in winter season.The spatial distribution showed a general semi-circular decreasing trend from west to east,and its seasonal variations were basically consistent with that of annual scale.The annual average ET0 was negatively sensitive to relative humidity and positively to other meteorological factors.The sensitivity of each meteorological factor was:relative humidity>maximum temperature>average wind speed>sunshine hours>average temperature>minimum temperature.The average wind speed was the dominant factor for the change of ET0 in the whole year and in spring,autumn and winter seasons.Sunshine hours were the dominant factor for the change of summer ET0.In terms of spatial distribution,the dominant factor of ET0 variation in the northwestern region was the average temperature,the northeastern region the sunshine hours,and the central and southern regions the average wind speed.The results can provide theoretical supports for the optimal allocation of water resources and regional drought assessment.
The potential evapotranspiration is an important basis for determining the crop water demand.Accurate estimation and attribution its meteorological influencing factors are of great significances for optimizing the adjustment of agricultural planting structure and rational allocation of water and soil resources.The spatiotemporal variations of potential evapotranspiration and its climate influencing factors in Hebei Province were investigated based on daily weather data from 1960-2016 at 24 meteorological stations in Hebei Province and adjacent administrative regions,Penman-Monteith formula sensitivity coefficient,and contribution rate.Results showed that the average ET0 in Hebei Province was 1095.70 mm in the past 57 years.It showed an overall downward trend with an average magnitude of-8.905 mm/(10 a).The ET0 change rate of was the highest in summer season and the lowest in winter season.The spatial distribution showed a general semi-circular decreasing trend from west to east,and its seasonal variations were basically consistent with that of annual scale.The annual average ET0 was negatively sensitive to relative humidity and positively to other meteorological factors.The sensitivity of each meteorological factor was:relative humidity>maximum temperature>average wind speed>sunshine hours>average temperature>minimum temperature.The average wind speed was the dominant factor for the change of ET0 in the whole year and in spring,autumn and winter seasons.Sunshine hours were the dominant factor for the change of summer ET0.In terms of spatial distribution,the dominant factor of ET0 variation in the northwestern region was the average temperature,the northeastern region the sunshine hours,and the central and southern regions the average wind speed.The results can provide theoretical supports for the optimal allocation of water resources and regional drought assessment.
引文
[1]李媛,谢应忠,王亚娟.宁夏中部干旱带潜在蒸散量变化及影响因素[J].生态学报,2016,36(15):4680-4688.(LI Y,XIE Y Z,WANG Y J.Changes of potential evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the arid zone of central Ningxia[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(15):4680-4688.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201501060035.
[2]丁一汇.中国气候变化科学概论[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:128.(DING Y H.Introduction to China′s climate change science[M].Beijing:Meteorology Press,2008:128.(in Chinese))
[3]THOMAS A.Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China.[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,20(4):381-396.DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(20000330)20:4<381::AID-JOC477>3.0.CO;2-K.
[4]王健,吕新,王江丽.北疆地区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):63-69.(WANG J,LYU X,WANG J L.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration in northern Xinjiang[J].Journal of arid meteorology,2015,33(1):63-69.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-01-0063.
[5]杨艳娟,曹经福,熊明明,等.影响海河流域参考作物蒸散量的气象因子定量分析[J].干旱气象,2017,35(3):367-373.(YANG Y J,CAO J F,XIONG M M,et al.Quantitative analysis of meteorological factors affecting reference crop evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin[J].Journal of arid meteorology,2017,35(3):367-373.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-03-0367.
[6]王鹏涛,延军平,蒋冲,等.华北平原参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5589-5599.(WANG P T,YAN J P,JIANG C,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the North China Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(19):5589-5599.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201312022869.
[7]PETERSON T C,GOLUBEV V S,GROISMAN P Y.Evaporation losing its strength[J].Nature,1995,377(6551):687-688.DOI:10.1038/377687b0.
[8]RODERICK M L,FARQUHAR G D.The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50Years[J].Science,2002,298(5597):1410-1411.DOI:10.1126/science.1075390.
[9]张可慧,刘剑锋,刘芳圆,等.河北省潜在蒸发量计算与变化趋势分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(6):75-78.(ZHANG K H,LIU J F,LIU F Y,et al.Analysis of potential evaporation calculation and change trend in Hebei Province[J].Geography and Geographic Information Science,2010,26(6):75-78.(in Chinese))DOI:cnki:sun:dlgt.0.2010-06-020.
[10]董旭光,顾伟宗,王静,等.影响山东参考作物蒸散量变化的气象因素定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):810-823.(DONG X G,GU W Z,WANG J,et al.Quantitative analysis of climate factors for potential evapotranspiration changes in Shandong[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(5):810-823.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.05.009.
[11]刘昌明,张丹.中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):579-588.(LIU C M,ZHANG D.Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological influencing factors in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):579-588.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11821/xb201105001.
[12]丛振涛,倪广恒,杨大文,等.“蒸发悖论”在中国的规律分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(2):147-152.(CONG Z T,NI G H,YANG D W,et al.Analysis of the law of"Evaporation Paradox"in China[J].Progress of Hydrology,2008,19(2):147-152.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2008.02.001.
[13]姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙.河南省参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其气候影响分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):14-22.(JI X J,ZHU Y Y,GU W L.Analysis on trends in annual reference crop evapotranspiration and its impact climatic factors in Henan Province during1971to 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(1):14-22.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.01.003.
[14]王荣英,李新,陈瑞敏,等.衡水市参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及其气候成因[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):294-300.(WANG R Y,LI X,CHEN RM,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Hengshui[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(3):294-300.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.03.007.
[15]普宗朝,张山清.近48年新疆夏半年参考作物蒸散量时空变化[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):67-72.(PUZ C,ZHANG S Q.Study on spatial-temporal variation characteristic of summer half year ET 0in recent 48years in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(1):67-72.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.01.013.
[16]MCCUEN R H.sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1974,10(3):486-497.DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1974.tb00590.x.
[17]曾丽红,宋开山,张柏,等.东北地区参考作物蒸散量对主要气象要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):11-18.(ZENG L H,SONG K S,ZHANG B,et al.Sensitive analysis on reference evapotranspiration to key meteorological factors in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometerology,2013,31(1):11-18.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.01.003.
[18]曹雯,申双和,段春锋.西北地区近49年生长季参考作物蒸散量的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(3):375-381.(CAO W,SHEN S H,DUAN C F.Sensitivity analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration in the growing season of Northwest China in Recent 49Years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(3):375-381.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.03.010.
[19]刘勤,严昌荣,赵彩霞,等.黄河流域日潜在蒸散量变化及气象敏感要素分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(17):157-166.(LIU Q,YAN C R,ZHAO C X,et al.Analysis of potential evapotranspiration and analysis of meteorological sensitive factors in the Yellow River Basin[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2014,30(17):157-166.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.17.021.
[20]王晓东,马晓群,许莹,等.淮河流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及主要气象因子的贡献分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(6):661-667.(WANG X D,MA X Q,XU Y,et al.Analysis of variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration and contribution of main meteorological factors in Huaihe River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(6):661-667.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.06.007.
[21]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.(CHE S J,LI C Q,SHEN S H.Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought and flood in Hebei Province in recent 41 Years(1965-2005)Based on SPI[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):137-143.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.01.027.
[22]邹海平,陈汇林,田光辉,.海南岛参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(1):18-26.(ZOU H P,CHEN H L,TIAN G H,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics and causes of reference crop evapotranspiration in Hainan Island[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(1):18-26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.003.
[23]李春强.河北省近35年(1965-1999年)参考作物蒸散量的时空变化[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(4):414-419.(LI C Q.Temporal and spatial variation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Hebei Province in the past 35years(1965-1999)[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(4):414-419.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2008.04.008.
[24]李丽君,刘玉甫,王蓓,等.浅谈采用彭曼-蒙特斯公式计算参照作物需水量[J].中国西部科技,2008,7(15):9-10.(LI L J,LIU Y F,WANG B,et al.Discussion on calculating reference crop water requirement by using Penman-Montes Formula[J].Western China Science and Technology,2008,7(15):9-10.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6396.2008.15.004.
[25]梁丽乔,李丽娟,张丽,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5.(LIANG L Q,LI L J,ZHANG L,et al.Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(5):1-5.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1002-6819.2008.05.001.
[26]赵彩霞,梅旭荣,居辉,等.黄淮海平原各农业亚区潜在蒸散量变化及其对气候要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):570-577.(ZHAO C X,MEIX R,JU H,et al.Changes of potential evapotranspiration and sensitivity to climatic factors in various agricultural sub-regions of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(5):570-577.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.05.006.
[27]钱多,查天山,吴斌,等.毛乌素沙地参考作物蒸散量变化特征与成因分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):1966-1974.(QIAN D,ZHA T S,WU B,et al.Analysis of variation characteristics and genesis of reference crop evapotranspiration in Mu Us Sandland[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(6):1966-1974.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201510182101.
[28]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-66.(WEI F Y.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:Meteorology Press,2007:63-66.(in Chinese))
[29]汤国安,杨昕,等.地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科技出版社,2012:289-291.(TANG GA,YANG X,et al.GIS spatial analysis experiment tutorial[M].Beijing:Science and Technology Press,2012:289-291.(in Chinese))
[30]张素云.近47a河北省风速演变特征[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.(ZHANG S Y.Characteristics of wind speed evolution in Hebei Province in recent47a[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,2011.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7666/d.y1891447.
[31]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.(RENG Y,GUO J,XU M Z,et al.Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century.Acta Meterologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2005.06.011.
[32]马晓燕.外部强迫因子对气候变化影响的数值试验研究[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所,2002.(MA X Y.Numerical experimental study on the influence of external forced factors on climate change[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics,2002.(in Chinese))
[33]赵宗慈,王绍武,徐影,等.近百年我国地表气温趋势变化的可能原因[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):808-817.(ZHAO Z C,WANG S W,XU Y,et al.Possible reasons for the change of surface temperature trend in China in the past 100years[J].Climate and environmental research,2005,10(4):808-817.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.012.
[34]曹永强,高璐,袁立婷,等.辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1422-1429.(CAO Y Q,GAO L,YUAN L T,et al.Analysis of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity law in Liaoning Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1422-1429.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sg s.2017.09.015.
[2]丁一汇.中国气候变化科学概论[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:128.(DING Y H.Introduction to China′s climate change science[M].Beijing:Meteorology Press,2008:128.(in Chinese))
[3]THOMAS A.Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China.[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,20(4):381-396.DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(20000330)20:4<381::AID-JOC477>3.0.CO;2-K.
[4]王健,吕新,王江丽.北疆地区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):63-69.(WANG J,LYU X,WANG J L.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration in northern Xinjiang[J].Journal of arid meteorology,2015,33(1):63-69.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-01-0063.
[5]杨艳娟,曹经福,熊明明,等.影响海河流域参考作物蒸散量的气象因子定量分析[J].干旱气象,2017,35(3):367-373.(YANG Y J,CAO J F,XIONG M M,et al.Quantitative analysis of meteorological factors affecting reference crop evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin[J].Journal of arid meteorology,2017,35(3):367-373.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-03-0367.
[6]王鹏涛,延军平,蒋冲,等.华北平原参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5589-5599.(WANG P T,YAN J P,JIANG C,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the North China Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(19):5589-5599.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201312022869.
[7]PETERSON T C,GOLUBEV V S,GROISMAN P Y.Evaporation losing its strength[J].Nature,1995,377(6551):687-688.DOI:10.1038/377687b0.
[8]RODERICK M L,FARQUHAR G D.The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50Years[J].Science,2002,298(5597):1410-1411.DOI:10.1126/science.1075390.
[9]张可慧,刘剑锋,刘芳圆,等.河北省潜在蒸发量计算与变化趋势分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(6):75-78.(ZHANG K H,LIU J F,LIU F Y,et al.Analysis of potential evaporation calculation and change trend in Hebei Province[J].Geography and Geographic Information Science,2010,26(6):75-78.(in Chinese))DOI:cnki:sun:dlgt.0.2010-06-020.
[10]董旭光,顾伟宗,王静,等.影响山东参考作物蒸散量变化的气象因素定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):810-823.(DONG X G,GU W Z,WANG J,et al.Quantitative analysis of climate factors for potential evapotranspiration changes in Shandong[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(5):810-823.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.05.009.
[11]刘昌明,张丹.中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):579-588.(LIU C M,ZHANG D.Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological influencing factors in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):579-588.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11821/xb201105001.
[12]丛振涛,倪广恒,杨大文,等.“蒸发悖论”在中国的规律分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(2):147-152.(CONG Z T,NI G H,YANG D W,et al.Analysis of the law of"Evaporation Paradox"in China[J].Progress of Hydrology,2008,19(2):147-152.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2008.02.001.
[13]姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙.河南省参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其气候影响分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):14-22.(JI X J,ZHU Y Y,GU W L.Analysis on trends in annual reference crop evapotranspiration and its impact climatic factors in Henan Province during1971to 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(1):14-22.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.01.003.
[14]王荣英,李新,陈瑞敏,等.衡水市参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及其气候成因[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):294-300.(WANG R Y,LI X,CHEN RM,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Hengshui[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(3):294-300.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.03.007.
[15]普宗朝,张山清.近48年新疆夏半年参考作物蒸散量时空变化[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):67-72.(PUZ C,ZHANG S Q.Study on spatial-temporal variation characteristic of summer half year ET 0in recent 48years in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(1):67-72.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.01.013.
[16]MCCUEN R H.sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1974,10(3):486-497.DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1974.tb00590.x.
[17]曾丽红,宋开山,张柏,等.东北地区参考作物蒸散量对主要气象要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):11-18.(ZENG L H,SONG K S,ZHANG B,et al.Sensitive analysis on reference evapotranspiration to key meteorological factors in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometerology,2013,31(1):11-18.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.01.003.
[18]曹雯,申双和,段春锋.西北地区近49年生长季参考作物蒸散量的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(3):375-381.(CAO W,SHEN S H,DUAN C F.Sensitivity analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration in the growing season of Northwest China in Recent 49Years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(3):375-381.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2011.03.010.
[19]刘勤,严昌荣,赵彩霞,等.黄河流域日潜在蒸散量变化及气象敏感要素分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(17):157-166.(LIU Q,YAN C R,ZHAO C X,et al.Analysis of potential evapotranspiration and analysis of meteorological sensitive factors in the Yellow River Basin[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2014,30(17):157-166.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.17.021.
[20]王晓东,马晓群,许莹,等.淮河流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及主要气象因子的贡献分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(6):661-667.(WANG X D,MA X Q,XU Y,et al.Analysis of variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration and contribution of main meteorological factors in Huaihe River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(6):661-667.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.06.007.
[21]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.(CHE S J,LI C Q,SHEN S H.Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought and flood in Hebei Province in recent 41 Years(1965-2005)Based on SPI[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):137-143.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.01.027.
[22]邹海平,陈汇林,田光辉,.海南岛参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(1):18-26.(ZOU H P,CHEN H L,TIAN G H,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics and causes of reference crop evapotranspiration in Hainan Island[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(1):18-26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.003.
[23]李春强.河北省近35年(1965-1999年)参考作物蒸散量的时空变化[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(4):414-419.(LI C Q.Temporal and spatial variation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Hebei Province in the past 35years(1965-1999)[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(4):414-419.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2008.04.008.
[24]李丽君,刘玉甫,王蓓,等.浅谈采用彭曼-蒙特斯公式计算参照作物需水量[J].中国西部科技,2008,7(15):9-10.(LI L J,LIU Y F,WANG B,et al.Discussion on calculating reference crop water requirement by using Penman-Montes Formula[J].Western China Science and Technology,2008,7(15):9-10.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6396.2008.15.004.
[25]梁丽乔,李丽娟,张丽,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5.(LIANG L Q,LI L J,ZHANG L,et al.Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(5):1-5.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1002-6819.2008.05.001.
[26]赵彩霞,梅旭荣,居辉,等.黄淮海平原各农业亚区潜在蒸散量变化及其对气候要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):570-577.(ZHAO C X,MEIX R,JU H,et al.Changes of potential evapotranspiration and sensitivity to climatic factors in various agricultural sub-regions of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(5):570-577.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.05.006.
[27]钱多,查天山,吴斌,等.毛乌素沙地参考作物蒸散量变化特征与成因分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):1966-1974.(QIAN D,ZHA T S,WU B,et al.Analysis of variation characteristics and genesis of reference crop evapotranspiration in Mu Us Sandland[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(6):1966-1974.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201510182101.
[28]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-66.(WEI F Y.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:Meteorology Press,2007:63-66.(in Chinese))
[29]汤国安,杨昕,等.地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科技出版社,2012:289-291.(TANG GA,YANG X,et al.GIS spatial analysis experiment tutorial[M].Beijing:Science and Technology Press,2012:289-291.(in Chinese))
[30]张素云.近47a河北省风速演变特征[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.(ZHANG S Y.Characteristics of wind speed evolution in Hebei Province in recent47a[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,2011.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7666/d.y1891447.
[31]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.(RENG Y,GUO J,XU M Z,et al.Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century.Acta Meterologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2005.06.011.
[32]马晓燕.外部强迫因子对气候变化影响的数值试验研究[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所,2002.(MA X Y.Numerical experimental study on the influence of external forced factors on climate change[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics,2002.(in Chinese))
[33]赵宗慈,王绍武,徐影,等.近百年我国地表气温趋势变化的可能原因[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):808-817.(ZHAO Z C,WANG S W,XU Y,et al.Possible reasons for the change of surface temperature trend in China in the past 100years[J].Climate and environmental research,2005,10(4):808-817.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.012.
[34]曹永强,高璐,袁立婷,等.辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1422-1429.(CAO Y Q,GAO L,YUAN L T,et al.Analysis of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity law in Liaoning Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1422-1429.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sg s.2017.09.015.