基于专利的技术融合趋势的驱动因素研究
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摘要
[目的/意义]科学客观地分析技术融合趋势的驱动因素,不仅指导企业通过技术融合寻求技术机会、帮助企业制定技术战略以及提高自主创新能力具有重要的理论价值,而且对于引导新兴产业的发展也具有重要指导意义。[方法/过程]通过构建Probit模型来分析各技术驱动因素对两种技术融合趋势的影响程度,利用无人机领域的专利数据进行实证分析。[结果/结论]研究结果表明,专利的国家跨度越少、技术吸收或扩散的速度越快、技术范围和技术领域的规模越广、具有引用关系的作者数量和专利权人数量越多以及政府与企业之间的合作越强,越容易导致互补性融合等。
[Purpose/Significance]Scientific and objective analysis of the driving factors and future trend of technology fusion is of great theoretical values to enterprises in guiding them to identify technical opportunities via technology fusion,helping them to develop technology strategy and improving their capability of independent innovation,and also is of profound guiding significance to emerging industries in directing their development.[Method/Process]This paper constructs a Probit model to analyze the impact of each technology driving factor on the convergence trend of the two technologies,and conducts an empirical analysis using the patent data in the field of UAV. [Result/Conclusion]The results showthat the less the patent country span is,the faster the technology absorps or diffuses,the larger the scale of the technology range and field is,the higher the quantities of authors and the patentees that have the citation relationship are,and the stronger the government-enterprise cooperation is will more easily lead to the complementary fusion.
[Purpose/Significance]Scientific and objective analysis of the driving factors and future trend of technology fusion is of great theoretical values to enterprises in guiding them to identify technical opportunities via technology fusion,helping them to develop technology strategy and improving their capability of independent innovation,and also is of profound guiding significance to emerging industries in directing their development.[Method/Process]This paper constructs a Probit model to analyze the impact of each technology driving factor on the convergence trend of the two technologies,and conducts an empirical analysis using the patent data in the field of UAV. [Result/Conclusion]The results showthat the less the patent country span is,the faster the technology absorps or diffuses,the larger the scale of the technology range and field is,the higher the quantities of authors and the patentees that have the citation relationship are,and the stronger the government-enterprise cooperation is will more easily lead to the complementary fusion.
引文
[1]Pennings J,Puranam P.Market convergence&firm strategy:Newdirections for theory and research[C]//ECIS Conference.The Future of Innovation Studies.Eindhoven,Netherlands,2001
[2]Br9ring S,Leker J.Industry convergence and its implications for the front end of innovation:a problem of absorptive capacity[J].Creat.Innov.Manag,2007,16(2):165-175.
[3]Nordmann A.Converging Technologies:Shaping the Future of European Societies.Office for Official Publications of the European Communities(EUR 21357)(D).Luxembourg:2004.
[4]Rosenberg N.Technological change in the machine tool industry1840-1910[J].The Journal of Economic History,1963,23(4):414-443.
[5]Karvonen M,Lehtovaara M,Kassi T.Build-up of understanding of technological convergence:Evidence from printed intelligence industry[J].International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management,2012,9(3):1094-1107.
[6]Adner R,Levinthal D.Technology speciation and the path of emerging technologies[J].Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies,2000:55-74.
[7]Hacklin F,Marxt C,Fahrni F.Coevolutionary cycles of convergence:An extrapolation from the ICT industry[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2009,76(6):723-736.
[8]Curran C S,Leker J.Patent indicators for monitoring convergence—examples from NFF and ICT[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2011(78):256-273.
[9]Hacklin F.Management of Convergence in Innovaton:Strategies and Capabilities for Value Creation Beyond Blurring Industry Boundaries[M].Springer,2007.
[10]Xing W,Ye X,Kui L.Measuring convergence of China's ICT industry:An input-output analysis[J].Telecommunications Policy,2011,35(4):301-313.
[11]Geum Y,Kim C,Lee S,et al.Technology convergence of IT and BT:Evidence from Patent Analysis[J].ETRI J,2012(34):439-449.
[12]Palmer C.Structures and strategies of interdisciplinary science[J].Am.Soc.Inf.Sci.1999(50):242-253.
[13]李丫丫,赵玉林.基于专利的技术融合分析方法及其应用[J].科学学研究,2016(2):203-211.
[14]Curran C S,Broring S,Leker J.Anticipating converging industries using publicly available data[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2010,77(3):385-395.,
[15]Seongkyoon J,Sungki L.What drives technology convergence?Exploring the influence of technological and resource allocation contexts[J].Eng.Technol.Manage.,2015(36):78-96.
[16]Weaver B.Research proposal:industry convergence—driving forces,factors and consequences[J].Nordic Academy of Management(NFF),2007:1-20.
[17]Pennings J,Puranam P.Market convergence&firm strategy:newdirections for theory and research[C]//ECIS Conference.the Future of Innovation Studies.Eindhoven,Netherlands,2001.
[18]Br9ring S,Leker J.Industry convergence and its implications for the front end of innovation:a problem of absorptive capacity[J].Creat.Innov.Manag,2007,16(2):165-175.
[19]Duysters G,Hagedoorn J.Technological convergence in the IT industry:the role of strategic technology alliances and technological competencies[J].Int.J.Econ.Bus,1998,5(3):338-368.
[20]Bore's C,Saurina C,Torres R.Technological convergence:A strategic perspective[J].Technovation,2003(23):1-13.
[2]Br9ring S,Leker J.Industry convergence and its implications for the front end of innovation:a problem of absorptive capacity[J].Creat.Innov.Manag,2007,16(2):165-175.
[3]Nordmann A.Converging Technologies:Shaping the Future of European Societies.Office for Official Publications of the European Communities(EUR 21357)(D).Luxembourg:2004.
[4]Rosenberg N.Technological change in the machine tool industry1840-1910[J].The Journal of Economic History,1963,23(4):414-443.
[5]Karvonen M,Lehtovaara M,Kassi T.Build-up of understanding of technological convergence:Evidence from printed intelligence industry[J].International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management,2012,9(3):1094-1107.
[6]Adner R,Levinthal D.Technology speciation and the path of emerging technologies[J].Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies,2000:55-74.
[7]Hacklin F,Marxt C,Fahrni F.Coevolutionary cycles of convergence:An extrapolation from the ICT industry[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2009,76(6):723-736.
[8]Curran C S,Leker J.Patent indicators for monitoring convergence—examples from NFF and ICT[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2011(78):256-273.
[9]Hacklin F.Management of Convergence in Innovaton:Strategies and Capabilities for Value Creation Beyond Blurring Industry Boundaries[M].Springer,2007.
[10]Xing W,Ye X,Kui L.Measuring convergence of China's ICT industry:An input-output analysis[J].Telecommunications Policy,2011,35(4):301-313.
[11]Geum Y,Kim C,Lee S,et al.Technology convergence of IT and BT:Evidence from Patent Analysis[J].ETRI J,2012(34):439-449.
[12]Palmer C.Structures and strategies of interdisciplinary science[J].Am.Soc.Inf.Sci.1999(50):242-253.
[13]李丫丫,赵玉林.基于专利的技术融合分析方法及其应用[J].科学学研究,2016(2):203-211.
[14]Curran C S,Broring S,Leker J.Anticipating converging industries using publicly available data[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2010,77(3):385-395.,
[15]Seongkyoon J,Sungki L.What drives technology convergence?Exploring the influence of technological and resource allocation contexts[J].Eng.Technol.Manage.,2015(36):78-96.
[16]Weaver B.Research proposal:industry convergence—driving forces,factors and consequences[J].Nordic Academy of Management(NFF),2007:1-20.
[17]Pennings J,Puranam P.Market convergence&firm strategy:newdirections for theory and research[C]//ECIS Conference.the Future of Innovation Studies.Eindhoven,Netherlands,2001.
[18]Br9ring S,Leker J.Industry convergence and its implications for the front end of innovation:a problem of absorptive capacity[J].Creat.Innov.Manag,2007,16(2):165-175.
[19]Duysters G,Hagedoorn J.Technological convergence in the IT industry:the role of strategic technology alliances and technological competencies[J].Int.J.Econ.Bus,1998,5(3):338-368.
[20]Bore's C,Saurina C,Torres R.Technological convergence:A strategic perspective[J].Technovation,2003(23):1-13.