安徽省对外贸易的生态足迹及其影响因素研究
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摘要
为了解安徽省?生态负担?的国际转移情况,探索对外贸易的可持续发展方式,文章采用生态足迹法,基于16地市1999-2016年的面板数据对安徽省贸易生态足迹进行了测度,运用扩展STIRPAT模型研究了安徽省北、中、南三大区域对外贸易生态影响的差异性。结果表明:安徽省的对外贸易生态足迹出现逆差,弹性系数波动较大;除产业结构外,其他驱动因素对安徽省对外贸易的生态足迹影响为正,北、中、南三大区域划分下驱动因素的作用产生了不同程度的变化。文章将安徽省内区域划分为稳定发展类、临界演化类和转型发展类,并且针对不同区域提出?靶向?生态政策,提出了优化对外贸易商品结构与贸易增长方式、大力发展循环经济、积极开发替代能源与可再生能源等对策建议。
In order to understand the international transfer of Anhui's "ecological burden" and explore the sustainable development mode of foreign trade, the work uses ecological footprint method to measure Anhui's trade ecological footprint based on panel data of 16 cities from 1999 to 2016, and adopts extended STIRPAT model to study the regional differences of foreign trade ecological impact under the three major regional divisions of north,center and south.The results show that Anhui's foreign trade ecological footprint is in deficit and the elasticity coefficient fluctuates greatly.Apart from the industrial structure, other driving factors have a positive impact on Anhui's foreign trade ecological footprint, while the role of driving factors under the three major regional divisions of north, center and south has changed to varying degrees.This work divides the regions in Anhui into stable development, critical evolution and transition development. Aiming at different regions, "targeted" ecological policies are put forward, and countermeasures and suggestions have also been proposed such as optimizing the commodity structure of foreign trade and the mode of trade growth, vigorously developing circular economy, and actively developing alternative energy and renewable energy.
In order to understand the international transfer of Anhui's "ecological burden" and explore the sustainable development mode of foreign trade, the work uses ecological footprint method to measure Anhui's trade ecological footprint based on panel data of 16 cities from 1999 to 2016, and adopts extended STIRPAT model to study the regional differences of foreign trade ecological impact under the three major regional divisions of north,center and south.The results show that Anhui's foreign trade ecological footprint is in deficit and the elasticity coefficient fluctuates greatly.Apart from the industrial structure, other driving factors have a positive impact on Anhui's foreign trade ecological footprint, while the role of driving factors under the three major regional divisions of north, center and south has changed to varying degrees.This work divides the regions in Anhui into stable development, critical evolution and transition development. Aiming at different regions, "targeted" ecological policies are put forward, and countermeasures and suggestions have also been proposed such as optimizing the commodity structure of foreign trade and the mode of trade growth, vigorously developing circular economy, and actively developing alternative energy and renewable energy.
引文
[1]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法的理论解析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):69-78.
[2]张衍广,林振山,李茂玲,梁仁君.基于EMD的中国生态足迹与生态承载力的动力学预测[J].生态学报,2008,28(10):5027-5032.
[3]史丹,王俊杰.基于生态足迹的中国生态压力与生态效率测度与评价[J].中国工业经济,2016(5):5-21.
[4]张可云,傅帅雄,张文彬.基于改进生态足迹模型的中国31个省级区域生态承载力实证研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(9):1084-1089.
[5]高阳,冯喆,王羊,李双成.基于能值改进生态足迹模型的全国省区生态经济系统分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(6):1089-1096.
[6]张靓,曾辉,赫胜彬.基于改进模型的1992-2010年中国省域生态足迹核算[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(8):1365-1370.
[7]张爱菊,张白汝,向书坚.中部6省生态足迹的测算与比较分析[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(4):625-631.
[8]陈丽萍,杨忠直.中国进出口贸易中的生态足迹[J].世界经济研究,2005(5):8-11.
[9]刘建伟.1991-2008年中国能源贸易生态足迹的动态测度与分析[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,32(2):22-26.
[10]卢长庚,赵翌辰.基于能值理论的中国进出口贸易生态足迹实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(12):117-123.
[11]张学勤,陈成忠.中国国际贸易及其生态影响的动态分析[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,34(5):601-608.
[12]李昭华,汪凌志.中国对外贸易自然资本流向及其影响因素--基于I-O模型的生态足迹分析[J].中国工业经济,2012(7):31-43.
[13]李昭华,傅伟.中国进出口贸易内涵自然资本的生态足迹分析[J].中国工业经济,2013(9):5-18.
[14]程中海,罗芳.新疆进出口贸易生态足迹动态分析[J].新疆社会科学,2013(6):52-59.
[15]徐中民,程国栋.中国人口和富裕对环境的影响[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(5):767-714.
[16]林黎阳,许丽忠.福建省生态足迹驱动因子分析[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,4(30):102-108.
[17]WACKERNAL M,REES W E.Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital:Economics from an ecological footprint perspective[J].Ecological Economics,1997,20(1):3-24.
[18]Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,et al.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[19]WACKERNAGEL M,ONISTO L,LINARES A C,et al.Ecological footprints of nations.How much nature do they use?-How much nature do they have?[EB/OL].http://www.ecouncil.ac.cr/rio/focus/report/english/footprint/.(1997-06-21).
[20]WACKERNAGEL M,MONFREDA C,ERBKARL-HEINZ,HABERL H,SCHULZ N B.Ecological footprint time series of Austria,the Philippines,and South Korea for 1961-1999:Comparing the conventional approach to an‘actual land area’approach[J].Land Use Policy,2004(21):261-269.
[21]房林,邹卫星.多种单位根检验法的比较研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(1):151-160.
[2]张衍广,林振山,李茂玲,梁仁君.基于EMD的中国生态足迹与生态承载力的动力学预测[J].生态学报,2008,28(10):5027-5032.
[3]史丹,王俊杰.基于生态足迹的中国生态压力与生态效率测度与评价[J].中国工业经济,2016(5):5-21.
[4]张可云,傅帅雄,张文彬.基于改进生态足迹模型的中国31个省级区域生态承载力实证研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(9):1084-1089.
[5]高阳,冯喆,王羊,李双成.基于能值改进生态足迹模型的全国省区生态经济系统分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(6):1089-1096.
[6]张靓,曾辉,赫胜彬.基于改进模型的1992-2010年中国省域生态足迹核算[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(8):1365-1370.
[7]张爱菊,张白汝,向书坚.中部6省生态足迹的测算与比较分析[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(4):625-631.
[8]陈丽萍,杨忠直.中国进出口贸易中的生态足迹[J].世界经济研究,2005(5):8-11.
[9]刘建伟.1991-2008年中国能源贸易生态足迹的动态测度与分析[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,32(2):22-26.
[10]卢长庚,赵翌辰.基于能值理论的中国进出口贸易生态足迹实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2013,43(12):117-123.
[11]张学勤,陈成忠.中国国际贸易及其生态影响的动态分析[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,34(5):601-608.
[12]李昭华,汪凌志.中国对外贸易自然资本流向及其影响因素--基于I-O模型的生态足迹分析[J].中国工业经济,2012(7):31-43.
[13]李昭华,傅伟.中国进出口贸易内涵自然资本的生态足迹分析[J].中国工业经济,2013(9):5-18.
[14]程中海,罗芳.新疆进出口贸易生态足迹动态分析[J].新疆社会科学,2013(6):52-59.
[15]徐中民,程国栋.中国人口和富裕对环境的影响[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(5):767-714.
[16]林黎阳,许丽忠.福建省生态足迹驱动因子分析[J].福建师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,4(30):102-108.
[17]WACKERNAL M,REES W E.Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital:Economics from an ecological footprint perspective[J].Ecological Economics,1997,20(1):3-24.
[18]Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,et al.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[19]WACKERNAGEL M,ONISTO L,LINARES A C,et al.Ecological footprints of nations.How much nature do they use?-How much nature do they have?[EB/OL].http://www.ecouncil.ac.cr/rio/focus/report/english/footprint/.(1997-06-21).
[20]WACKERNAGEL M,MONFREDA C,ERBKARL-HEINZ,HABERL H,SCHULZ N B.Ecological footprint time series of Austria,the Philippines,and South Korea for 1961-1999:Comparing the conventional approach to an‘actual land area’approach[J].Land Use Policy,2004(21):261-269.
[21]房林,邹卫星.多种单位根检验法的比较研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(1):151-160.