陕西省耕地转移对生态系统服务价值的影响
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摘要
基于效用最大化理论构建土地利用转移的经济学分析框架,利用1990—2015年4期的遥感数据,探讨在生态修复工程以及城镇扩张双重背景下陕西省耕地转移对生态系统服务价值的影响机制。研究发现:陕西省耕地主要向经济刺激下的城乡建设用地和生态修复政策驱动下的生态用地转化。城镇扩张对生态系统服务价值具有显著的负向影响,但其边际效应是林草覆盖率的函数;随着退耕还林工程的实施,林草覆盖率的增加可弥补城镇扩张带来的生态系统服务价值损失;当林草覆盖率达到83.7%时,城镇扩张不会对生态系统服务产生影响,此时为退耕还林工程实施的临界水平。2017年陕西省林草覆盖率为68.83%,在保证基本农田不减少的条件下,今后仍需进一步扩大退耕还林规模,以保证区域生态安全并满足生态文明建设的需要。
This study developed a panel threshold model to examine the impact of cultivated land transition due to urban expansion and ecological restoration project on ecosystem service value,according to the economic analysis framework based on land use/land cover change derived from remote sensing data of 1990-2015 in Shaanxi Province. Cultivated land transition has moved in two opposite directions driven by urban expansion and ecological restoration policy. Urban expansion affects negatively and significantly on ecosystem service value, but its marginal effect is a function of the rate of forest and grassland coverage. With the implementation of the Grain for Green project, forest and grassland coverage increase can make up for the loss of the ecosystem service value caused by urban expansion. The rate of forest and grassland coverage is captured by the panel threshold model, which indicates that when this rate reaches 87.3%, urban expansion has no significant impact on the ecosystem service value. In 2017, the rate of forest and grassland coverage in Shaanxi Province was 68.83%. Therefore it is essential for the province to further expand the scale of returning farmland to forest(grass) to ensure regional ecological security and meet the needs of ecological civilization construction while ensuring that the basic farmlands remain unchanged.
This study developed a panel threshold model to examine the impact of cultivated land transition due to urban expansion and ecological restoration project on ecosystem service value,according to the economic analysis framework based on land use/land cover change derived from remote sensing data of 1990-2015 in Shaanxi Province. Cultivated land transition has moved in two opposite directions driven by urban expansion and ecological restoration policy. Urban expansion affects negatively and significantly on ecosystem service value, but its marginal effect is a function of the rate of forest and grassland coverage. With the implementation of the Grain for Green project, forest and grassland coverage increase can make up for the loss of the ecosystem service value caused by urban expansion. The rate of forest and grassland coverage is captured by the panel threshold model, which indicates that when this rate reaches 87.3%, urban expansion has no significant impact on the ecosystem service value. In 2017, the rate of forest and grassland coverage in Shaanxi Province was 68.83%. Therefore it is essential for the province to further expand the scale of returning farmland to forest(grass) to ensure regional ecological security and meet the needs of ecological civilization construction while ensuring that the basic farmlands remain unchanged.
引文
[1]刘永强,龙花楼.长江中游经济带土地利用转型时空格局及其生态服务功能影响[J].经济地理,2017,37(11):161-170.[Liu YQ,Long H L.Study on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use transition and its impact on ecological service function of the middle of Yangtze River economic belt[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(11):161-170.]
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[12]孙黄平,黄震方,徐冬冬,等.泛长三角城市群城镇化与生态环境耦合的空间特征与驱动机制[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):163-170.[Sun S P.Huang Z F,Xu D D,et al.The spatial characteristics and drive mechanism of coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in the Pan Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(2):163-170.]
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[14]赖元长,李贤伟,冯帅,等.退耕还林工程对四川盆周低山丘陵区生态系统服务价值的影响:以洪雅县为例[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):755-768.[Lai Y C,Li X W,Feng S,et al.Impact of Grain for Green Project on ecosystem service value in the hilly region in Sichuan Basin:A case study of Hongya County[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):755-768.]
[15]刘忠,李保国.退耕还林工程实施前后黄土高原地区粮食生产时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(11):1-8.[Liu Z,Li B G.Spatial and temporal changes in grain production before and after implementation of Grain for Green Project in Loess Plateau region[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(11):1-8.]
[16]中国林业网.关于扩大新一轮退耕还林还草规模的通知[EB/OL].(2016-02-25)[2019-05-06].http://www.forestry.gov.cn/main/3031/content-846106.Html.[Chinese Forest.Notice on Expanding the Scale of New Round of Returning Farmland to Forestry and Grass[EB/OL].(2016-02-25)[2019-05-06].http://www.forestry.gov.cn/main/3031/content-846106.Html.]
[17]苏冰倩,王茵茵,上官周平.西北地区新一轮退耕还林还草规模分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(4):59-65.[Su B Q,Wang Y Y,Shangguan Z P.Analysis on the scale of a new period of returning farmland to forestland and grassland in Northwest China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(4):59-65.]
[18]Wang X C,Dong X B,Liu H M,et al.Linking land use change,ecosystem services and human well-being:A case study of the Manas River Basin of Xinjiang,China[J].Ecosystem Services,2017,27:113-123.
[19]喻锋,李晓波,张丽君,等.中国生态用地研究:内涵、分类与时空格局[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4931-4943.[Yu F,Li X B,Zhang L J,et al.Study of ecological land in China:Conception,classification,and spatial-temporal pattern[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14):4931-4943.]
[20]Costanza R,D"Arge R,De Groot R,et al.The value of the world`s ecosystem services and natural capital[J].World Environment,1997,387(6630):253-260.
[21]谢高地,张彩霞,张雷明,等.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(8):1243-1254.[Xie G D,Zhang C X,Zhang L M,et al.Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(8):1243-1254.]
[22]李昕,文婧,林坚.土地城镇化及相关问题研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(8):1042-1049.[Li X,Wen J,Lin J.Review of research on land urbanization and related studies[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(8):1042-1049.]
[23]刘涛,曹广忠.城市用地扩张及驱动力研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(8):927-934.[Liu T,Cao G Z.Progress in urban land expansion and its driving forces[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(8):927-934.]
[24]李子豪.外商直接投资对中国碳排放的门槛效应研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(1):163-174.[Li Z H.Threshold effects of foreign direct investment on China’s carbon emissions[J].Resources Science,2015,37(1):163-174.]
[25]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.[Liu J Y,Kuang W H,Zhang Z X,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(1):3-14.]
[26]任朝霞,杨达源.近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势及对荒漠化的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(4):91-95.[Ren Z X,Yang D Y.Climate change and surface run off change impact on desertification in the arid area of northwest China in resent 50years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2008,22(4):91-95.]
[27]杨锁华,胡守庚,瞿诗进.长江中游地区生态系统服务价值的地形梯度效应[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(3):1-15.[Yang S H,Hu S G,Qu S J.Terrain gradient effect of ecosystem service value in middle reach of Yangtze River,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2018,29(3):1-15.]
[28]哈丽旦·司地克,玉素甫江·如素力,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜.焉耆盆地气候变化和人类活动对生态系统服务价值的影响研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(5):684-694.[Haridan S,Yusufune R,Mamatitulson A.The impact of human activity and climate change on ecosystem services value in the Yanqi Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2016,24(5):684-694.]
[29]陈文思,朱清科,刘蕾蕾,等.陕北半干旱黄土区沙棘人工林的死亡率及适宜地形因子[J].林业科学,2016,52(5):9-16.[Chen W S,Zhu Q K,Liu L L,et al.Mortality and appropriate topographical conditions of seabuckthorn plantation in semi-Arid region of Loess Plateau in North Shaanxi,China[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2016,52(5):9-16.]
[30]陕西省自然资源厅.2018年上半年土地利用现状(年报)[EB/OL].(2018-09-25)[2018-09-30].http://gtzyt.shaanxi.gov.cn/info/1196/40016.htm.[Natural Resources Department of Shaanxi Province.Land Use Status in the First Half of 2018(Annual Report)[EB/OL].(2018-09-25)[2018-09-30].http://gtzyt.shaanxi.gov.cn/info/1196/40016.htm.]
[31]刘芳,张红旗.伊犁新垦区土地利用和地形对表层土壤养分变异性的影响[J].资源科学,2012,34(4):758-768.[Liu F,Zhang H Q.Effects of land use and topographic factors on the variability of soil nutrients in newly reclaimed area in Yili[J].Resources Science,2012,34(4):758-768.]
[2]Chen H Y,Jia B S,Lau S Y.Sustainable urban form for Chinese compact cities:challenges of a rapid urbanized economy[J].Habitat International,2008,32(1):28-40.
[3]郭庆宾,刘静,王涛.武汉城市圈城镇化生态环境响应的时空演变研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):137-143.[Guo Q B,Liu J,Wang T.Spatio-temporal distribution research on the ecological response of urbanization in Wuhan Metropolitan Area[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(2):137-143.]
[4]习近平.加快生态文明体制改革,建设美丽中国[EB/OL].(2017-10-18)[2019-05-06].http://cpc.people.com.cn/19th/n1/2017/1018/c414305-29594512.html.[Xi J P.Speed up the Reform of the Ecological Civilization System and Build a Beautiful China[EB/OL].(2017-10-18)[2019-05-06].http://cpc.people.com.cn/19th/n1/2017/1018/c414305-29594512.html.]
[5]Kindu M,Schneider T,Teketay D,et al.Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,547:137-147.
[6]赵微,闵敏,李俊鹏.土地整理区域生态系统服务价值损益规律研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(7):1415-1422.[Zhao W,Min M,Li J P.Regulation of ecosystem services in land consolidation regions[J].Resources Science,2013,35(7):1415-1422.]
[7]何玲,贾启建,李超,等.基于生态系统服务价值和生态安全格局的土地利用格局模拟[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(3):275-284.[He L,Jia Q,Li C,et al.Land use pattern simulation based on ecosystem service value and ecological security pattern[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(3):275-284.]
[8]Pennington D N,Dalzell B,Nelson E,et al.Cost-effective land use planning:Optimizing land use and land management patterns to maximize social benefits[J].Ecological Economics,2017,139:75-90.
[9]Asadolahia Z,Salmanmahiny A,Sakieh Y,et al.Dynamic tradeoff analysis of multiple ecosystem services under land use change scenarios:Towards putting ecosystem services into planning in Iran[J].Ecological Complexity,2018,36:250-260.
[10]Caviglia-Harris J L,Chambers D,Kahn J R.Taking the U out of Kuznets:A comprehensive analysis of the EKC and environmental degradation[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(4):1149-1159.
[11]方创琳,周成虎,顾朝林,等.特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合效应解析的理论框架及技术路径[J].地理学报,2016,71(4):531-550.[Fang C L,Zhou C H,Gu C L,et al.Theoretical analysis of interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(4):531-550.]
[12]孙黄平,黄震方,徐冬冬,等.泛长三角城市群城镇化与生态环境耦合的空间特征与驱动机制[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):163-170.[Sun S P.Huang Z F,Xu D D,et al.The spatial characteristics and drive mechanism of coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in the Pan Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(2):163-170.]
[13]王庶,岳希明.退耕还林、非农就业与农民增收:基于21省面板数据的双重差分分析[J].经济研究,2017,52(4):106-119.[Wang S,Yue X M.The grain-for-green project,non-farm employment and the growth of farmer income[J].Economic Research Journal,2017,52(4):106-119.]
[14]赖元长,李贤伟,冯帅,等.退耕还林工程对四川盆周低山丘陵区生态系统服务价值的影响:以洪雅县为例[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):755-768.[Lai Y C,Li X W,Feng S,et al.Impact of Grain for Green Project on ecosystem service value in the hilly region in Sichuan Basin:A case study of Hongya County[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):755-768.]
[15]刘忠,李保国.退耕还林工程实施前后黄土高原地区粮食生产时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(11):1-8.[Liu Z,Li B G.Spatial and temporal changes in grain production before and after implementation of Grain for Green Project in Loess Plateau region[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(11):1-8.]
[16]中国林业网.关于扩大新一轮退耕还林还草规模的通知[EB/OL].(2016-02-25)[2019-05-06].http://www.forestry.gov.cn/main/3031/content-846106.Html.[Chinese Forest.Notice on Expanding the Scale of New Round of Returning Farmland to Forestry and Grass[EB/OL].(2016-02-25)[2019-05-06].http://www.forestry.gov.cn/main/3031/content-846106.Html.]
[17]苏冰倩,王茵茵,上官周平.西北地区新一轮退耕还林还草规模分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(4):59-65.[Su B Q,Wang Y Y,Shangguan Z P.Analysis on the scale of a new period of returning farmland to forestland and grassland in Northwest China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(4):59-65.]
[18]Wang X C,Dong X B,Liu H M,et al.Linking land use change,ecosystem services and human well-being:A case study of the Manas River Basin of Xinjiang,China[J].Ecosystem Services,2017,27:113-123.
[19]喻锋,李晓波,张丽君,等.中国生态用地研究:内涵、分类与时空格局[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4931-4943.[Yu F,Li X B,Zhang L J,et al.Study of ecological land in China:Conception,classification,and spatial-temporal pattern[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14):4931-4943.]
[20]Costanza R,D"Arge R,De Groot R,et al.The value of the world`s ecosystem services and natural capital[J].World Environment,1997,387(6630):253-260.
[21]谢高地,张彩霞,张雷明,等.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(8):1243-1254.[Xie G D,Zhang C X,Zhang L M,et al.Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(8):1243-1254.]
[22]李昕,文婧,林坚.土地城镇化及相关问题研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(8):1042-1049.[Li X,Wen J,Lin J.Review of research on land urbanization and related studies[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(8):1042-1049.]
[23]刘涛,曹广忠.城市用地扩张及驱动力研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(8):927-934.[Liu T,Cao G Z.Progress in urban land expansion and its driving forces[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(8):927-934.]
[24]李子豪.外商直接投资对中国碳排放的门槛效应研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(1):163-174.[Li Z H.Threshold effects of foreign direct investment on China’s carbon emissions[J].Resources Science,2015,37(1):163-174.]
[25]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.[Liu J Y,Kuang W H,Zhang Z X,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(1):3-14.]
[26]任朝霞,杨达源.近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势及对荒漠化的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(4):91-95.[Ren Z X,Yang D Y.Climate change and surface run off change impact on desertification in the arid area of northwest China in resent 50years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2008,22(4):91-95.]
[27]杨锁华,胡守庚,瞿诗进.长江中游地区生态系统服务价值的地形梯度效应[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(3):1-15.[Yang S H,Hu S G,Qu S J.Terrain gradient effect of ecosystem service value in middle reach of Yangtze River,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2018,29(3):1-15.]
[28]哈丽旦·司地克,玉素甫江·如素力,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜.焉耆盆地气候变化和人类活动对生态系统服务价值的影响研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(5):684-694.[Haridan S,Yusufune R,Mamatitulson A.The impact of human activity and climate change on ecosystem services value in the Yanqi Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2016,24(5):684-694.]
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