接近成功和接近失败对幸运感评价的影响
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摘要
采用赌博任务范式,探讨在接近成功(差点赢但是并没有赢的结果)和接近失败(差点输但是并没有输的结果)的情况下,个体对自我和他人幸运的感知。结果发现:在赌博行为方面,前一次成功时个体下次投注的金额减少;与没有结果 (空白)相比,不论评价自己还是他人,成功时个体会感到更幸运,失败时觉得不幸运;与完全错过相比,接近成功时觉得不幸运,而接近失败时觉得很幸运,评价结果与评价对象无关。以上结果表明,在接近成功和接近失败时,个体对自我和他人幸运的感知相同。
In order to investigate volunteers' lucky perception to self and others,this study recruited thirty volunteers to play gambling task when they met near-wins(nonwin outcomes that were close to a major win),and their counterpart,near-losses(nonwin outcomes that are proximal to a major loss) in a decision-making task. The results showed: in the betting behavior,their betting was reduced when they won before. Compared to no results(neither win nor lose),both to others and themselves,they felt luckier when won while unlucky when lose. Compared to full-misses,both to others and themselves,near-wins decreased individual's perceived luck while near-losses increased individual's perceived luck. Furthermore,lucky perception did not correlate with the objects(yourself or others) they were evaluated. In conclusion,the study revealed that individuals had the same perception of lucky to self and others when they were in near-wins and near-losses situation.
In order to investigate volunteers' lucky perception to self and others,this study recruited thirty volunteers to play gambling task when they met near-wins(nonwin outcomes that were close to a major win),and their counterpart,near-losses(nonwin outcomes that are proximal to a major loss) in a decision-making task. The results showed: in the betting behavior,their betting was reduced when they won before. Compared to no results(neither win nor lose),both to others and themselves,they felt luckier when won while unlucky when lose. Compared to full-misses,both to others and themselves,near-wins decreased individual's perceived luck while near-losses increased individual's perceived luck. Furthermore,lucky perception did not correlate with the objects(yourself or others) they were evaluated. In conclusion,the study revealed that individuals had the same perception of lucky to self and others when they were in near-wins and near-losses situation.
引文
陈俊,贺晓玲,林静选(2008).结果的接近性和不同等级分界线对反事实思维的影响.心理科学,31(5),1058-1062.
刘永芳,陈雪娜,卢光莉,王怀勇(2010).决策者角色及相关因素对风险偏好的影响.心理科学,33(3),548-551.
刘永芳,毕玉芳,王怀勇(2010).情绪和任务框架对自我和预期他人决策时风险偏好的影响.心理学报,42(3),317-324.
王洪涛(2010).运气信念、人格五因素与成就动机的关系.硕士学位论文.陕西师范大学.
Clark,L.,Lawrence,A.J.,Astley-Jones,F.,&Gray,N.(2009).Gambling near-misses enhance motivation to gamble and recruit win-related brain circuitry.Neuron,61(3),481-490.
Clark,L.,Crooks,B.,Clarke,R.,Aitken,M.R.F.,&Dunn,B.D.(2012).Physiological responses to nearmiss outcomes and personal control during simulated gambling.Journal of Gambling Studies,28(1),123-137.
Clark,L.,Liu,R.,McKavanagh,R.,Garrett,A.,Dunn,B.D.,&Aitken,M.R.F.(2013).Learning and affect following near-miss outcomes in simulated gambling.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,26(5),442-450.
Denis,C^oté,Caron,A.,Aubert,J.,Véronique,Desrochers,&Ladouceur,R..(2003).Near wins prolong gambling on a video lottery terminal.Journal of Gambling Studies,19(4),433-438.
Dillon,R.L.,&Tinsley,C.H..(2008).How near-misses influence decision making under risk:a missed opportunity for learning.Management Science,54(54),1425-1440.
Dixon,M.J.,Harrigan,K.A.,Jarick,M.,Maclaren,V.,Fugelsang,J.A.,&Sheepy,E.(2011).Psychophysiological arousal signatures of near-misses in slot machine play.International Gambling Studies,11(3),393-407.
Epstude,K.,&Roese,N.J.(2008).The functional theory of counterfactual thinking.Personality and Social Psychology Review,12(2),168-192.
Guo,X.,Zhao,N.,Wang,S.,Chen,W.,Gong,R.,Xu,B.,&Yang,Z.(2010).Player-spectator discrepancies on risk preference during decision making.Journal of General Psychology,137(2),210-224.
Hsee,C.K.,&Weber,E.U.(2006).A fundamental prediction error:Self-others discrepancies in risk preference.Journal of Experimental Psychology General,126(1),45-53.
Kahneman,D.,&Tversky,A.(1982).The simulation heuristic.In D.Kahneman,P.Slovic,&A.Tversky(Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and bias.New York,NY:Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman,D.,&Miller,D.T.(1986).Norm theory:comparing reality to its alternatives.Psychological Review,93(2),136-153.
Kahneman,D.,&Varey,C.A.(1990).Propensities and counterfactuals:the loser that almost won.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,59(6),1101-1110.
Kassinove,J.I.,&Schare,M.L.(2001).Effects of the“near miss”and the“big win”on persistence at slot machine gambling.Psychology of Addictive Behaviors Journal of the Society of Psychologists in Addictive Behaviors,15(2),155-158.
Keren,G.B.,&Wagenaar,W.A.(1985).On the psychology of playing blackjack:normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory.Journal of Experimental Psychology General,114(114),133-158.
Meyerslevy,J.,&Maheswaran,D..(1992).When timing matters:the influence of temporal distance on consumers'affective and persuasive responses.Journal of Consumer Research,19(3),424-33.
Nagel,T.(1979).Mortal Questions.New York:Cambridge University Press Roese,&Neal,J.(1997).Counterfactual thinking.Psychological Bulletin,121(1),133-148.
Sciences,M.(2006).Biases in casino betting:the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy.Judgment and decision making,1(1),1-12.
Stone,E.R.,Yates,A.J.,&Caruthers,A.S.(2002).Risk taking in decision making for others versus the self.Journal of Applied Social Psychology,32(9),1797-1824.
Teigen,K.H.(1995).How good is good luck?The role of counterfactual thinking in the perception of lucky and unlucky events.European Journal of Social Psychology,25(3),281-302.
Teigen,K.H.(1996).Luck:The art of a near miss.Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,37(2),156-171.
Wohl,M.J.A.,&Enzle,M.E.(2003).The effects of near wins and near losses on self-perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,39(2),184-191..
Wu,Y.,Dijk,E.,&Clark,L.(2015).Near-wins and near-losses in gambling:a behavioral and facial EMGstudy.Psychophysiology,52(3),359-366.
刘永芳,陈雪娜,卢光莉,王怀勇(2010).决策者角色及相关因素对风险偏好的影响.心理科学,33(3),548-551.
刘永芳,毕玉芳,王怀勇(2010).情绪和任务框架对自我和预期他人决策时风险偏好的影响.心理学报,42(3),317-324.
王洪涛(2010).运气信念、人格五因素与成就动机的关系.硕士学位论文.陕西师范大学.
Clark,L.,Lawrence,A.J.,Astley-Jones,F.,&Gray,N.(2009).Gambling near-misses enhance motivation to gamble and recruit win-related brain circuitry.Neuron,61(3),481-490.
Clark,L.,Crooks,B.,Clarke,R.,Aitken,M.R.F.,&Dunn,B.D.(2012).Physiological responses to nearmiss outcomes and personal control during simulated gambling.Journal of Gambling Studies,28(1),123-137.
Clark,L.,Liu,R.,McKavanagh,R.,Garrett,A.,Dunn,B.D.,&Aitken,M.R.F.(2013).Learning and affect following near-miss outcomes in simulated gambling.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,26(5),442-450.
Denis,C^oté,Caron,A.,Aubert,J.,Véronique,Desrochers,&Ladouceur,R..(2003).Near wins prolong gambling on a video lottery terminal.Journal of Gambling Studies,19(4),433-438.
Dillon,R.L.,&Tinsley,C.H..(2008).How near-misses influence decision making under risk:a missed opportunity for learning.Management Science,54(54),1425-1440.
Dixon,M.J.,Harrigan,K.A.,Jarick,M.,Maclaren,V.,Fugelsang,J.A.,&Sheepy,E.(2011).Psychophysiological arousal signatures of near-misses in slot machine play.International Gambling Studies,11(3),393-407.
Epstude,K.,&Roese,N.J.(2008).The functional theory of counterfactual thinking.Personality and Social Psychology Review,12(2),168-192.
Guo,X.,Zhao,N.,Wang,S.,Chen,W.,Gong,R.,Xu,B.,&Yang,Z.(2010).Player-spectator discrepancies on risk preference during decision making.Journal of General Psychology,137(2),210-224.
Hsee,C.K.,&Weber,E.U.(2006).A fundamental prediction error:Self-others discrepancies in risk preference.Journal of Experimental Psychology General,126(1),45-53.
Kahneman,D.,&Tversky,A.(1982).The simulation heuristic.In D.Kahneman,P.Slovic,&A.Tversky(Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and bias.New York,NY:Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman,D.,&Miller,D.T.(1986).Norm theory:comparing reality to its alternatives.Psychological Review,93(2),136-153.
Kahneman,D.,&Varey,C.A.(1990).Propensities and counterfactuals:the loser that almost won.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,59(6),1101-1110.
Kassinove,J.I.,&Schare,M.L.(2001).Effects of the“near miss”and the“big win”on persistence at slot machine gambling.Psychology of Addictive Behaviors Journal of the Society of Psychologists in Addictive Behaviors,15(2),155-158.
Keren,G.B.,&Wagenaar,W.A.(1985).On the psychology of playing blackjack:normative and descriptive considerations with implications for decision theory.Journal of Experimental Psychology General,114(114),133-158.
Meyerslevy,J.,&Maheswaran,D..(1992).When timing matters:the influence of temporal distance on consumers'affective and persuasive responses.Journal of Consumer Research,19(3),424-33.
Nagel,T.(1979).Mortal Questions.New York:Cambridge University Press Roese,&Neal,J.(1997).Counterfactual thinking.Psychological Bulletin,121(1),133-148.
Sciences,M.(2006).Biases in casino betting:the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy.Judgment and decision making,1(1),1-12.
Stone,E.R.,Yates,A.J.,&Caruthers,A.S.(2002).Risk taking in decision making for others versus the self.Journal of Applied Social Psychology,32(9),1797-1824.
Teigen,K.H.(1995).How good is good luck?The role of counterfactual thinking in the perception of lucky and unlucky events.European Journal of Social Psychology,25(3),281-302.
Teigen,K.H.(1996).Luck:The art of a near miss.Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,37(2),156-171.
Wohl,M.J.A.,&Enzle,M.E.(2003).The effects of near wins and near losses on self-perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,39(2),184-191..
Wu,Y.,Dijk,E.,&Clark,L.(2015).Near-wins and near-losses in gambling:a behavioral and facial EMGstudy.Psychophysiology,52(3),359-366.