美日贸易战后日本出口的依市定价研究——基于1999—2016年数据
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摘要
当下备受瞩目的中美贸易战与20世纪80年代日美贸易战的相似之处在于汇率战。日本通过汇率变化即依市定价行为成功地遏制了美国平抑贸易逆差的企图。依市定价已成为解释汇率不完全传递的理论基础,美日贸易战为研究汇率调整贸易平衡提供了重要的研究对象。借助1999-2016年日本产品层面的出口以及出口目的地的相关数据,本文运用面板回归模型实证分析了日本产品层面的出口依市定价行为。结果表明,总体而言,在样本期间,日本产品出口表现出较强的依市定价行为,出口目的经济增速越高,通货膨胀水平越低,日本产品出口的依市定价能力越强;日本出口产品的依市定价行为存在出口目的地异质性,北美和澳大利亚最为强烈,亚洲和欧洲也紧随其后,较为显著;日本出口产品的依市定价依赖于出口价格水平,出口价格越高,依市定价能力越低。政策意义在于:(1)坚持人民币汇率的平稳调整,维系人民币汇率有升有降的双向波动;(2)改善出口产品结构,增加高价值商品的出口。
The strength of the ability of Pricing-to-Market is an important aspect to reflect export pricing behavior. Using the export data at the product level of Japan from 1999 to 2016 and relevant data of export destinations, this paper empirically studies the export-oriented pricing behavior of Japanese products at the product level with the panel regression model used. The results show that there is a strong market-based pricing behavior for Japanese product exports during the sample period studied. The higher the economic growth rate of export destinations, the lower the inflation level, and the stronger the pricing power of Japanese products. The pricing behavior of Japanese export products varies by export destination. North America and Australia are the strongest in Japan's export pricing to major regions, followed by Asia and Europe. The pricing-to-market of Japanese exports depends on the export price level. The higher the export price, the lower the pricing power according to the city.
The strength of the ability of Pricing-to-Market is an important aspect to reflect export pricing behavior. Using the export data at the product level of Japan from 1999 to 2016 and relevant data of export destinations, this paper empirically studies the export-oriented pricing behavior of Japanese products at the product level with the panel regression model used. The results show that there is a strong market-based pricing behavior for Japanese product exports during the sample period studied. The higher the economic growth rate of export destinations, the lower the inflation level, and the stronger the pricing power of Japanese products. The pricing behavior of Japanese export products varies by export destination. North America and Australia are the strongest in Japan's export pricing to major regions, followed by Asia and Europe. The pricing-to-market of Japanese exports depends on the export price level. The higher the export price, the lower the pricing power according to the city.
引文
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[2]Kenichi Ohno.Export Pricing Behavior of Manufacturing:A U.S.:Japan Comparison[J].IMF Staff Papers,1989,36(3):550-579.
[3]Anil Khosla.Exchange rate pass-through and export pricing evidence from the Japanese Economy[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1991,5(1):41-59.
[4]Guillaume Gaulier,Amina Lahrèche-Révil,Isabelle Méjean.Exchange-rate pass-through at the product level[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2008,41(2):425-449.
[5]萧琛,崔楠楠.论汇率变动对出口价格的传递效应--中国、日本、东盟、德国经验数据比较研究[J].国际经贸探索,2011(4):63-70.
[6]倪克勤,曹伟.人民币汇率变动的不完全传递研究理论及实证[J].金融研究,2009(6):44-59.
[7]马红霞,张朋.人民币汇率变动对中欧出口价格的传递效应[J].世界经济研究,2008(7):32-37.
[8]张成思,张国斌,曾慧.中国出口厂商依市定价行为研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015(11):28-37.
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[10]Robert C.Feenstra,Joseph E.Gagnon,Michael M.Knetter.Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1996,40(1-2):187-207.
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[12]Kenneth Kasa.Adjustment costs and pricing-to-market theory and evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,1992(2):1-27.
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[14]JoséManuel Campa,Linda S.Goldberg.Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices:A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?[J].NBER Working Paper No.8934,2002.
[15]Jeannine Bailliu,Eiji Fujii.Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries:An Empirical Investigation[J].Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada,2004.
[16]Ehsan U.Choudhri,Dalia S.Hakura.Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices:Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2006,25(4):614-639.
[17]Michele Ca’Zorzi,Elke Hahn,Marcelo Sánchez.Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets[J].ECBWorking Paper No.739,2007.
[18]Matthieu Bussière,Simona Delle Chiaie,Tuomas A Peltonen.Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy:The Role of Emerging Market Economies[J].IMF Economic Review,2014,62(1):146-178.
[19]Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez,Amalia Morales-Zumaquero.A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2016,38(5):985-1000.
[20]Jeffrey Frankel,David Parsley,Shang-Jin Wei.Slow Pass-through Around the World:A New Import for Developing Countries?[J].Open Economies Review,2012,23(2):213-251.
[21]Mototsugu Shintani,Akiko Terada-Hagiwara,Tomoyoshi Yabu.Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation:A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2013,32:512-527.
[22]Hafedh Bouakez,Nooman Rebei.Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined?Evidence from Canada[J].Journal of International Economics,2008,75(2):249-267.
[23]Diego Winkelried.Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru[J].Empirical Economics,2014,46(4):1181-1196.
[24]Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah,Abdalla Sirag,Siew-Voon Soon.Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy:The case of Mexico[J].Research in International Business and Finance,2017,41:247-259.
[25]Antonia López-Villavicencio,Valérie Mignon.Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries:Do the inflation environment,monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2017,79:20-38.
[26]Michael M Knetter.Price Discrimination by U.S.and German Exporters[J].American Economic Review,1989,79(1):198-210
[27]Yuri Nagataki Sasaki.Pricing-to-Market Behavior:Japanese Exports to the US,Asia,and the EU[J].Review of International Economics,2002,10(1):140-150.
[28]Craig R.Parsons,Kiyotaka Sato.New Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports[J].Center for International Trade Studies(CITS)Working Paper,2007.
[2]Kenichi Ohno.Export Pricing Behavior of Manufacturing:A U.S.:Japan Comparison[J].IMF Staff Papers,1989,36(3):550-579.
[3]Anil Khosla.Exchange rate pass-through and export pricing evidence from the Japanese Economy[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1991,5(1):41-59.
[4]Guillaume Gaulier,Amina Lahrèche-Révil,Isabelle Méjean.Exchange-rate pass-through at the product level[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2008,41(2):425-449.
[5]萧琛,崔楠楠.论汇率变动对出口价格的传递效应--中国、日本、东盟、德国经验数据比较研究[J].国际经贸探索,2011(4):63-70.
[6]倪克勤,曹伟.人民币汇率变动的不完全传递研究理论及实证[J].金融研究,2009(6):44-59.
[7]马红霞,张朋.人民币汇率变动对中欧出口价格的传递效应[J].世界经济研究,2008(7):32-37.
[8]张成思,张国斌,曾慧.中国出口厂商依市定价行为研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015(11):28-37.
[9]Paul Krugman.Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes[J].NBER Working Paper No.1926,1986.
[10]Robert C.Feenstra,Joseph E.Gagnon,Michael M.Knetter.Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1996,40(1-2):187-207.
[11]Richard Baldwin,Paul R.Krugman.Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Schocks[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1989(4):635-654.
[12]Kenneth Kasa.Adjustment costs and pricing-to-market theory and evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,1992(2):1-27.
[13]John B.Taylor.Low inflation,pass-through,and the pricing power of firms[J].European Economic Review,2000,44(7):1389-1408.
[14]JoséManuel Campa,Linda S.Goldberg.Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices:A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?[J].NBER Working Paper No.8934,2002.
[15]Jeannine Bailliu,Eiji Fujii.Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries:An Empirical Investigation[J].Staff Working Papers from Bank of Canada,2004.
[16]Ehsan U.Choudhri,Dalia S.Hakura.Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices:Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2006,25(4):614-639.
[17]Michele Ca’Zorzi,Elke Hahn,Marcelo Sánchez.Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets[J].ECBWorking Paper No.739,2007.
[18]Matthieu Bussière,Simona Delle Chiaie,Tuomas A Peltonen.Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy:The Role of Emerging Market Economies[J].IMF Economic Review,2014,62(1):146-178.
[19]Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez,Amalia Morales-Zumaquero.A new look at exchange rate pass-through in the G-7 countries[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2016,38(5):985-1000.
[20]Jeffrey Frankel,David Parsley,Shang-Jin Wei.Slow Pass-through Around the World:A New Import for Developing Countries?[J].Open Economies Review,2012,23(2):213-251.
[21]Mototsugu Shintani,Akiko Terada-Hagiwara,Tomoyoshi Yabu.Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation:A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2013,32:512-527.
[22]Hafedh Bouakez,Nooman Rebei.Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined?Evidence from Canada[J].Journal of International Economics,2008,75(2):249-267.
[23]Diego Winkelried.Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru[J].Empirical Economics,2014,46(4):1181-1196.
[24]Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah,Abdalla Sirag,Siew-Voon Soon.Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy:The case of Mexico[J].Research in International Business and Finance,2017,41:247-259.
[25]Antonia López-Villavicencio,Valérie Mignon.Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries:Do the inflation environment,monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2017,79:20-38.
[26]Michael M Knetter.Price Discrimination by U.S.and German Exporters[J].American Economic Review,1989,79(1):198-210
[27]Yuri Nagataki Sasaki.Pricing-to-Market Behavior:Japanese Exports to the US,Asia,and the EU[J].Review of International Economics,2002,10(1):140-150.
[28]Craig R.Parsons,Kiyotaka Sato.New Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports[J].Center for International Trade Studies(CITS)Working Paper,2007.