面向气象指数保险的水果冰雹灾害灾损评估方法
|
摘要
冰雹灾害是农业生产面临的主要气象灾害之一,优化制约冰雹灾害指数保险产品设计的灾损评估方法,对于发展稳定、可持续的气象指数保险产品具有重要的科学价值,同时对大范围推广气象指数保险产品具有重要的指导意义。本研究结合气象指数保险产品的理赔指数设计的客观要求,提出了一种基于动量方程的水果冰雹灾害灾损评估方法。引入基于气象雷达观测的冰雹识别技术满足保险产品的理赔指数设计需求;通过分析果品在雹损过程中的受力关系,得到水果对冰雹撞击的敏感性参数,构建基于冰雹直径和初始风速的灾损评估模型,实现被冰雹撞击后对果品损伤物理特性的量化表达。以北京平谷大桃为例,对该方法用于冰雹灾害损失评估的可行性进行验证。结果表明,模型可以有效评估冰雹对桃品的损伤程度,是一种简单、快捷、高效的损失评估方法,基于此方法设计水果冰雹灾害气象指数保险产品具有可行性。
Hail disaster is one of meteorological disasters threatening agricultural producing in China. Solving the problem of loss assessment methods that has been restraining index-based insurance production design for hail is of scientific value for developing stable and sustainable weather-index-based insurance(WII) productions, and also is of guiding significance for promoting WII productions in wide rang. Considering objective demanding of claiming index design for WII productions, a loss assessment method for fruits suffering from hail disaster was proposed based on momentum equation in this paper. The method satisfied claiming index design requirements for WII productions by introducing hail recognition technology relying on meteorological radar observation.And also, it revealed the disaster-causing mechanism of hail damage to fruits by attaining fruits' sensitive parameters to hail crash, through analyzing the stress relation of fruits in the process of hail damage and quantifying fruits' physical characteristics representation after crash by hail. Feasibility in application of loss assessment for hail was analyzed in the case of peaches growing in Pinggu district of Beijing. Results showed that the method was so simple, rapid and efficient that was able to assess peaches' damage level caused by hail, based on which designing fruits WII productions for hail was practically viable.
Hail disaster is one of meteorological disasters threatening agricultural producing in China. Solving the problem of loss assessment methods that has been restraining index-based insurance production design for hail is of scientific value for developing stable and sustainable weather-index-based insurance(WII) productions, and also is of guiding significance for promoting WII productions in wide rang. Considering objective demanding of claiming index design for WII productions, a loss assessment method for fruits suffering from hail disaster was proposed based on momentum equation in this paper. The method satisfied claiming index design requirements for WII productions by introducing hail recognition technology relying on meteorological radar observation.And also, it revealed the disaster-causing mechanism of hail damage to fruits by attaining fruits' sensitive parameters to hail crash, through analyzing the stress relation of fruits in the process of hail damage and quantifying fruits' physical characteristics representation after crash by hail. Feasibility in application of loss assessment for hail was analyzed in the case of peaches growing in Pinggu district of Beijing. Results showed that the method was so simple, rapid and efficient that was able to assess peaches' damage level caused by hail, based on which designing fruits WII productions for hail was practically viable.
引文
[1]陈盛伟.农业气象指数保险在发展中国家的应用及在我国的探索[J].保险研究,2010,(3):82-88.Chen S W.The application of agro-weather index insurance in developing countries and its development in China[J].Insurance Studies,2010,(3):82-88.(in Chinese)
[2]The World Bank.Managing agricultural production risk[R].The World Bank,2005.
[3]The World Bank.Index insurance for weather risk in lowerincome countries[R].The World Bank,2007.
[4]O’Donnell.Practice review on innovations in finance for disaster risk management[R].The 2009 ISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction,2009.
[5]娄伟平,吴利红,倪沪平,等.柑橘冻害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(4):1339-1347.Lou W P,Wu L H,Ni H P,et al.Design of weather claiming index for citrus freezing damage insurance[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2009,42(4):1339-1347.(in Chinese)
[6]刘凯文,刘可群,邓爱娟,等.基于开花期地域差异的中稻高温热害天气指数保险设计[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(10):679-688.Liu K W,Liu K Q,Deng A J,et al.Weather index insurance design of middle-season rice heat damage based on regional difference of flowering stage[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(10):679-688.(in Chinese)
[7]娄伟平,吴利红,姚益平.水稻暴雨灾害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(3):632-639.Lou W P,Wu L H,Yao Y P.Design of weather-based indemnity indices for paddy rice heavy rain damage insurance[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(3):632-639.(in Chinese)
[8]杨太明,孙喜波,刘布春,等.安徽省水稻高温热害保险天气指数模型设计[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):220-226.Yang T M,Sun X B,Liu B C,et al.Design on weather indices model for insurance of rice heat damage in Anhui province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(2):220-226.(in Chinese)
[9]马玉玲,刘南江,李群.2015年全国自然灾害基本情况分析[J].中国减灾,2016,(3):20-23.Ma Y L,Liu N J,Li Q.Analysis of Chinese nature disaster situation in 2015[J].Disaster Reduction China,2016,(3):20-23.(in Chinese)
[10]刘志明,晏明,李铁强,等.冰雹灾害的卫星遥感监测方法初探[J].气象,2004,(9):50-53.Liu Z M,Yan M,Li T Q,et al.Survey of hail disaster with satellite remote sensing[J].Meteorological Monthly,2004,(9):50-53.(in Chinese)
[11]娄卫平,吴利红,陈华江,等.柑橘气象指数保险合同费率厘定分析及设计[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(9):1904-1911.Lou W P,Wu L H,Chen H J,et al.Analysis and design of premium rates determined for weather-based index insurance contract of citrus[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(9):1904-1911.(in Chinese)
[12]吴利红,娄伟平,姚益平,等.水稻农业气象指数保险产品设计:以浙江省为例[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(23):4942-4950.Wu L H,Lou W P,Yao Y P,et al.Design of products for rice agro-meteorological index insurance:a case in Zhejiang province[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(23):4942-4950.(in Chinese)
[13]牛浩,陈盛伟.农业气象指数保险研究综述[J].山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(3):69-74.Niu H,Chen S W.Research summary of the agricultural meteorological index insurance[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2016,18(3):69-74.(in Chinese)
[14]Roberts M E,Vasudevan S.Fine-grained multi-factor hail damage modelling[A].Conference on Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligence(TAAI)[C].IEEE,2015:517-524.
[15]Natho S,Thieken A H.Implementation and adaptation of a macro-scale method to assess and monitor direct economic losses caused by natural hazards[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2018,28:191-205.
[16]于宁宁,陈盛伟.天气指数保险国内外研究综述[J].山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,11(4):64-69.Yu N N,Chen S W.Review of weather-based index insurance studies[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2009,11(4):64-69.(in Chinese)
[17]王雨增,李凤声,伏传林.人工防雹实用技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1994.Wang Y Z,Li F S,Fu C L.Practical technology for artificial hail suppression[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press,1994.(in Chinese)
[18]农业大词典编辑委员会.农业大词典[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1998.Committee of the Agriculture Dictionary.Agriculture dictionary[M].Beijing:Chinese Agriculture Press,1998.(in Chinese)
[19]中国气象局.地面气象观测业务技术规定(2016版)[S].北京:中国气象局,2016.China Meteorological Administration.Standard business procedure for landserface meteorology observation(Version2016)[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Administration,2016(in Chinese)
[20]曹俊武,刘黎平.双线偏振多普勒天气雷达识别冰雹区方法研究[J].气象,2006,(6):13-19.Cao J W,Liu L P.Hail identification with dual-linear polarimetric radar observations[J].Meteorological Monthly2006,(6):13-19.(in Chinese)
[21]苏德斌,马建立,张蔷,等.X波段双线偏振雷达冰雹识别初步研究[J].气象,2011,37(10):1228-1232.Su D B,Ma J L,Zhang Q,et al.Preliminary research on method of hail detection with X band dual linear polarization radar[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(10):1228-1232.(in Chinese)
[22]牛生杰,马磊,翟涛.冰雹谱分布及Z_e-E关系的初步分析[J].气象学报,1999,57(2):217-225.Niu S J,Ma L,Zhai T.Preliminary analysis of the hailstone spectra distribution and the relations between Ze and E[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1999,57(2):217-225.(in Chinese)
[23]刘晓莉,水旭琼.青海两次多单体降雹过程的雹谱分布特征[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(6):845-854.Liu X L,Shui X Q.The hail size distribution characteristics of two multi-cell hail processes in Qinghai[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,38(6):845-854.(in Chinese)
[24]金永利,张蔷.北京地区一次降雹过程和冰雹微物理特征[J].气象,2002,28(1):18-20.Jin Y L,Zhang Q.A case study of synoptic process and inner structure of hails in Beijing[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(1):18-20.(in Chinese)
[25]石安英.冰雹谱分布特征的探讨[J].高原气象,1989,8(3):279-283.Shi A Y.Discussion on hail size distribution characteristic[J].Plateau Meteorology,1989,8(3):279-283.(in Chinese)
[26]民政部.关于印发《自然灾害情况统计制度》的通知[Z].北京:民政部,2008.Ministry of Civil Affairs of People’s Republic of China.Notice about releasing“Statistical System for Nature Disaster Situation”[Z].Beijing:Ministry of Civil Affairs of People’s Republic of China,2008.
[27]国家减灾委员会办公室.关于印发《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》的通知[Z].北京:国家减灾委员会办公室,2014.Office of National Disaster Mitigation Committee.Notice about releasing“Statistical System for Especially Severe Nature Disaster Loss”[Z].Beijing:Office of National Disaster Mitigation Committee,2014.(in Chinese)
[28]国家减灾委员会办公室.GB/T 24438.1-2009自然灾害灾情统计:基本指标[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2009.Office of National Disaster Mitigation Committee.GB/T24438.1-2009 Statistic for nature disaster situation:basic indices[S].Beijing:China Standard Press,2009.
[29]Daniell J E,Wenzel F,Schaefer A M.The use of historic loss data for insurance and total loss modeling[M].Elsevier,2018:107-137.
[30]Prabhakar M,Gopinath K A,Reddy A G K,et al.Mapping hailstorm damaged crop area using multispectral satellite data[J].The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science,2018,22(1):73-79.
[2]The World Bank.Managing agricultural production risk[R].The World Bank,2005.
[3]The World Bank.Index insurance for weather risk in lowerincome countries[R].The World Bank,2007.
[4]O’Donnell.Practice review on innovations in finance for disaster risk management[R].The 2009 ISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction,2009.
[5]娄伟平,吴利红,倪沪平,等.柑橘冻害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(4):1339-1347.Lou W P,Wu L H,Ni H P,et al.Design of weather claiming index for citrus freezing damage insurance[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2009,42(4):1339-1347.(in Chinese)
[6]刘凯文,刘可群,邓爱娟,等.基于开花期地域差异的中稻高温热害天气指数保险设计[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(10):679-688.Liu K W,Liu K Q,Deng A J,et al.Weather index insurance design of middle-season rice heat damage based on regional difference of flowering stage[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(10):679-688.(in Chinese)
[7]娄伟平,吴利红,姚益平.水稻暴雨灾害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(3):632-639.Lou W P,Wu L H,Yao Y P.Design of weather-based indemnity indices for paddy rice heavy rain damage insurance[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(3):632-639.(in Chinese)
[8]杨太明,孙喜波,刘布春,等.安徽省水稻高温热害保险天气指数模型设计[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):220-226.Yang T M,Sun X B,Liu B C,et al.Design on weather indices model for insurance of rice heat damage in Anhui province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(2):220-226.(in Chinese)
[9]马玉玲,刘南江,李群.2015年全国自然灾害基本情况分析[J].中国减灾,2016,(3):20-23.Ma Y L,Liu N J,Li Q.Analysis of Chinese nature disaster situation in 2015[J].Disaster Reduction China,2016,(3):20-23.(in Chinese)
[10]刘志明,晏明,李铁强,等.冰雹灾害的卫星遥感监测方法初探[J].气象,2004,(9):50-53.Liu Z M,Yan M,Li T Q,et al.Survey of hail disaster with satellite remote sensing[J].Meteorological Monthly,2004,(9):50-53.(in Chinese)
[11]娄卫平,吴利红,陈华江,等.柑橘气象指数保险合同费率厘定分析及设计[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(9):1904-1911.Lou W P,Wu L H,Chen H J,et al.Analysis and design of premium rates determined for weather-based index insurance contract of citrus[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(9):1904-1911.(in Chinese)
[12]吴利红,娄伟平,姚益平,等.水稻农业气象指数保险产品设计:以浙江省为例[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(23):4942-4950.Wu L H,Lou W P,Yao Y P,et al.Design of products for rice agro-meteorological index insurance:a case in Zhejiang province[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(23):4942-4950.(in Chinese)
[13]牛浩,陈盛伟.农业气象指数保险研究综述[J].山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(3):69-74.Niu H,Chen S W.Research summary of the agricultural meteorological index insurance[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2016,18(3):69-74.(in Chinese)
[14]Roberts M E,Vasudevan S.Fine-grained multi-factor hail damage modelling[A].Conference on Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligence(TAAI)[C].IEEE,2015:517-524.
[15]Natho S,Thieken A H.Implementation and adaptation of a macro-scale method to assess and monitor direct economic losses caused by natural hazards[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2018,28:191-205.
[16]于宁宁,陈盛伟.天气指数保险国内外研究综述[J].山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,11(4):64-69.Yu N N,Chen S W.Review of weather-based index insurance studies[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2009,11(4):64-69.(in Chinese)
[17]王雨增,李凤声,伏传林.人工防雹实用技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1994.Wang Y Z,Li F S,Fu C L.Practical technology for artificial hail suppression[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press,1994.(in Chinese)
[18]农业大词典编辑委员会.农业大词典[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1998.Committee of the Agriculture Dictionary.Agriculture dictionary[M].Beijing:Chinese Agriculture Press,1998.(in Chinese)
[19]中国气象局.地面气象观测业务技术规定(2016版)[S].北京:中国气象局,2016.China Meteorological Administration.Standard business procedure for landserface meteorology observation(Version2016)[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Administration,2016(in Chinese)
[20]曹俊武,刘黎平.双线偏振多普勒天气雷达识别冰雹区方法研究[J].气象,2006,(6):13-19.Cao J W,Liu L P.Hail identification with dual-linear polarimetric radar observations[J].Meteorological Monthly2006,(6):13-19.(in Chinese)
[21]苏德斌,马建立,张蔷,等.X波段双线偏振雷达冰雹识别初步研究[J].气象,2011,37(10):1228-1232.Su D B,Ma J L,Zhang Q,et al.Preliminary research on method of hail detection with X band dual linear polarization radar[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(10):1228-1232.(in Chinese)
[22]牛生杰,马磊,翟涛.冰雹谱分布及Z_e-E关系的初步分析[J].气象学报,1999,57(2):217-225.Niu S J,Ma L,Zhai T.Preliminary analysis of the hailstone spectra distribution and the relations between Ze and E[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1999,57(2):217-225.(in Chinese)
[23]刘晓莉,水旭琼.青海两次多单体降雹过程的雹谱分布特征[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(6):845-854.Liu X L,Shui X Q.The hail size distribution characteristics of two multi-cell hail processes in Qinghai[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,38(6):845-854.(in Chinese)
[24]金永利,张蔷.北京地区一次降雹过程和冰雹微物理特征[J].气象,2002,28(1):18-20.Jin Y L,Zhang Q.A case study of synoptic process and inner structure of hails in Beijing[J].Meteorological Monthly,2002,28(1):18-20.(in Chinese)
[25]石安英.冰雹谱分布特征的探讨[J].高原气象,1989,8(3):279-283.Shi A Y.Discussion on hail size distribution characteristic[J].Plateau Meteorology,1989,8(3):279-283.(in Chinese)
[26]民政部.关于印发《自然灾害情况统计制度》的通知[Z].北京:民政部,2008.Ministry of Civil Affairs of People’s Republic of China.Notice about releasing“Statistical System for Nature Disaster Situation”[Z].Beijing:Ministry of Civil Affairs of People’s Republic of China,2008.
[27]国家减灾委员会办公室.关于印发《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》的通知[Z].北京:国家减灾委员会办公室,2014.Office of National Disaster Mitigation Committee.Notice about releasing“Statistical System for Especially Severe Nature Disaster Loss”[Z].Beijing:Office of National Disaster Mitigation Committee,2014.(in Chinese)
[28]国家减灾委员会办公室.GB/T 24438.1-2009自然灾害灾情统计:基本指标[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2009.Office of National Disaster Mitigation Committee.GB/T24438.1-2009 Statistic for nature disaster situation:basic indices[S].Beijing:China Standard Press,2009.
[29]Daniell J E,Wenzel F,Schaefer A M.The use of historic loss data for insurance and total loss modeling[M].Elsevier,2018:107-137.
[30]Prabhakar M,Gopinath K A,Reddy A G K,et al.Mapping hailstorm damaged crop area using multispectral satellite data[J].The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science,2018,22(1):73-79.