基于WBS-RBS及FCE法对B型产品开发项目的风险评估
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摘要
文中以电梯部件产品项目开发的为例进行分析。首先用WBS-RBS方法得到风险识别矩阵,确定了影响项目的相关风险因素。其次,运用层次分析法进行分析计算,得到各风险因素的权重系数。接着,用模糊综合评价法构建出模糊评价矩阵,结合风险的权重向量得到模糊评价向量,将其归一化处理后,根据最大隶属度原则,得出该项目风险程度等级。最后项目组负责成员对相关风险采取针对性的措施,以便于有效的预防和转移风险。
This article takes elevator component product development as an example to analyze. The risk identification matrix is obtained by coupling the two factors from WBS and RBS and the related risk factors that affect the project is fixed. Secondly, the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight coefficients of all risk factors. Then, the fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed, and the fuzzy evaluation vector is obtained by combining the weight vector of the risk. After normalizing the fuzzy evaluation vector, the risk level of the project is obtained according to the principle of maximum membership degree. Finally, the project members take measures to prevent and transfer risks effectively.
This article takes elevator component product development as an example to analyze. The risk identification matrix is obtained by coupling the two factors from WBS and RBS and the related risk factors that affect the project is fixed. Secondly, the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight coefficients of all risk factors. Then, the fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed, and the fuzzy evaluation vector is obtained by combining the weight vector of the risk. After normalizing the fuzzy evaluation vector, the risk level of the project is obtained according to the principle of maximum membership degree. Finally, the project members take measures to prevent and transfer risks effectively.
引文
[1]高铭.资料与数据[J].中国电梯,2017(24):137-138.
[2]陈关亭,黄小琳,章甜.基于企业风险管理框架的内部控制评价模型及应用[J].审计研究,2013(06):93-101.
[3]任南,韩冰洁,何彦昕.基于WBS-RBS-DSM的项目风险识别与评估[J].系统工程,2014,32(11):96-100.
[4]薛瑶,刘永强,戴玮,方圆.WBS-RBS法在水利工程全过程管理中的风险识别[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(02):71-74,78.
[5]王,刘保国,亓轶.基于WBS-RBS与故障树耦合的地铁施工风险与评价[J].地下空间与工程学报,2015,11(S2):772-779.
[6]张福玲.企业内部控制评价指标体系的构建[J].经营与管理,2013(01):102-105.
[7]何德文,黄真谛.基于模糊综合评价法的重大工程项目社会风险评价[J].统计与决策,2013(10):53-56.
[8]王化中,强凤娇,陈晓暾.模糊综合评价中权重与评价原则的重新确定[J].统计与决策,2015(08):24-27.
[9]肖建英,谭术魁.基于模糊评价法的征地冲突风险测评[J].统计与决策,2015(05):44-47.
[10]马丽丽,田淑芳,王娜.基于层次分析与模糊数学综合评判法的矿区生态环境评价[J].国土资源遥感,2013,25(03):165-170.
[11]张少刚,赵媚,倪小敏,王浩波,张和平.基于AHP-模糊评价的化工园区综合应急能力研究[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(01):77-83.
[12]谢亚伟,金德民.工程项目风险管理与保险[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016:42,55-58.
[13]司守奎,孙玺菁.数学建模算法与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011:351-355.
[2]陈关亭,黄小琳,章甜.基于企业风险管理框架的内部控制评价模型及应用[J].审计研究,2013(06):93-101.
[3]任南,韩冰洁,何彦昕.基于WBS-RBS-DSM的项目风险识别与评估[J].系统工程,2014,32(11):96-100.
[4]薛瑶,刘永强,戴玮,方圆.WBS-RBS法在水利工程全过程管理中的风险识别[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(02):71-74,78.
[5]王,刘保国,亓轶.基于WBS-RBS与故障树耦合的地铁施工风险与评价[J].地下空间与工程学报,2015,11(S2):772-779.
[6]张福玲.企业内部控制评价指标体系的构建[J].经营与管理,2013(01):102-105.
[7]何德文,黄真谛.基于模糊综合评价法的重大工程项目社会风险评价[J].统计与决策,2013(10):53-56.
[8]王化中,强凤娇,陈晓暾.模糊综合评价中权重与评价原则的重新确定[J].统计与决策,2015(08):24-27.
[9]肖建英,谭术魁.基于模糊评价法的征地冲突风险测评[J].统计与决策,2015(05):44-47.
[10]马丽丽,田淑芳,王娜.基于层次分析与模糊数学综合评判法的矿区生态环境评价[J].国土资源遥感,2013,25(03):165-170.
[11]张少刚,赵媚,倪小敏,王浩波,张和平.基于AHP-模糊评价的化工园区综合应急能力研究[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(01):77-83.
[12]谢亚伟,金德民.工程项目风险管理与保险[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2016:42,55-58.
[13]司守奎,孙玺菁.数学建模算法与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2011:351-355.