中国森林火灾发生特征及其与主要气候因子的关系研究
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摘要
基于火灾年鉴数据及CRU格点气象资料,借助时间序列、皮尔逊相关分析及线性回归分析等方法,分析了我国1950—2017年期间森林火灾发生的特征及其气候驱动因子,并建立了火灾导致伤亡人数的预测模型。结果表明:1)森林火灾发生次数、森林受灾面积、受伤人数、死亡人数及伤亡人数等5个参数随时间均具有相似的变化趋势,且相互间均存在显著正相关(P<0.01)。2)1950年以来,全国森林火灾次数、受灾森林面积及伤亡人数均呈显著的下降趋势。3)1950—1987年期间,全国森林火灾发生次数与生长季降水呈正相关,与非生长季降水则呈负相关;1988年以后,除5月和9月外,森林火灾的发生与降水基本呈负相关关系。4)1950—1987年间,全国森林火灾发生次数与生长季末温度呈正相关;1988年以后,森林火灾发生次数与前1年及当年生长季或生长季前的均温、最高温及最低温呈负相关。5)1950—1987年间全国森林火灾发生次数与前1年的PDSI呈正相关,并在6月、9月、11月和12月达到显著水平;1988年以后,森林火灾发生次数与逐月PDSI呈负相关关系。可燃物数量及其含水率是决定林火发生的关键因子,特别是在气候变暖背景下,高温触发的"暖干旱"现象可能会改变传统认为的火灾-气候关系,因此未来需要进一步深入研究气候变暖背景下森林火灾发生规律及其影响因素,才能科学合理地做好林火预防与管理工作。
Based on the fire data and CRU grid meteorological data,the time characteristics,Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression analysis are used to comprehensively analyze the time characteristics of the 1950-2017 forest fires and their climate driving factors.A fire casualty prediction model is established.The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation among the number of forest fires,the area of forest damage,injury,death and casualties,with similar changes or linear trends.Since 1950,the number of forest fires,forest area and casualties in the country have shown a significant downward trend;After 1988,the fires are relatively small,which may be related to the fire cycle,global climate change and the national fire prevention after the "5-6" devastating fire.Policy changes are closely related.The number of forest fires in China during the period from 1950 to 1987 was positively correlated with the precipitation in the growing season,and the precipitation in the non-growth season was negatively correlated.After 1988,except for the precipitation in May and September,the occurrence of forest fires was basically negatively correlated with the precipitation.The number of forest fires in the country between 1950 and 1987 was positively correlated with the temperature at the end of the growing season.After 1988,the number of forest fires was negatively correlated with the average temperature,high temperature and low temperature of the previous year and the growing season or growing season.The reduction in combustibles caused by the negative effects can be the reason for explaining the negative correlation between temperature and the number of forest fires.The number of forest fires in the country between 1950 and 1987 was positively correlated with PDSI in the previous year and reached significant levels in June,September,November and December.After 1988,the number of forest fires was negatively correlated with monthly PDSI.In the context of climate warming,the trade-off between the amount of combustibles and the moisture content is the key to the occurrence of a forest fire.The change in fire prevention policies and the "warm-dry" phenomenon triggered by high temperatures may change or challenge traditional fire-climate laws.With the duality of the impact of fires on the forest,while at the same time of fire prevention,we must increase the study of forest fires,and scientifically and rationally manage forest fires.
Based on the fire data and CRU grid meteorological data,the time characteristics,Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression analysis are used to comprehensively analyze the time characteristics of the 1950-2017 forest fires and their climate driving factors.A fire casualty prediction model is established.The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation among the number of forest fires,the area of forest damage,injury,death and casualties,with similar changes or linear trends.Since 1950,the number of forest fires,forest area and casualties in the country have shown a significant downward trend;After 1988,the fires are relatively small,which may be related to the fire cycle,global climate change and the national fire prevention after the "5-6" devastating fire.Policy changes are closely related.The number of forest fires in China during the period from 1950 to 1987 was positively correlated with the precipitation in the growing season,and the precipitation in the non-growth season was negatively correlated.After 1988,except for the precipitation in May and September,the occurrence of forest fires was basically negatively correlated with the precipitation.The number of forest fires in the country between 1950 and 1987 was positively correlated with the temperature at the end of the growing season.After 1988,the number of forest fires was negatively correlated with the average temperature,high temperature and low temperature of the previous year and the growing season or growing season.The reduction in combustibles caused by the negative effects can be the reason for explaining the negative correlation between temperature and the number of forest fires.The number of forest fires in the country between 1950 and 1987 was positively correlated with PDSI in the previous year and reached significant levels in June,September,November and December.After 1988,the number of forest fires was negatively correlated with monthly PDSI.In the context of climate warming,the trade-off between the amount of combustibles and the moisture content is the key to the occurrence of a forest fire.The change in fire prevention policies and the "warm-dry" phenomenon triggered by high temperatures may change or challenge traditional fire-climate laws.With the duality of the impact of fires on the forest,while at the same time of fire prevention,we must increase the study of forest fires,and scientifically and rationally manage forest fires.
引文
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[2] 田晓瑞,代玄,王明玉,等.多气候情景下中国森林火灾风险评估[J].应用生态学报,2016(3):769-776.
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[8] 王明玉.气候变化背景下中国林火响应特征及趋势[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2009.
[9] 陆志平,秦会斌,王春芳.无线传感器网络在森林火灾监测中的应用[J].杭州电子科技大学学报:自然科学版,2006,26(5):48-51.
[10] 才奇美.林业资源保护和森林防火管理措施探讨[J].科技创新与应用,2014(11):271.
[11] 冷慧卿,王珂君.我国森林保险费率的区域差异化——省级层面的森林火灾实证研究[J].管理世界,2011(11):49-54.
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[14] 胡海清,魏书精,孙龙.1965—2010年大兴安岭森林火灾碳排放的估算研究[J].植物生态学报,2012,36(7):629-644.
[15] 周雪,张颖.中国森林火灾风险统计分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(1):34-39.
[16] 孙龙,王千雪,魏书精,等.气候变化背景下我国森林火灾灾害的响应特征及展望[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):12-17.
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[18] 黄耀林.南方森林火灾发生原因与预防对策探讨[J].技术与市场,2016,23(1):157-158.
[19] 刘凯,刘恒旭,尹冬冬.森林火灾的危害、种类及防御措施[J].养殖技术顾问,2012(2):240.
[20] 王丽娜,王惠东,李伟光.近25年黑龙江省森林火灾发生趋势的研究[J].森林防火,2006(3):16-17.
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[22] Butt N,Bebber D P,Riutta T,et al.Relationships between tree growth and weather extremes:Spatial and interspecific comparisons in a temperate broadleaf forest[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2014,334:209-216.
[23] Zhu Liang-Jun,Jin Guang-Ze,Wang Xiao-Chun.Reconstruction of disturbance history of a typical broad-leaved Pinus koraiensis forest and mechanisms of disturbance occurrence[J].Chinese Journal ofPlant Ecology,2015,39(2):125-139.
[24] Woodward F I.Climate and Plant Distribution[J].Quarterly Review of Biology,1988,69(154):189-197.
[25] 朱良军,杨婧雯,朱辰,等.林隙干扰和升温对小兴安岭红松和臭冷杉径向生长的影响[J].生态学杂志,2015(8):2085-2095.
[26] 徐明超,马文婷.干旱气候因子与森林火灾[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(3):603-608.
[27] 刘玉佳,朱良军,苏金娟,等.模拟降水减少对帽儿山地区兴安落叶松径向生长的影响[J].生态学报,2015(13):4527-4537.
[28] 于大炮,王顺忠,唐立娜,等.长白山北坡落叶松年轮年表及其与气候变化的关系[J].应用生态学报,2005(1):14-20.
[29] 孙毓,王丽丽,陈津,等.中国落叶松属树木年轮生长特性及其对气候变化的响应[J].中国科学:地球科学,2010(5):645-653.
[2] 田晓瑞,代玄,王明玉,等.多气候情景下中国森林火灾风险评估[J].应用生态学报,2016(3):769-776.
[3] 国家林业局.中国林业统计年鉴(1998年)[M].中国林业出版社,1999.
[4] 中华人民共和国林业部.全国林业统计资料汇编:1949—1987年[M].中国林业出版社,1990.
[5] 张冬有,邓欧,李亦秋,等.黑龙江省1980—2005年森林火灾时空特征[J].林业科学,2012,48(2):175-179.
[6] Wastl C,Schunk C,Leuchner M,et al.Recent climate change:Long-term trends in meteorological forest fire danger in the Alps[J].Agricultural & Forest Meteorology.2012,(162/163):1-13.
[7] 楚艳萍,姜瑶,王旭.森林火灾危害及其预防措施[J].北京农业,2015(36):117-118.
[8] 王明玉.气候变化背景下中国林火响应特征及趋势[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2009.
[9] 陆志平,秦会斌,王春芳.无线传感器网络在森林火灾监测中的应用[J].杭州电子科技大学学报:自然科学版,2006,26(5):48-51.
[10] 才奇美.林业资源保护和森林防火管理措施探讨[J].科技创新与应用,2014(11):271.
[11] 冷慧卿,王珂君.我国森林保险费率的区域差异化——省级层面的森林火灾实证研究[J].管理世界,2011(11):49-54.
[12] 杨淑香.北京周边林分结构与森林可燃物特征的关系研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2007.
[13] 苏立娟,何友均,陈绍志.1950—2010年中国森林火灾时空特征及风险分析[J].林业科学,2015(01):88-96.
[14] 胡海清,魏书精,孙龙.1965—2010年大兴安岭森林火灾碳排放的估算研究[J].植物生态学报,2012,36(7):629-644.
[15] 周雪,张颖.中国森林火灾风险统计分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2014,29(1):34-39.
[16] 孙龙,王千雪,魏书精,等.气候变化背景下我国森林火灾灾害的响应特征及展望[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):12-17.
[17] 白帆,周大元,张丽平,等.世界森林火灾预防与监控技术概述[J].林业劳动安全,2008,21(3):20-22.
[18] 黄耀林.南方森林火灾发生原因与预防对策探讨[J].技术与市场,2016,23(1):157-158.
[19] 刘凯,刘恒旭,尹冬冬.森林火灾的危害、种类及防御措施[J].养殖技术顾问,2012(2):240.
[20] 王丽娜,王惠东,李伟光.近25年黑龙江省森林火灾发生趋势的研究[J].森林防火,2006(3):16-17.
[21] 李丽琴.云南省森林火灾发生与气象因子之间的关系研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2010.
[22] Butt N,Bebber D P,Riutta T,et al.Relationships between tree growth and weather extremes:Spatial and interspecific comparisons in a temperate broadleaf forest[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2014,334:209-216.
[23] Zhu Liang-Jun,Jin Guang-Ze,Wang Xiao-Chun.Reconstruction of disturbance history of a typical broad-leaved Pinus koraiensis forest and mechanisms of disturbance occurrence[J].Chinese Journal ofPlant Ecology,2015,39(2):125-139.
[24] Woodward F I.Climate and Plant Distribution[J].Quarterly Review of Biology,1988,69(154):189-197.
[25] 朱良军,杨婧雯,朱辰,等.林隙干扰和升温对小兴安岭红松和臭冷杉径向生长的影响[J].生态学杂志,2015(8):2085-2095.
[26] 徐明超,马文婷.干旱气候因子与森林火灾[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(3):603-608.
[27] 刘玉佳,朱良军,苏金娟,等.模拟降水减少对帽儿山地区兴安落叶松径向生长的影响[J].生态学报,2015(13):4527-4537.
[28] 于大炮,王顺忠,唐立娜,等.长白山北坡落叶松年轮年表及其与气候变化的关系[J].应用生态学报,2005(1):14-20.
[29] 孙毓,王丽丽,陈津,等.中国落叶松属树木年轮生长特性及其对气候变化的响应[J].中国科学:地球科学,2010(5):645-653.