新疆区域逐月缺测气温序列的插补及重建
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摘要
以新疆区域的墨玉站、牧气站和阿克达拉站为例,使用多元回归分析的方法对3站月平均气温缺测资料进行插补,通过基于MAE与RMISE的交叉验证及M-K突变检验和小波分析,分析3站实测月平均气温距平资料与模拟月平均气温距平资料间的误差,验证回归方法的精度.同时,使用该方法插补和重建新疆1961-2010年105个站月平均气温数据,并对插补前90个站和插补后105个站的序列进行了EOF(经验正交函数)分析,空间特征向量相似度高.结果表明:多元回归方法具有较高的精度,回归方法重建新疆区域逐月气温资料能较好地反映当地月平均气温变化规律及特征,重建逐月气温资料与实测逐月气温误差在信度范围内,重建后的完整序列可作为气候变化业务及科学研究基础数据集.
Based on the contrast between the measured monthly mean temperature anomaly and the simulated monthly mean temperature anomaly reconstructed with multiple regression analyses at Moyu Station,Muqi Station and Akdala Station,the accuracies of the multiple regression analyses are analyze through the means of the cross-validation based on MAE and RMSIE,M-K mutation tests and wavelet analyses. Similarly,based on the analyses of EOF the contrast between the measured monthly mean temperature data from 90 weather stations and the data interpolated and reconstructed from 105 weather stations in Xinjiang also show that there is high similarity in eigenvectors. Finally,it is found that the multiple regression analysis possesses higher accuracy. The reconstructed Xinjiang monthly temperature data have reliability same as the measured monthly temperature data,which could better reflect the characteristics and variation of the monthly mean temperature and provide basic data for climate change research.
Based on the contrast between the measured monthly mean temperature anomaly and the simulated monthly mean temperature anomaly reconstructed with multiple regression analyses at Moyu Station,Muqi Station and Akdala Station,the accuracies of the multiple regression analyses are analyze through the means of the cross-validation based on MAE and RMSIE,M-K mutation tests and wavelet analyses. Similarly,based on the analyses of EOF the contrast between the measured monthly mean temperature data from 90 weather stations and the data interpolated and reconstructed from 105 weather stations in Xinjiang also show that there is high similarity in eigenvectors. Finally,it is found that the multiple regression analysis possesses higher accuracy. The reconstructed Xinjiang monthly temperature data have reliability same as the measured monthly temperature data,which could better reflect the characteristics and variation of the monthly mean temperature and provide basic data for climate change research.
引文
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[17]Liu Youcun,Liu Zhifang,Hao Yonghong,et al.Multi-time scale characteristics of the runoff in the upstream ofrümqi River,Tianshan Mountains,based on cross-wavelet transformation[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(6):1564-1572.[刘友存,刘志方,郝永红,等.基于交叉小波的天山乌鲁木齐河出山径流多尺度特征研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(6):1564-1572.]
[18]Zhao Xuan,Li Yaohui,Qi Dongmei.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Sichuan,1961-2007[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(4):959-967.[赵旋,李耀辉,齐冬梅.1961-2007年四川夏季降水的时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):959-967.]
[2]Zhang Jiabao,Shi Yuguang.Study on Climate Change and ShortTerm Climatic Forecast in Xinjiang[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2002:49-50.[张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002:49-50.]
[3]Hu Ruji,Fan Zili,Wang Yajun,et al.Assessment about the impact of climate change on environment in Xinjiang since recent50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2001,24(2):97-103.[胡汝骥,樊自立,王亚俊,等.近50 a新疆气候变化对环境影响评估[J].干旱区地理,2001,24(2):97-103.]
[4]Jia Hongtao,Zhao Chengyi,Bater Bake,et al.Observation of Xinjiang climate change and its impact on agricultural production[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2009,23(11):72-76.[贾洪涛,赵成义,巴特尔·巴克,等.新疆气候变化影响的观测事实及其对农牧业生产的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(11):72-76.]
[5]Zhou Haonan,Wang Qiuxiang,Hua Ye.Homogenization examination and corrections ofrümqi monthly air temperature data[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2012,6(1):27-30.[周昊楠,王秋香,华烨.乌鲁木齐逐月气温资料均一性检验和订正[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(1):27-30.]
[6]Wang Haijun,Tu Shiyu,Chen Zhenghong.Interpolating method for missing data of daily air temperature and its error analysis[J].Meteorological Monthly,2008,34(7):83-91.[王海军,涂诗玉,陈正洪.日气温数据缺测的插补方法试验与误差分析[J].气象,2008,34(7):83-91.]
[7]Zhang Lu,Yuan Yujiang,Wei Wenshou,et al.Reconstruct and analysis of the 336-a July and August precipitation series in Nilka Country,Xinjiang[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32(5):914-920.[张录,袁玉江,魏文寿,等.1671-2006年伊犁尼勒克地区7-8月降水序列的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(5):914-920.]
[8]Tu Qipu.Extend the interpolation method for the temperature field sequence[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,1986,9(1):19-31.[屠其璞.一种气温场序列的延长插补方法[J].南京气象学院学报,1986,9(1):19-31.]
[9]Song Chaohui,Sun Anjian.Studies of non-uniformity of temperature climatic sequence revised methodology[J].Plateau Meteorology,1995,14(2):215-219.[宋超辉,孙安健.非均一性气温气候序列订正方法的研究[J].高原气象,1995,14(2):215-219.]
[10]Zhou Ningfang,Tu Qipu,Jia Xiaolong,et al.Reconstruct the surface temperature series over the Tibetan Plateau in the recent50 years[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2004,27(5):660-666.[周宁芳,屠其璞,贾小龙,等.近50 a青藏高原地面气温序列的重建[J].南京气象学院学报,2004,27(5):660-666.]
[11]Zhang Yongling,Ding Yuguo,Gao Quanzhou,et al.The method based on SVD iteration and its application to interpolation of climate data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(3):526-532.[张永领,丁裕国,高全洲,等.一种基于SVD的迭代方法及其用于气候资料场的插补试验[J].大气科学,2006,30(3):526-532.]
[12]Yang Qing,Liu Xinchun,Huo Wen,et al.Reconstructed series of monthly average temperature from 1961 to 1998 in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert[J].Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2009,5(2):85-89.[杨青,刘新春,霍文,等.塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地1961-1998年逐月平均气温序列的重建[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(2):85-89.]
[13]Li Zhen,Jiang Fengqing.A study of abrupt climate change in Xinjiang region during 1961-2004[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2007,29(3):351-359.[李珍,姜逢清.1961-2004年新疆气候突变分析[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(3):351-358.]
[14]Zheng Jingyun,Ge Quansheng,Hao Zhixin,et al.Reconstruction of w inter mean temperature series from 1736 to 1999in Xi'an and Hanzhong[J].Geographical Research,2003,22(3):343-348.[郑景云,葛全胜,郝志新,等.1736-1999年西安与汉中地区年冬季平均气温序列重建[J].地理研究,2003,22(3):343-348.]
[15]Hu Yicheng,Wei Wenshou,Yuan Yujiang,et al.Reconstruction and analysis of January-February snowfall in the Altay Prefecture during 1818-2006[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012,34(2):319-327.[胡义成,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.基于树轮的阿勒泰地区1818-2006年1-2月降雪量重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(2):319-327.]
[16]Li Qingxiang,Huang Jiayou,Ju Xiaohui.Experimental study on reconstruction of maximum temperature data in Shanghai[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2008,24(4):349-353.[李庆祥,黄嘉佑,鞠晓慧.上海地区最高气温资料的恢复试验[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4):349-353.]
[17]Liu Youcun,Liu Zhifang,Hao Yonghong,et al.Multi-time scale characteristics of the runoff in the upstream ofrümqi River,Tianshan Mountains,based on cross-wavelet transformation[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(6):1564-1572.[刘友存,刘志方,郝永红,等.基于交叉小波的天山乌鲁木齐河出山径流多尺度特征研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(6):1564-1572.]
[18]Zhao Xuan,Li Yaohui,Qi Dongmei.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of summer precipitation in Sichuan,1961-2007[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(4):959-967.[赵旋,李耀辉,齐冬梅.1961-2007年四川夏季降水的时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):959-967.]