Spatio-temporal Variability of Disastrous Convective Weather in China from 1961 to 2016
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摘要
Based on the data of hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in 2 481 stations in China from 1961 to 2016,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,periodicity and climate abruption characteristics of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China were analyzed by various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that in time,the days of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China decreased,and the hail and thunderstorm days were characterized by " increasing firstly and then decreasing" from 1961 to 2016. The hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in China had oscillation cycles of 3-5,2-3,1-2 and 1-4 a respectively,and the hail and thunderstorm days changed suddenly in 2002 and 1992 respectively. In space,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Sichuan were the highvalue distribution areas of hail,gale and thunderstorm days. The high-value distribution areas of thunderstorm days were also distributed to the south of the Yangtze River. South China and its southwestern regions at the same latitude were the high-value distribution areas of lightning days. In terms of trend,the hail days in China showed a decreasing trend mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The gale days in China decreased in the east,was unchanged in the central region,and increased and decreased alternately in the west. The thunderstorm days in China increased in Tibet,North China,Chongqing,Zhejiang and northwestern Heilongjiang. The lightning days in China decreased obviously to the south of the Yangtze River. In terms of the fluctuation,the hail days fluctuated greatly in the southeast. The gale days fluctuated greatly to the east of Hu Huanyong line. The thunderstorms days in China fluctuated greatly in the northwest and slightly in the southeast. In addition to the small fluctuation in northern Xinjiang and South China,the lightning days fluctuated greatly in other regions of China.
Based on the data of hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in 2 481 stations in China from 1961 to 2016,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,periodicity and climate abruption characteristics of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China were analyzed by various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that in time,the days of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China decreased,and the hail and thunderstorm days were characterized by " increasing firstly and then decreasing" from 1961 to 2016. The hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in China had oscillation cycles of 3-5,2-3,1-2 and 1-4 a respectively,and the hail and thunderstorm days changed suddenly in 2002 and 1992 respectively. In space,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Sichuan were the highvalue distribution areas of hail,gale and thunderstorm days. The high-value distribution areas of thunderstorm days were also distributed to the south of the Yangtze River. South China and its southwestern regions at the same latitude were the high-value distribution areas of lightning days. In terms of trend,the hail days in China showed a decreasing trend mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The gale days in China decreased in the east,was unchanged in the central region,and increased and decreased alternately in the west. The thunderstorm days in China increased in Tibet,North China,Chongqing,Zhejiang and northwestern Heilongjiang. The lightning days in China decreased obviously to the south of the Yangtze River. In terms of the fluctuation,the hail days fluctuated greatly in the southeast. The gale days fluctuated greatly to the east of Hu Huanyong line. The thunderstorms days in China fluctuated greatly in the northwest and slightly in the southeast. In addition to the small fluctuation in northern Xinjiang and South China,the lightning days fluctuated greatly in other regions of China.
Based on the data of hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in 2 481 stations in China from 1961 to 2016,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,periodicity and climate abruption characteristics of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China were analyzed by various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that in time,the days of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China decreased,and the hail and thunderstorm days were characterized by " increasing firstly and then decreasing" from 1961 to 2016. The hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in China had oscillation cycles of 3-5,2-3,1-2 and 1-4 a respectively,and the hail and thunderstorm days changed suddenly in 2002 and 1992 respectively. In space,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Sichuan were the highvalue distribution areas of hail,gale and thunderstorm days. The high-value distribution areas of thunderstorm days were also distributed to the south of the Yangtze River. South China and its southwestern regions at the same latitude were the high-value distribution areas of lightning days. In terms of trend,the hail days in China showed a decreasing trend mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The gale days in China decreased in the east,was unchanged in the central region,and increased and decreased alternately in the west. The thunderstorm days in China increased in Tibet,North China,Chongqing,Zhejiang and northwestern Heilongjiang. The lightning days in China decreased obviously to the south of the Yangtze River. In terms of the fluctuation,the hail days fluctuated greatly in the southeast. The gale days fluctuated greatly to the east of Hu Huanyong line. The thunderstorms days in China fluctuated greatly in the northwest and slightly in the southeast. In addition to the small fluctuation in northern Xinjiang and South China,the lightning days fluctuated greatly in other regions of China.
引文
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[16]GU XH,ZHANG Q,KONG DD.Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(5):718-730.(in Chinese).
[17]KONG F,FANG J,LV LL,et al.Spatial pattern difference between contribution of short and long duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(2):293-303.(in Chinese).
[18]HUANG YX,WANG BJ,WANG YF,et al.Variation characteristics of hail days in Gansu Province during 1974-2013[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(4):450-459.(in Chinese).
[19]YANG XL,ZHOU H,YANG M,et al.Gale days in east of Hexi Corridor:Spatial-temporal distribution and effect on sand-dust weather[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2017,33(16):123-128.(in Chinese).
[20]ZHANG Y,ZHU XC.The characteristics of thunderstorms in Guangdong Province and their responses to urban heat island effect[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2017,36(12):3584-3593.(in Chinese).
[21]YANG CM,TANG ZY,ZHOU J,et al.The spatial and temporal distribution of lightning at Maanshan area in Anhui Province[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2014,8(1):23-27.(in Chinese).
[22]ZHOU Y,QIE X,SOULA S.A study of the relationship between cloudto-ground lightning and precipitation in the convective weather system in China[J].Annales Geophysicae,2002,20(1):2541-2543.
[23]CHAI DH,YANG XL,WU ZY,et al.The statistical analysis of thunderstorm gales over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2017,36(3):193-199.(in Chinese).
[24]YANG CM,MA L,CAO H.Lightning:Characteristics analysis and application in Anhui during 2010-2012[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(29):155-160.(in Chinese).
[25]WANG XZ,FENG MX,ZHONG YY,et al.The characteristic analysis lightning from 2008 and application study of to 2009 in Jiangsu[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2010,2(5):445-450.(in Chinese).
[26]TRAPP RJ,ROBINSON ED,BALDWIN ME,et al.Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,37(3):677-688.
[27]TIPPETT MK,ALLEN JT,GENSINI VA,et al.Climate and hazardous convective weather[J].Current Climate Change Reports,2015,1(2):60-73.
[28]YU HY,LI T,CHEN XJ,et al.The spatio-temporal distribution and disaster characteristics analysis of the gale in Hebei Province for nearly30 years[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(2):59-63.(in Chinese).
[29]CHEN SR,ZHU WJ,ZHOU B.Climate characteristic and variation tendency of thunderstorm in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2009,32(5):703-710.(in Chinese).
[30]WANG BJ,LIU WC,HUANG YX,et al.Climate distribution characteristics and trends of thunderstorm during 1961-2011 in Gansu,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2015,35(5):1346-1352.(in Chinese).
[31]China Meteorological Administration.Standard for ground meteorological observation[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005.(in Chinese).
[32]KONG F,LV LL,FANG J,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of different period climate warming rate in China(1961-2014)[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2017,67(4):426-435.(in Chinese).
[2]GUO DM,YANG WF,YANG S,et al.Analyses on a strong convective weather process over the Loess Plateau in China[J].Arid Zone Research,2010,27(5):793-800.
[3]ROBINSON ED,TRAPP RJ,BALDWIN ME.The geospatial and temporal distributions of severe thunderstorms from high-resolution dynamical downscaling[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climatology,2013,52(9):2147-2161.
[4]WANG LZ,CHEN LY,SHANG KZ,et al.Characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of severe convective weather and its response to climate warming in Qinghai Province[J].Arid Meteorology,2011,29(4):439-445.(in Chinese).
[5]KONG F,LI Y,WANG YF,et al.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of near-surface gale days in China from 1961 to 2016[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2017,45(31):188-196.(in Chinese).
[6]LI JL,YU Y,LIU C.Variation of thunderstorm activities and its connection to East Asian summer monsoon in transition region between QinghaiXizang Plateau and Loess Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(6):1575-1583.(in Chinese).
[7]GENSINI VA,MOTE TL.Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(17):6581-6589.
[8]IPCC SREX.Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation[M].London:Cambridge University Press,2012.
[9]IPCC AR5.Intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report(AR5)[M].London:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[10]KONG F,SHI PJ,FANG J,et al.Advances and prospects of spatiotemporal pattern variation of extreme precipitation and its affecting factors under the background of global climate change[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(2):165-174.(in Chinese).
[11]ZHU GR.Climate changes in China mainland based on K9ppen climate classification for 1961-2010[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2017.(in Chinese).
[12]ZHAO GX,YAN H,DONG WX.5 Typical strong convective weather processes in Shanxi in 2013[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(23):113-121.(in Chinese).
[13]WANG XL,YU TY,WANG ZH,et al.Analysis on climate characteristics of thunderstorm in China and effect of East Asian summer monsoon on it during 1961-2013[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2016,35(5):471-481.(in Chinese).
[14]SHI P,BAI X,KONG F,et al.Urbanization and air quality as major drivers of altered spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall in China[J].Landscape Ecology,2017,32(8):1723-1738.
[15]KONG F,LIU F,LV LL,et al.Research on spatiotemporal pattern of large-scale regional heavy rainfall in China from 1961 to 2010[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtza Basin,2017,26(4):631-640.(in Chinese).
[16]GU XH,ZHANG Q,KONG DD.Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(5):718-730.(in Chinese).
[17]KONG F,FANG J,LV LL,et al.Spatial pattern difference between contribution of short and long duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(2):293-303.(in Chinese).
[18]HUANG YX,WANG BJ,WANG YF,et al.Variation characteristics of hail days in Gansu Province during 1974-2013[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(4):450-459.(in Chinese).
[19]YANG XL,ZHOU H,YANG M,et al.Gale days in east of Hexi Corridor:Spatial-temporal distribution and effect on sand-dust weather[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2017,33(16):123-128.(in Chinese).
[20]ZHANG Y,ZHU XC.The characteristics of thunderstorms in Guangdong Province and their responses to urban heat island effect[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2017,36(12):3584-3593.(in Chinese).
[21]YANG CM,TANG ZY,ZHOU J,et al.The spatial and temporal distribution of lightning at Maanshan area in Anhui Province[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2014,8(1):23-27.(in Chinese).
[22]ZHOU Y,QIE X,SOULA S.A study of the relationship between cloudto-ground lightning and precipitation in the convective weather system in China[J].Annales Geophysicae,2002,20(1):2541-2543.
[23]CHAI DH,YANG XL,WU ZY,et al.The statistical analysis of thunderstorm gales over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2017,36(3):193-199.(in Chinese).
[24]YANG CM,MA L,CAO H.Lightning:Characteristics analysis and application in Anhui during 2010-2012[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(29):155-160.(in Chinese).
[25]WANG XZ,FENG MX,ZHONG YY,et al.The characteristic analysis lightning from 2008 and application study of to 2009 in Jiangsu[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2010,2(5):445-450.(in Chinese).
[26]TRAPP RJ,ROBINSON ED,BALDWIN ME,et al.Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,37(3):677-688.
[27]TIPPETT MK,ALLEN JT,GENSINI VA,et al.Climate and hazardous convective weather[J].Current Climate Change Reports,2015,1(2):60-73.
[28]YU HY,LI T,CHEN XJ,et al.The spatio-temporal distribution and disaster characteristics analysis of the gale in Hebei Province for nearly30 years[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(2):59-63.(in Chinese).
[29]CHEN SR,ZHU WJ,ZHOU B.Climate characteristic and variation tendency of thunderstorm in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2009,32(5):703-710.(in Chinese).
[30]WANG BJ,LIU WC,HUANG YX,et al.Climate distribution characteristics and trends of thunderstorm during 1961-2011 in Gansu,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2015,35(5):1346-1352.(in Chinese).
[31]China Meteorological Administration.Standard for ground meteorological observation[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005.(in Chinese).
[32]KONG F,LV LL,FANG J,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of different period climate warming rate in China(1961-2014)[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2017,67(4):426-435.(in Chinese).