Modeling surface fuels moisture content in Pinus brutia stands
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摘要
Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by evaluating fire spread, fireline intensity and fuel consumption.Our objective here is to model moisture content of surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine(Pinus brutia Ten.) stands in relation to weather conditions, namely temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in the Mugla province of Turkey. All surface fuels were categorized according to diameter classes and fuel types. Six fuel categories were defined: these were 0–0.3, 0.3–0.6, and0.6–1 cm diameter classes, and cone, surface litter, and duff. Plastic containers 15 9 20 cm in size with 1 9 1 mm mesh size were used. Samples were taken from 09:00 to19:00 h and weighed every 2 h with 0.01 g precision for10 days in August. At the end of the study, samples were taken to the laboratory, oven-dried at 105 °C for 24 h and weighed to obtain fuel-moisture contents. Weather measurements were taken from a fully automated weather station set up at the study site prior to the study. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out and models were developed to predict fuel moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phase for each fuel type categories. Practical fuel moisture prediction models were developed for dry period. Models were developed that performed well with reasonable accuracy, explaining up to 92 and 95.6%of the variability in fuel-moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phases, respectively. Validation of the models were conducted using an independent data set and known fuel moisture prediction models. The predictive power of the models was satisfactory with mean absolute error values being 1.48 and 1.02 for desorption and adsorption as compared to the 2.05 and 1.60 values for the Van Wagner's hourly litter moisture content prediction model. Results obtained in this study will be invaluable for fire management planning and modeling.
Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by evaluating fire spread, fireline intensity and fuel consumption.Our objective here is to model moisture content of surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine(Pinus brutia Ten.) stands in relation to weather conditions, namely temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in the Mugla province of Turkey. All surface fuels were categorized according to diameter classes and fuel types. Six fuel categories were defined: these were 0–0.3, 0.3–0.6, and0.6–1 cm diameter classes, and cone, surface litter, and duff. Plastic containers 15 9 20 cm in size with 1 9 1 mm mesh size were used. Samples were taken from 09:00 to19:00 h and weighed every 2 h with 0.01 g precision for10 days in August. At the end of the study, samples were taken to the laboratory, oven-dried at 105 °C for 24 h and weighed to obtain fuel-moisture contents. Weather measurements were taken from a fully automated weather station set up at the study site prior to the study. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out and models were developed to predict fuel moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phase for each fuel type categories. Practical fuel moisture prediction models were developed for dry period. Models were developed that performed well with reasonable accuracy, explaining up to 92 and 95.6%of the variability in fuel-moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phases, respectively. Validation of the models were conducted using an independent data set and known fuel moisture prediction models. The predictive power of the models was satisfactory with mean absolute error values being 1.48 and 1.02 for desorption and adsorption as compared to the 2.05 and 1.60 values for the Van Wagner's hourly litter moisture content prediction model. Results obtained in this study will be invaluable for fire management planning and modeling.
Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by evaluating fire spread, fireline intensity and fuel consumption.Our objective here is to model moisture content of surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine(Pinus brutia Ten.) stands in relation to weather conditions, namely temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in the Mugla province of Turkey. All surface fuels were categorized according to diameter classes and fuel types. Six fuel categories were defined: these were 0–0.3, 0.3–0.6, and0.6–1 cm diameter classes, and cone, surface litter, and duff. Plastic containers 15 9 20 cm in size with 1 9 1 mm mesh size were used. Samples were taken from 09:00 to19:00 h and weighed every 2 h with 0.01 g precision for10 days in August. At the end of the study, samples were taken to the laboratory, oven-dried at 105 °C for 24 h and weighed to obtain fuel-moisture contents. Weather measurements were taken from a fully automated weather station set up at the study site prior to the study. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out and models were developed to predict fuel moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phase for each fuel type categories. Practical fuel moisture prediction models were developed for dry period. Models were developed that performed well with reasonable accuracy, explaining up to 92 and 95.6%of the variability in fuel-moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phases, respectively. Validation of the models were conducted using an independent data set and known fuel moisture prediction models. The predictive power of the models was satisfactory with mean absolute error values being 1.48 and 1.02 for desorption and adsorption as compared to the 2.05 and 1.60 values for the Van Wagner's hourly litter moisture content prediction model. Results obtained in this study will be invaluable for fire management planning and modeling.
引文
Albini FA(1993)Dynamics and modelling of vegetation fires:observations.Wiley,Chichester,pp 39-52
Alves MVG,Batista AC,Soares RV,Ottaviano M,Marchetti M(2009)Fuel moisture sampling and modeling in Pinus elliottii engelm.Plantations based on weather conditions in paranaBrazil.IFor Biogeosci For 2:99-103
Anderson HE(1985)Moisture and fine forest fuel response.In:Donohue LR,Marin RE(eds)Conference on fire and forest meteorology.Society of American Foresters,Bethesda,pp 192-199
Anderson HE,Schuetta RD,Mutch RW(1978)Timelag and equilibrium moisture content of ponderosa pine needles.United States Department of Agriculture,Forest Service,30
Anonymous(2005)Turkish state meteorological service,Marmaris meteorological station,1975-2005 meteorological values
Bilgili E(2016)Need for fire danger rating system.In Paper presented at the international forestry symposium,Kastamonu,Turkey,7-10 December
Bilgili E,Coskuner KA(2015)Towards turkish national fire danger rating system as a decision support system.In Paper presented at the international wildland fire conference,Pyeongchang,Korea,12-16 October
Bilgili E,Kucuk O(2009)Estimating above-ground fuel biomass in young calabrian pine(Pinus brutia ten.).Energy Fuels23:1797-1800
Bilgili E,Saglam B,Kucuk O,Coskuner KA,Goltas M,Meydan C(2014)Measuring fuel moisture content in calabrian pine(Pinus brutia)stands using four methods.In:Vieagas DX(ed)VII?nternational conference on forest fire resarch.Coimbra,Portugal,p 150
Blackmarr WH(1971)Equilibrium moisture content of common fine fuels found in southeastern forests.USDA Forest Service,Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.Research paper.SE-74
Boydak M(2004)Silvicultural characteristics and natural regeneration of Pinus brutia ten.-a review.Plant Ecol 171(1):153-163
Britton CM,Countryman CM,Wright HA,Walvekar AG(1973)The effect of humidity,air temperature,and wind speed on fine fuel moisture content.Fire Technol 9(1):46-55
Byram GM(1940)Sun and wind and fuel moisture.J For38(8):639-640
Byram GM(1943)Solar radiation and forest fuel moisture.J Agric Res 67(4):149-176
Byram GM(1963)An analysis of the drying process in forest fuel material.In Paper presented at the?nternational symposium on humidity and moisture,Washington DC,20-23 May
Catchpole EA,Catchpole WR,Viney NR,McCaw WL,MarsdenSmedley JB(2001)Estimating fuel response time and predicting fuel moisture content from field data.Int J Wildl Fire10(2):215-222
Chandler C,Cheney P,Phillip T,Trabaud L,Williams D(1983)Fire in forestry:forest fire behavior and effects.Wiley-Interscience,New York,p 450
Chatto K,Tolhurst K(1997)The development and testing of the wiltronics th fine fuel moisture meter.Centre of Forest Tree Technology.Research report 46
Cheney P,Sullivan A(1997)Grassfires:fuel,weather and fire behaviour.CSIRO Publishing,Melbourne,p 150
Chuvieco E,Aguado I,Dimitrakopoulos AP(2004)Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment.Can J For Res 34(11):2284-2293
Draper NR,Smith H(1998)Applied regression analysis,3rd edn.Wiley,New York,p 736
GDF(2015)Forests and forestry in Turkey.Republic of Turkey Ministry of Forestry,General directorate of forestry in Turkey,Ankara,Turkey
Gonzalez ADR,Hidalgo JAV,Gonzalez JGA(2009)Construction of empirical models for predicting Pinus sp.Dead fine fuel moisture in NW Spain.I:response to changes in temperature and relative humidity.Int J Wildl Fire 18(1):71-83
Hatton TJ,Viney NR(1988)Modelling fine,dead,surface fuel moisture.In:Gill AM(ed)Conference on bushfire modelling and fire danger ratings systems.CSIRO,Canberra,pp 119-125
Jenkins MJ(2007)Unit 5:fuel moisture,wildland fire management and planning.Utah State University,Utah
Kucuk O,Bilgili E(2008)Crown fuel characteristics and fuel load estimates in young calabrian pine(Pinus brutia ten.)stands in northwestern Turkey.Fresenius Environ Bull17(12b):2226-2231
Kucuk O,Saglam B,Bilgili E(2007)Canopy fuel characteristics and fuel load in young black pine trees.Biotechnol Biotechnol Equip21(2):235-240
Kucuk O,Bilgili E,Saglam B(2008a)Estimating crown fuel loading for calabrian pine and anatolian black pine.Int J Wildl Fire17(1):147-154
Kucuk O,Bilgili E,Saglam B,Baskaya S,Durmaz BD(2008b)Some parameters affecting fire behavior in anatolian black pine slash.Turk J Agric For 32(2):121-129
Lopes S,Vieagas DX,Viegas MT,Lemos LD(2006)Moisture content of fine forest fuels in the central Portugal(lous)for the period 1996-2004.For Ecol Manag.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.103
Lopes S,Viegas DX,de Lemos LT,Viegas MT(2014)Equilibrium moisture content and timelag of dead pinus pinaster needles.Int JWildl Fire 23(5):721-732
Marsden-Smedley JB,Catchpole WR(2001)Fire modelling in tasmanian buttongrass moorlands.III-dead fuel moisture.Int JWildl Fire 10(2):241-253
Matthews S(2006)A process-based model of fine fuel moisture.Int JWildl Fire 15(2):155-168
Matthews S(2014)Dead fuel moisture research:1991-2012.Int JWildl Fire 23(1):78-92
Matthews S,Gould J,McCaw L(2010)Simple models for predicting dead fuel moisture in eucalyptus forests.Int J Wildl Fire19(4):459-467
McCaw WL(1997)Predicting fire spread in western australian mallee-heath shrubland.PhD,University of New South Wales
Nelson RM(1969)Some factors affecting the moisture timelags of woody materials.Forest Service,Southeastern Forest Experiment Station,U.S.Department of Agriculture
Nelson RM(1984)A method for describing equilibrium moisturecontent of forest fuels.Can J For Res 14(4):597-600
Nelson RM(2000)Prediction of diurnal change in 10-h fuel stick moisture content.Can J For Res 30(7):1071-1087
Pook EW(1993)Empirical models evaluated for prediction of fine fuel moisture in australian pinus radiata plantations.NZ J For Sci23(3):278-297
Pook EW,Gill AM(1993)Variation of live and dead fine fuel moisture in pinus-radiata plantations of the australian-capitalterritory.Int J Wildl Fire 3(3):155-168
Ray D,Nepstad D,Brando P(2010)Predicting moisture dynamics of fine understory fuels in a moist tropical rainforest system:results of a pilot study undertaken to identify proxy variables useful for rating fire danger.New Phytol 187:720-732.https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1469-8137.2010
Rossa CG,Fernandes PM,Pinto A(2015)Measuring foliar moisture content with a moisture analyzer.Can J For Res 45(6):776-781
Rothermel RC,Wilson RA,Morris GA,Sackett SS(1986)Modeling moisture-content of fine dead wildland fuels-input to the behave fire prediction system.USDA Forest Service Intermountain Research Station research paper,vol 359,pp 1-61
Saglam B,Bilgili E,Kucuk O,Durmaz BD(2006)Determination of surface fuels moisture contents based on weather conditions.For Ecol Manag 1:234.https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FORECO.2006.08.107
Saglam B,Bilgili E,Kucuk O,Durmaz BD(2008)Fire behavior in mediterranean shrub species(maquis).Afr J Biotechnol7(22):4122-4129
Schunk C,Leutner C,Leuchner M,Wastl C,Menzel A(2013)Equilibrium moisture content of dead fine fuels of selected central european tree species.Int J Wildl Fire 22(6):797-809
Scoot J,Burgan RE(2005)Standard fire behavior fuel models:a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel’s surface fire spread model.General technical report RMRS-GTR-153,p 72
Sharples JJ,McRae RHD,Weber RO,Gill AM(2009)A simple index for assessing fuel moisture content.Environ Model Softw24(5):637-646.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.012
Simard AJ(1968)The moisture content of forest fuels-I.A review of basic concepts.Canadian Department of Forest and Rural Development,Forest Fire Research Institute,p 47
Stocks BJ,Lawson BD,Alexander ME,Van Wagner CE,McAlpine RS,Lynham TJ,Dube DE(1989)The canadian forest fire danger rating system-an overview.For Chron 65(6):450-457
Sun P,Yu HZ,Jin S(2015)Predicting hourly litter moisture content of larch stands in daxinganling region,China using three vapourexchange methods.Int J Wildl Fire 24(1):114-119
Tanskanen H,Granstrom A,Venalainen A,Puttonen P(2006)Moisture dynamics of moss-dominated surface fuel in relation to the structure of picea abies and pinus sylvestris stands.For Ecol Manag 226(1-3):189-198
Van Wagner CE(1974)Structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index.Canadian Forestry Service,Petawawa Forest Experimental Station,publication 1333.Chalk River,ON
Van Wagner CE(1977)A method of computing fine fuel moisture content throughout the diurnal cycle.Canadian Forest Service.Information report,15
Van Wagner CE(1979)A laboratory study of weather effects on the drying rate of jack pine litter.Can J For Res 9(2):267-275
Viney NR(1991)A review of fine fuel moisture modelling.Int JWildl Fire 1(4):215-234
Viney NR(1992)Modelling fine fuel moisture content.PhD,University of NSW
Viney NR,Hatton TJ(1990)Modeling the effect of condensation on the moisture-content of forest litter.Agric For Meteorol51(1):51-62
Alves MVG,Batista AC,Soares RV,Ottaviano M,Marchetti M(2009)Fuel moisture sampling and modeling in Pinus elliottii engelm.Plantations based on weather conditions in paranaBrazil.IFor Biogeosci For 2:99-103
Anderson HE(1985)Moisture and fine forest fuel response.In:Donohue LR,Marin RE(eds)Conference on fire and forest meteorology.Society of American Foresters,Bethesda,pp 192-199
Anderson HE,Schuetta RD,Mutch RW(1978)Timelag and equilibrium moisture content of ponderosa pine needles.United States Department of Agriculture,Forest Service,30
Anonymous(2005)Turkish state meteorological service,Marmaris meteorological station,1975-2005 meteorological values
Bilgili E(2016)Need for fire danger rating system.In Paper presented at the international forestry symposium,Kastamonu,Turkey,7-10 December
Bilgili E,Coskuner KA(2015)Towards turkish national fire danger rating system as a decision support system.In Paper presented at the international wildland fire conference,Pyeongchang,Korea,12-16 October
Bilgili E,Kucuk O(2009)Estimating above-ground fuel biomass in young calabrian pine(Pinus brutia ten.).Energy Fuels23:1797-1800
Bilgili E,Saglam B,Kucuk O,Coskuner KA,Goltas M,Meydan C(2014)Measuring fuel moisture content in calabrian pine(Pinus brutia)stands using four methods.In:Vieagas DX(ed)VII?nternational conference on forest fire resarch.Coimbra,Portugal,p 150
Blackmarr WH(1971)Equilibrium moisture content of common fine fuels found in southeastern forests.USDA Forest Service,Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.Research paper.SE-74
Boydak M(2004)Silvicultural characteristics and natural regeneration of Pinus brutia ten.-a review.Plant Ecol 171(1):153-163
Britton CM,Countryman CM,Wright HA,Walvekar AG(1973)The effect of humidity,air temperature,and wind speed on fine fuel moisture content.Fire Technol 9(1):46-55
Byram GM(1940)Sun and wind and fuel moisture.J For38(8):639-640
Byram GM(1943)Solar radiation and forest fuel moisture.J Agric Res 67(4):149-176
Byram GM(1963)An analysis of the drying process in forest fuel material.In Paper presented at the?nternational symposium on humidity and moisture,Washington DC,20-23 May
Catchpole EA,Catchpole WR,Viney NR,McCaw WL,MarsdenSmedley JB(2001)Estimating fuel response time and predicting fuel moisture content from field data.Int J Wildl Fire10(2):215-222
Chandler C,Cheney P,Phillip T,Trabaud L,Williams D(1983)Fire in forestry:forest fire behavior and effects.Wiley-Interscience,New York,p 450
Chatto K,Tolhurst K(1997)The development and testing of the wiltronics th fine fuel moisture meter.Centre of Forest Tree Technology.Research report 46
Cheney P,Sullivan A(1997)Grassfires:fuel,weather and fire behaviour.CSIRO Publishing,Melbourne,p 150
Chuvieco E,Aguado I,Dimitrakopoulos AP(2004)Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment.Can J For Res 34(11):2284-2293
Draper NR,Smith H(1998)Applied regression analysis,3rd edn.Wiley,New York,p 736
GDF(2015)Forests and forestry in Turkey.Republic of Turkey Ministry of Forestry,General directorate of forestry in Turkey,Ankara,Turkey
Gonzalez ADR,Hidalgo JAV,Gonzalez JGA(2009)Construction of empirical models for predicting Pinus sp.Dead fine fuel moisture in NW Spain.I:response to changes in temperature and relative humidity.Int J Wildl Fire 18(1):71-83
Hatton TJ,Viney NR(1988)Modelling fine,dead,surface fuel moisture.In:Gill AM(ed)Conference on bushfire modelling and fire danger ratings systems.CSIRO,Canberra,pp 119-125
Jenkins MJ(2007)Unit 5:fuel moisture,wildland fire management and planning.Utah State University,Utah
Kucuk O,Bilgili E(2008)Crown fuel characteristics and fuel load estimates in young calabrian pine(Pinus brutia ten.)stands in northwestern Turkey.Fresenius Environ Bull17(12b):2226-2231
Kucuk O,Saglam B,Bilgili E(2007)Canopy fuel characteristics and fuel load in young black pine trees.Biotechnol Biotechnol Equip21(2):235-240
Kucuk O,Bilgili E,Saglam B(2008a)Estimating crown fuel loading for calabrian pine and anatolian black pine.Int J Wildl Fire17(1):147-154
Kucuk O,Bilgili E,Saglam B,Baskaya S,Durmaz BD(2008b)Some parameters affecting fire behavior in anatolian black pine slash.Turk J Agric For 32(2):121-129
Lopes S,Vieagas DX,Viegas MT,Lemos LD(2006)Moisture content of fine forest fuels in the central Portugal(lous)for the period 1996-2004.For Ecol Manag.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.103
Lopes S,Viegas DX,de Lemos LT,Viegas MT(2014)Equilibrium moisture content and timelag of dead pinus pinaster needles.Int JWildl Fire 23(5):721-732
Marsden-Smedley JB,Catchpole WR(2001)Fire modelling in tasmanian buttongrass moorlands.III-dead fuel moisture.Int JWildl Fire 10(2):241-253
Matthews S(2006)A process-based model of fine fuel moisture.Int JWildl Fire 15(2):155-168
Matthews S(2014)Dead fuel moisture research:1991-2012.Int JWildl Fire 23(1):78-92
Matthews S,Gould J,McCaw L(2010)Simple models for predicting dead fuel moisture in eucalyptus forests.Int J Wildl Fire19(4):459-467
McCaw WL(1997)Predicting fire spread in western australian mallee-heath shrubland.PhD,University of New South Wales
Nelson RM(1969)Some factors affecting the moisture timelags of woody materials.Forest Service,Southeastern Forest Experiment Station,U.S.Department of Agriculture
Nelson RM(1984)A method for describing equilibrium moisturecontent of forest fuels.Can J For Res 14(4):597-600
Nelson RM(2000)Prediction of diurnal change in 10-h fuel stick moisture content.Can J For Res 30(7):1071-1087
Pook EW(1993)Empirical models evaluated for prediction of fine fuel moisture in australian pinus radiata plantations.NZ J For Sci23(3):278-297
Pook EW,Gill AM(1993)Variation of live and dead fine fuel moisture in pinus-radiata plantations of the australian-capitalterritory.Int J Wildl Fire 3(3):155-168
Ray D,Nepstad D,Brando P(2010)Predicting moisture dynamics of fine understory fuels in a moist tropical rainforest system:results of a pilot study undertaken to identify proxy variables useful for rating fire danger.New Phytol 187:720-732.https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1469-8137.2010
Rossa CG,Fernandes PM,Pinto A(2015)Measuring foliar moisture content with a moisture analyzer.Can J For Res 45(6):776-781
Rothermel RC,Wilson RA,Morris GA,Sackett SS(1986)Modeling moisture-content of fine dead wildland fuels-input to the behave fire prediction system.USDA Forest Service Intermountain Research Station research paper,vol 359,pp 1-61
Saglam B,Bilgili E,Kucuk O,Durmaz BD(2006)Determination of surface fuels moisture contents based on weather conditions.For Ecol Manag 1:234.https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FORECO.2006.08.107
Saglam B,Bilgili E,Kucuk O,Durmaz BD(2008)Fire behavior in mediterranean shrub species(maquis).Afr J Biotechnol7(22):4122-4129
Schunk C,Leutner C,Leuchner M,Wastl C,Menzel A(2013)Equilibrium moisture content of dead fine fuels of selected central european tree species.Int J Wildl Fire 22(6):797-809
Scoot J,Burgan RE(2005)Standard fire behavior fuel models:a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel’s surface fire spread model.General technical report RMRS-GTR-153,p 72
Sharples JJ,McRae RHD,Weber RO,Gill AM(2009)A simple index for assessing fuel moisture content.Environ Model Softw24(5):637-646.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.10.012
Simard AJ(1968)The moisture content of forest fuels-I.A review of basic concepts.Canadian Department of Forest and Rural Development,Forest Fire Research Institute,p 47
Stocks BJ,Lawson BD,Alexander ME,Van Wagner CE,McAlpine RS,Lynham TJ,Dube DE(1989)The canadian forest fire danger rating system-an overview.For Chron 65(6):450-457
Sun P,Yu HZ,Jin S(2015)Predicting hourly litter moisture content of larch stands in daxinganling region,China using three vapourexchange methods.Int J Wildl Fire 24(1):114-119
Tanskanen H,Granstrom A,Venalainen A,Puttonen P(2006)Moisture dynamics of moss-dominated surface fuel in relation to the structure of picea abies and pinus sylvestris stands.For Ecol Manag 226(1-3):189-198
Van Wagner CE(1974)Structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index.Canadian Forestry Service,Petawawa Forest Experimental Station,publication 1333.Chalk River,ON
Van Wagner CE(1977)A method of computing fine fuel moisture content throughout the diurnal cycle.Canadian Forest Service.Information report,15
Van Wagner CE(1979)A laboratory study of weather effects on the drying rate of jack pine litter.Can J For Res 9(2):267-275
Viney NR(1991)A review of fine fuel moisture modelling.Int JWildl Fire 1(4):215-234
Viney NR(1992)Modelling fine fuel moisture content.PhD,University of NSW
Viney NR,Hatton TJ(1990)Modeling the effect of condensation on the moisture-content of forest litter.Agric For Meteorol51(1):51-62