基于模糊聚类和模糊推理的电网连锁故障预警方法
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摘要
在连锁故障研究过程中,对其可能给电网带来的风险进行预警可以引导运行人员实现科学决策,从而避免大面积停电的发生。为实现连锁故障的预警分级,首先应用模糊C均值聚类及其修正方法对连锁故障概率进行分级,然后将失负荷、低电压和过负荷指标作为输入变量,构建反映电网静态安全水平的故障严重度模糊规则和隶属函数集,应用模糊推理方法对综合严重度等级进行划分,最后将概率和严重度综合,根据最大隶属度原则确定连锁故障风险预警的等级。以IEEE-RTS79系统为算例评估了不同的初始扰动下电网发生连锁故障后的风险水平,并分析了电网运行状态的差异对连锁故障预警等级的影响,验证了算法的合理性和有效性。
To avoid blackout of power grid,during the research on cascading failure the forewarning of risk brought by it can guide the grid operation personnel to make scientific decision.Firstly,to implement the grading of forewarning of cascading failure risks the fuzzy C-means clustering and its correction are utilized to grade the probability of cascading failures;secondly,taking the indices of lost load,low voltage and overload as input variables,the fuzzy rules and membership function sets of failure severity,which can reflect static security level of power grid,are constructed and applying fuzzy inference the synthetical severity is graded;finally, synthesizing the probability of cascading failures with the severity of failure and according to the principle of the maximum membership,the forewarning levels of cascading failure risk is determined.Taking IEEE-RTS 79 system for example,the risk levels of power grid after the occurrence of cascading failures under different initial disturbances are evaluated,and the impacts of differences of power grid operating conditions on forewarning levels of cascading failures are analyzed,thus the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are verified.
To avoid blackout of power grid,during the research on cascading failure the forewarning of risk brought by it can guide the grid operation personnel to make scientific decision.Firstly,to implement the grading of forewarning of cascading failure risks the fuzzy C-means clustering and its correction are utilized to grade the probability of cascading failures;secondly,taking the indices of lost load,low voltage and overload as input variables,the fuzzy rules and membership function sets of failure severity,which can reflect static security level of power grid,are constructed and applying fuzzy inference the synthetical severity is graded;finally, synthesizing the probability of cascading failures with the severity of failure and according to the principle of the maximum membership,the forewarning levels of cascading failure risk is determined.Taking IEEE-RTS 79 system for example,the risk levels of power grid after the occurrence of cascading failures under different initial disturbances are evaluated,and the impacts of differences of power grid operating conditions on forewarning levels of cascading failures are analyzed,thus the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are verified.
引文
[1]“煤从空中走、电送全中国”可实现[EB/OL].[2012-11-11].Http://news.163.com/12/1111/03/8G0GFDQ400014AED.html.
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[4]栗秋华,周林,张凤,等.基于模糊理论和层次分析法的电力系统电压态势预警等级综合评估[J].电网技术,2008,32(4):40-45.Li Qiuhua,Zhou Lin,Zhang Feng,et al.Comprehensive evaluationof forewarning grade of voltage state and tendency in power systemsbased on fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process[J].PowerSystem Technology,2008,32(4):40-45(in Chinese).
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[10]孙强,张义斌,韩冬,等.多因素、多维度的智能电网风险评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(9):51-55.Sun Qiang,Zhang Yibin,Han Dong,et al.Multifactorial andmultidimensional risk evaluation of smart grid[J].Power SystemTechnology,2012,36(9):51-55(in Chinese).
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[14]Murata R,Endo Y,Haruyama H,et al.On fuzzy C-means for datawith tolerance[J].Advanced Computational Intelligence andIntelligent Informatics,2006,10(5):673-681.
[15]高新波.模糊聚类分析及其应用[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2004:54-57.
[16]Salim N A,Othman M M,Musirin I,et al.Cascading collapseassessment considering hidden failure[C]//International Conferenceon Informatics and Computational Intelligence.Bandung:IEEE,2011:318-323.
[17]中华人民共和国国务院.电力安全事故应急处置和调查处理条例[EB/OL].[2011-07-15].Http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2011-07/15/content_1906887.htm.
[18]Wang L X,Mendel J M.Fuzzy basis functions,universalapproximation,and orthogonal least squares learning[J].IEEE Transon Neural Networks,1992,3(5):807-814.
[19]李洪兴,彭家寅,王加银.常见模糊蕴涵算子的模糊系统及其响应函数[J].控制理论与应用,2005,22(3):341-347.Li Hongxing,Peng Jiayin,Wang Jiayin.Fuzzy systems and theirresponse functions based on commonly used fuzzy implicationoperators[J].Control Theory&Applications,2005,22(3):341-347(in Chinese).
[20]Ying Mingsheng.Implication operators in fuzzy logic[J].IEEETransactions on Fuzzy Systems,2002,10(1):88-91.
[21]Mimada,Zeng X J,Singh M G.Approximation theory of fuzzysystems-MIMO case[J].IEEE Trans on Fuzzy Systems,1995,3(2):219-235.
[22]Chen S J,Chen S M.Fuzzy risk analysis based on similaritymeasures of generalized fuzzy numbers[J].IEEE Transactions onFuzzy Systems,2003,11(1):45-55.
[23]吴旭,张建华,邱威,等.基于N-k故障的地区电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4):93-99.Wu Xu,Zhang Jianhua,Qiu Wei,et al.Vulnerability evaluation ofdistrict power grid based on N-k contingency[J].Proceedings of theCSEE,2012,32(4):93-99(in Chinese).
[24]邹欣,程林,孙元章.基于线路运行可靠性模型的电力系统连锁故障概率评估[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(13):7-11.Zou Xin,Cheng Lin,Sun Yuanzhang.Cascading failure probabilisticassessment of power systems based on operational reliability modelfor transmission lines[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(13):7-11(in Chinese).
[2]Report of The Enquiry Committee on Grid Disturbance in NorthernRegion on 30th July 2012 and in Northern,Eastern&North-EasternRegion on 31st July 2012[R].New Delhi,India:The EnquiryCommittee,2012.
[3]张菁,杨明皓.基于模糊聚类的电力系统载荷能力安全预警方法[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(22):31-35.Zhang Jing,Yang Minghao.Security forewarning method ofmaximum load capacity based on fuzzy clustering[J].Automation ofElectric Power Systems,2007,31(22):31-35(in Chinese).
[4]栗秋华,周林,张凤,等.基于模糊理论和层次分析法的电力系统电压态势预警等级综合评估[J].电网技术,2008,32(4):40-45.Li Qiuhua,Zhou Lin,Zhang Feng,et al.Comprehensive evaluationof forewarning grade of voltage state and tendency in power systemsbased on fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process[J].PowerSystem Technology,2008,32(4):40-45(in Chinese).
[5]王玉梅,赵铁英.基于模糊层次分析法的煤矿电网电压态势预警研究[J].工矿自动化,2009,17(8):l-5.Wang Yumei,Zhao Tieying.Research of voltage state and tendencyforewarning in coal mine power network based on fuzzy theory andanalysis hierarchy process[J].Industry and Mine Automation,2009,17(8):l-5(in Chinese).
[6]刘宝柱,朱涛,于继来.电力系统电压态势预警等级的多级模糊综合评判[J].电网技术,2005,29(24):31-36.Liu Baozhu,Zhu Tao,Yu Jilai.Multilevel fuzzy comprehensiveassessment for forewarning grade of voltage state and tendency inpower systems[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(24):31-36(inChinese).
[7]刘文博,张伯明,吴文传,等.在线静态电压稳定预警与预防控制系统[J].电网技术,2008,32(17):6-11.Liu Wenbo,Zhang Boming,Wu Wenchuan,et al.An on-line earlywarning and preventive control system for static voltage stability[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(17):6-11(in Chinese).
[8]周韩,刘东,吴子美,等.电力系统安全预警评估指标及其应用[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(20):45-48.Zhou Han,Liu Dong,Wu Zimei,et al.Power system security alarmassessment index and its application[J].Automation of ElectricPower Systems,2007,31(20):45-48(in Chinese).
[9]刘新东,江全元,曹一家,等.基于风险理论和模糊推理的电力系统暂态安全风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(2):15-20.Liu Xindong,Jiang Quanyuan,Cao Yijia,et al.Transient security riskassessment of power system based on risk theory and fuzzyreasoning[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2009,29(2):15-20(in Chinese).
[10]孙强,张义斌,韩冬,等.多因素、多维度的智能电网风险评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(9):51-55.Sun Qiang,Zhang Yibin,Han Dong,et al.Multifactorial andmultidimensional risk evaluation of smart grid[J].Power SystemTechnology,2012,36(9):51-55(in Chinese).
[11]Mei S W,He F,Wu S Y.An improved OPA model and blackout riskassessment[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2009,24(2):814-823.
[12]Phadke A G,Thorp J S.Expose hidden failures to prevent cascadingoutages[J].IEEE Computer Application in Power,1996,9(3):20-23.
[13]邓慧琼,艾欣,余洋洋,等.电网连锁故障的概率分析模型及风险评估[J].电网技术,2008,32(15):41-46.Deng Huiqiong,Ai Xin,Yu Yangyang,et al.Probability analysismodel and risk assessment of power system cascading failure[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(15):41-46(in Chinese).
[14]Murata R,Endo Y,Haruyama H,et al.On fuzzy C-means for datawith tolerance[J].Advanced Computational Intelligence andIntelligent Informatics,2006,10(5):673-681.
[15]高新波.模糊聚类分析及其应用[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2004:54-57.
[16]Salim N A,Othman M M,Musirin I,et al.Cascading collapseassessment considering hidden failure[C]//International Conferenceon Informatics and Computational Intelligence.Bandung:IEEE,2011:318-323.
[17]中华人民共和国国务院.电力安全事故应急处置和调查处理条例[EB/OL].[2011-07-15].Http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2011-07/15/content_1906887.htm.
[18]Wang L X,Mendel J M.Fuzzy basis functions,universalapproximation,and orthogonal least squares learning[J].IEEE Transon Neural Networks,1992,3(5):807-814.
[19]李洪兴,彭家寅,王加银.常见模糊蕴涵算子的模糊系统及其响应函数[J].控制理论与应用,2005,22(3):341-347.Li Hongxing,Peng Jiayin,Wang Jiayin.Fuzzy systems and theirresponse functions based on commonly used fuzzy implicationoperators[J].Control Theory&Applications,2005,22(3):341-347(in Chinese).
[20]Ying Mingsheng.Implication operators in fuzzy logic[J].IEEETransactions on Fuzzy Systems,2002,10(1):88-91.
[21]Mimada,Zeng X J,Singh M G.Approximation theory of fuzzysystems-MIMO case[J].IEEE Trans on Fuzzy Systems,1995,3(2):219-235.
[22]Chen S J,Chen S M.Fuzzy risk analysis based on similaritymeasures of generalized fuzzy numbers[J].IEEE Transactions onFuzzy Systems,2003,11(1):45-55.
[23]吴旭,张建华,邱威,等.基于N-k故障的地区电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4):93-99.Wu Xu,Zhang Jianhua,Qiu Wei,et al.Vulnerability evaluation ofdistrict power grid based on N-k contingency[J].Proceedings of theCSEE,2012,32(4):93-99(in Chinese).
[24]邹欣,程林,孙元章.基于线路运行可靠性模型的电力系统连锁故障概率评估[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(13):7-11.Zou Xin,Cheng Lin,Sun Yuanzhang.Cascading failure probabilisticassessment of power systems based on operational reliability modelfor transmission lines[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(13):7-11(in Chinese).