摘要
"一带一路"倡议的提出兼具改善地缘环境和拉动对外投资的目的。然而,现有研究较少采取地缘战略视角分析"一带一路"倡议对于中国向"一带一路"沿线国家投资的影响。本文基于中国对外投资数据,通过整合政治地理学和经济地理学的相关研究成果,运用双重差分的面板回归模型考察"一带一路"倡议对中国在"一带一路"沿线国家投资的政策效应。研究发现,"一带一路"倡议提出后中国向中亚和西亚地区的投资比"一带一路"沿线其他国家增长更快,说明地缘战略对中国海外投资有重要影响;此外,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的投资受中国与东道国经贸联系和东道国市场规模的影响,但是地理邻近性、东道国的制度环境和东道国自然资源等因素的影响不显著。本研究对于加强政治地理和经济地理的结合和制定中国对"一带一路"沿线国家投资政策等有参考意义。
As one of the major national strategies in China, the "Belt & Road"(B&R) initiative is expected to promote China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI). However, with most existing studies focusing on the spatial distribution of China's OFDI among the B&R countries, few have examined whether the B&R initiative really cause more investment from China to the B&R countries and whether the investments in some pivotal regions grow faster than other regions after the declaration of B&R initiative. This paper tries to narrow this gap by integrating the theoretical and empirical findings in geopolitical studies and research on OFDI and examining the spatial difference and determinants of China's OFDI in the B&R countries based on the difference in difference(DID) method. It is found that the China's OFDI in the B&R countries grew rapidly after the declaration of the B&R initiative; however, the central and western Asia tends to attract more investments from China after controlling the effects of other variables, because of the importance of this region in geopolitics and the supportive policies made by Chinese government.
引文
[1]刘卫东,宋周莺,刘志高,等.“一带一路”建设研究进展[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):620-636.[Liu Weidong,Song Zhouying,Liu Zhigao,et al.Progress in research on the Belt and Road Initiative[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(4):620-636.]
[2]邹嘉龄,刘春腊,尹国庆,等.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局及其经济贡献[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(5):598-605.[Zou Jialing,Liu Chunla,Yin Guoqing,et al.Spatial patterns and economic effects of China's trade with countries along the Belt and Road[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(5):598-605.]
[3]郑蕾,刘志高.中国对“一带一路”沿线直接投资空间格局[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(5):563-570.[Zheng Lei,Liu Zhigao.Spatial pattern of Chinese outward direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative area[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(5):563-570.]
[4]刘晓凤,葛岳静,赵亚博.国家距离与中国企业在“一带一路”投资区位选择[J].经济地理,2017,37(11):99-108.[Liu Xiaofeng,Ge Yuejing,Zhao Yabo.National distance and Chinese companies'choice of location along the Belt and Road[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(11):99-108.]
[5]王丰龙,张衔春,杨林川,等.尺度理论视角下的“一带一路”战略解读[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):502-511.[Wang Fenglong,Zhang Xianchun,Yang Linchuan,et al.Rescaling and scalar politics in the'One Belt,One Road'strategy[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):502-511.]
[6]洪菊花,骆华松,梁茂林,等.“一带一路”重大项目地缘风险研究[J].人文地理,2018,33(1):130-136.[Hong Juhua,Luo Huasong,Liang Maolin,et al.Study on the geopolitical risks of major projects of'The Belt and Road Initiative'[J].Human Geography,2018,33(1):130-136.]
[7]曾刚,赵海,胡浩.“一带一路”倡议下中国海外园区建设与发展报告(2018)[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2018:1-135.[Zeng Gang,Zhao Hai,Hu Hao.Report on Construction and Development of China's Overseas Industrial Parks under the Belt and Road Initiatives(2018)[M].Beijing:China Social Sciences Publishing House,2018:1-135.]
[8]赵亚博,刘晓凤,葛岳静.“一带一路”沿线国家油气资源分布格局及其与中国合作中的相互依赖关系[J].地理研究,2017,36(12):2305-2320.[Zhao Yabo,Liu Xiaofeng,Ge Yuejing.Analysis of the oil and gas resource distribution pattern along the Belt and Road and the interdependence relationship with China[J].Geographical Research,2017,36(12):2305-2320.]
[9]郭烨,许陈生.双边高层会晤与中国在“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资[J].国际贸易问题,2016(2):26-36.[Guo Ye,Xu Chensheng.Meetings between high-ranking officials and China's OFDI in countries along the Belt and Road Route[J].Journal of International Trade,2016(2):26-36.]
[10]方慧,赵甜.中国企业对“一带一路”国家国际化经营方式研究--基于国家距离视角的考察[J].管理世界,2017(7):17-23.[Fang Hui,Zhao Tian.Research on forms of internationalization of Chinese firms in the"Belt and Road"countries:Perspective of inter-national distance[J].Management World,2017(7):17-23.]
[11]梁育填,刘鲁论,柳林,等.广东省与“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)出口贸易格局的时空变化[J].热带地理,2015,35(5):664-670.[Liang Yutian,Liu Lulun,Liu Lin,et al.Spatial and temporal changes in the pattern of export trade between Guangdong province and the countries along"One Belt and One Road"[J].Tropical Geography,2015,35(5):664-670.]
[12]宋涛.中国对缅甸直接投资的发展特征及趋势研究[J].世界地理研究,2016,25(4):40-47.[Song Tao.Research on the current situation and trends of China's direct investment in Myanmar[J].World Regional Studies,2016,25(4):40-47.]
[13]杜德斌,马亚华.“一带一路”:中华民族复兴的地缘大战略[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1005-1014.[Du Debin,Ma Yahua.One Belt and One Road:The grand geo-strategy of China's rise[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(6):1005-1014.]
[14]陆大道.当代中国的全球观念与全球战略[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):483-490.[Lu Dadao.The global concept and strategy of contemporary China:Analysis on the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment of the'Belt and Road Initiative'[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):483-490.]
[15]Harvey D.The New Imperialism[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2003:1-236.
[16]Yeung H W-C.Capital,state and space:Contesting the borderless world[J].Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers,1998,23(3):291-309.
[17]Brenner N.Global cities,glocal states:Global city formation and state territorial restructuring in contemporary Europe[J].Review of International Political Economy,1998,5(1):1-37.
[18]Brenner N.Between fixity and motion:Accumulation,territorial organization and the historical geography of spatial scales[J].Environment and Planning D:Society and Space,1998,16(4):459-481.
[19]MacKinnon D,Phelps N A.Devolution and the territorial politics of foreign direct investment[J].Political Geography,2001,20(3):353-379.
[20]Wójcik D,MacDonald-Korth D,Zhao S X.The political-economic geography of foreign exchange trading[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2017,17(2):267-286.
[21]MacKinnon D,Cumbers A,Pike A,et al.Evolution in economic geography:Institutions,political economy,and adaptation[J].Economic Geography,2009,85(2):129-150.
[22]宋涛,程艺,刘卫东,等.中国边境地缘经济的空间差异及影响机制[J].地理学报,2017,72(10):1731-1745.[Song Tao,Cheng Yi,Liu Weidong,et al.The spatial disparity and impact mechanism of geoeconomy in the border areas of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(10):1731-1745.]
[23]宋长青,葛岳静,刘云刚,等.从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径[J].地理研究,2018,37(1):3-19.[Song Changqing,Ge Yuejing,Liu Yungang,et al.Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the geo-relation perspective[J].Geographical Research,2018,37(1):3-19.]
[24]科林·弗林特,张晓通.“一带一路”与地缘政治理论创新[J].外交评论,2016(3):1-24.[Flint Colin,Zhang Xiaotong."One Belt One Road"and innovation of geopolitical theories[J].Foreign Affairs Review,2016(3):1-24.]
[25]王晓文.“霸权稳定论”与西方跨国公司对外投资行为[J].理论视野,2008(8):49-51.[Wang Xiaowen.Hegemonic stability theory and foreign investment of western multi-national corporations[J].Theoretical Horizon,2008(8):49-51.]
[26]毛汉英.中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(3):289-302.[Mao Hanying.Geopolitical and geoeconomic situation in the surrounding areas and China's strategies[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(3):289-302.]
[27]Mackinder H J.The geographical pivot of history(1904)[J].The Geographical Journal,2004,170(4):298-321.
[28]Fairgrieve J.Geography and World Power[M].London:University of London Press,1915:1-358.
[29]Spykman N J.The Geography of the Peace[M].New York:Harcourt Brace and Company,1944:1-66.
[30]Cohen S B.Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations(3rd ed.)[M].Lanham:Rowman&Littlefield,2015:1-465.
[31]Brzezinski Z.The Grand Chessboard:American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives[M].New York:Basic books,2016:1-215.
[32]高飞.中国的“西进”战略与中美俄中亚博弈[J].外交评论(外交学院学报),2013(5):39-50.[Gao Fei.China's westward strategy and the bargaining in the central Asia among China,US and Russia[J].Foreign Affairs Review,2013(5):39-50.]
[33]王辑思.“西进”,中国地缘战略的再平衡[EB/OL].(2012-10-17)[2018-12-17].http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2012-10/3193760.html.[Wang Jisi.Going West:Re-balance of China's geopolitical strategy[EB/OL].(2012-10-17)[2018-12-17].http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2012-10/3193760.html.]
[34]袁剑.连续性与断裂性--近代中国知识视野下的“中亚”范畴流变[J].青海民族研究,2016,27(4):137-140.[Yuan Jian.Continuity and breakability:The transition of the recognition of"Central Asia"by the modem China's intelligentsia[J].Qinghai Journal of Ethnology,2016,27(4):137-140.]
[35]何文彬.论“中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊”建设推进中的基础与障碍[J].经济体制改革,2017(3):59-67.[He Wenbin.Analysis of the foundation and obstacles in the construction of"China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor"[J].Reform of Economic System,2017(3):59-67.]
[36]郑安光.简析“一带一路”背景下中国的中亚战略“新常态”[J].当代世界与社会主义,2015(4):26-31.[Zheng Anguang.Analysis of the"New Normal"of China's central Asia strategy in the context of"Belt&Road"Initiative[J].Contemporary World and Socialism,2015(4):26-31.]
[37]黄晓燕,秦放鸣.中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊建设:基础、挑战与路径[J].改革与战略,2018,34(2):68-73.[Huang Xiaoyan,Qin Fangming.Development of China-central Asia-west Asia economic corridor:Foundations,challenges and routes[J].Reformation&Strategy,2018,34(2):68-73.]
[38]Fitch Soultions.One Belt One Road:Central Asia as largest mining beneficiary[EB/OL].(2018-07-10)[2019-12-03].https://www.fitchsolutions.com/corporates/metals-mining/one-belt-one-road-centralasia-largest-mining-beneficiary-10-07-2018.
[39]Eisemann J,Heginbotham E,Mitchell D.China and the Developing World:Beijing's Strategy for the Twenty-first Century[M].New York:M.E.Sharpe,2015:1-222.
[40]张鹏辉.中国对阿拉伯国家政策文件[EB/OL].(2016-01-14)[2018-05-01].https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/zchj/zcfg/8068.html.[Zhang Penghui.China's policy on Arab countries[EB/OL].(2016-01-14)[2018-05-01].https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/zchj/zcfg/8068.html.]
[41]李悦,杨殿中.中国对中亚五国直接投资的现状、存在的问题及对策建议[J].经济研究参考,2014(21):62-75.[Li Yue,Yang Dianzhong.China's investment in the five countries in central Asia:Status,problems and suggestions[J].Review of Economic Research,2014(21):62-75.]
[42]杨丽君.“一带一路”背景下我国对中亚五国直接投资及政治风险防范策略[J].学术探索,2018(1):20-24.[Yang Lijun.Analysis of the political risk and prevention strategies of the foreign direct investment made by China in five central Asian countries under"The Belt and Road"Initiative[J].Academic Exploration,2018(1):20-24.]
[43]金仁淑.中日对中亚五国经贸合作比较--略论“一带一路”构想与实践[J].日本学刊,2016(3):97-114.[Jin Renshu.A comparative study of Chinese and Japanese economic relations with central Asia:From the perspective of the Road and Belt initiative and practice[J].Japanese Studies,2016(3):97-114.]
[44]Poston D L,Wong J H.The Chinese diaspora:The current distribution of the overseas Chinese population[J].Chinese Journal of Sociology,2016,2(3):348-373.
[45]刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(5):538-544.[Liu Weidong.Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(5):538-544.]
[46]公丕萍,宋周莺,刘卫东.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易的商品格局[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(5):571-580.[Gong Peiping,Song Zhouying,Liu Weidong.Commodity structure of trade between China and countries in the Belt and Road Initiative area[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(5):571-580.]
[47]李郇,徐现祥.中国撤县(市)设区对城市经济增长的影响分析[J].地理学报,2015,70(8):1202-1214.[Li Xun,Xu Xianxiang.Impact analysis of turning counties(cities)into districts to the urban economic growth in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(8):1202-1214.]
[48]刘懿.外资企业集聚对本土企业国有占股比例的影响--基于区域禀赋差异分析[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1721-1732.[Liu Yi.An empirical analysis of foreign firm presence on privatization in China:The role of regional endowment[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(9):1721-1732.]
[49]王洁玉,郭琪,周沂,等.市场分割对中国制造业增长的影响--区域与产业差异[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(11):1592-1601.[Wang Jieyu,Guo Qi,Zhou Yi,et al.Impact of market segmentation on growth of manufacturing industry in China:Regional and industrial differences[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(11):1592-1601.]
[50]Dunning J H.The determinants of international production[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1973,25(3):289-336.
[51]Bénassy-QuéréA,Coupet M,Mayer T.Institutional determinants of foreign direct investment[J].World Economy,2007,30(5):764-782.
[52]Si Y,Liefner I,Wang T.Foreign direct investment with Chinese characteristics:A middle path between Ownership-Location-Internalization model and Linkage-Leverage-Learning model[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2013,23(5):594-606.
[53]杨文龙,杜德斌,游小珺,等.世界跨国投资网络结构演化及复杂性研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(9):1300-1309.[Yang Wenlong,Du Debin,You Xiaojun,et al.Network structure evolution and spatial complexity of global transnational investment[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(9):1300-1309.]
[54]Buckley P J,Yu P,Liu Q,et al.The institutional influence on the location strategies of multinational enterprises from emerging economies:Evidence from China's cross-border mergers and acquisitions[J].Management and Organization Review,2016,12(3):425-448.
[55]张亚斌.“一带一路”投资便利化与中国对外直接投资选择--基于跨国面板数据及投资引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016(9):165-176.[Zhang Yabin.The investment facilitation of"One Belt One Road"and choices of China's foreign direct investment-empirical analysis based on cross-panel data and investment gravity model[J].Journal of International Trade,2016(9):165-176.]
[56]宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究,2012(5):71-82.[Zong Fangyu,Lu Jiangyong,Wu Changqi.Bilateral investment treaties,institutional environment and outward FDI location choices of firms:An empirical study of Chinese listed firms[J].Economic Research Journal,2012(5):71-82.]
[57]张圣鹏.2015年哈萨克斯坦吸引外国投资下降30-40%[EB/OL].(2016-01-19)[2018-05-01].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/e/201601/20160101237963.shtml.[Zhang Shengpeng.FDI in Kazakhstan reduced by 30-40%in 2015[EB/OL].(2016-01-19)[2018-05-01].http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/i/jyjl/e/201601/20160101237963.shtml.]
[58]王惜梦.英媒:中企2015年对哈萨克斯坦投资达12亿美元[EB/OL].(2016-06-08)[2018-05-01].http://www.cankaoxiaoxi.com/china/20160608/1185697.shtml.[Wang Ximeng.British media says that Chinese firms invest 1.2 billion dollars in Kazakhstan in 2015[EB/OL].(2016-06-08)[2018-05-01].http://www.cankaoxiaoxi.com/China/20160608/1185697.shtml.]
[59]王碧珺,李冉,张明.成本压力、吸收能力与技术获取型OFDI[J].世界经济,2018,41(4):99-123.[Wang Bijun,Li Ran,Zhang Ming.Cost pressure,absorptive capacity and Chinese technology-seeking OFDI[J].The Journal of World Economy,2018,41(4):99-123.]